Bahia draws a Blanca

Today's Analysis:
Taunton, 1:10
This is a class 3 novice hurdle for mares only and raced over 2m 3f, and today the going at Taunton is officially soft. Over Sixty will be the red hot favourite for this race, but at a prohibitively short price. I am going to play the odds in our favour and go for BAHIA BLANCA at a double figure price. She competed in a similar race earlier this month, and should have benefited from the run.
Verdict:
Back Bahaia Blanca at 12/1 (13.00) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 2:50
A class 4 handicap chase over 2m 7f. The forecast favourite is Iris's Prince but my preference is for the forecast second favourite ENROBLIM TROP He comes here off the back of a win under similar going at Folkestone at the beginning of the month.
Verdict:
Back Enroblim Trop at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 3:25
Bumper races are typically unreliable as betting heats, with little form history to draw upon. If you do decide to play, often it is useful to see how the market is shaping up before making any final decisions. Pepe Simo from the Paul Nicholls yard will probably be odds on favourite this afternoon, which is ridiculously short with so many unknowns in the field. Instead, I shall go for PIPE BANNER for a bit of value.
Verdict:
Back Pipe Banner at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd

Monday horse racing summary

Musselburgh, 12:10
This is a class 5 maiden hurdle run over 2m 4f and the going at Musselburgh today is described as good to firm. Broadway Star is the likely favourite but my preference is for FORTYSECOND STREET He has had a run in public to get used to the race day atmosphere, and he will have come on for that run, and Howard Johnson has a good record at this track.
Verdict:
Back Fortysecond Street at 5/2 (3.50) Result: WON at 11/4

Newbury, 12:30
A class 3 novice chase, and the going today at Newbury is described as good to soft. PLANET OF SOUND has won at this level over hurdles, and returned a solid performance in his chasing debut at Sandown last month.
Verdict:
Back Planet Of Sound at 2/1 (3.00) Result: WON at 13/8F

Musselburgh, 12:45
Snowy is likely to be sent off the favourite for this class 4 handicap chase over 3m. However, I think it may be worth siding with OH YAH DANCER from the Nicky Richards yard. He is well treated based on his hurdles form, and if he can take to fences he will be a contender at a decent price.
Verdict:
Back Oh Yah Dancer at 13/2 (7.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 1:35
Despite only five runners this chase promises to be very competitive. Gone To Lunch will probably start as favourite, but I am going to look elsewhere in the field for the winner. Trigger The Light is tempting but I am going for MR POINTMENT He finished runner up in a class 1 chase recently, so I'm hoping he can take this class 2 race this afternoon.
Verdict:
Back Mr Pointment at 7/2 (4.50) Result: 2nd at 3/1

Newbury, 2:10
This is a class 2 hurdle race over 2m. Dave's Dream will probably be the market choice but I am plumping for CHINA GOLD saddled by Alan King. He shaped well in a class 3 maiden race last time out, and although today's race represents a step up in class, Alan King knows how to ready his horses.
Verdict:
Back China Gold at 4/1 (5.00) Result: 2nd at 9/4

Newbury, 2:45
This is a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m 5f and looks to be between Diamond Harry and MASSASOIT The morning prices show the market is heavily in favour of Diamond Harry, and it looks like he will go off at odds on. I am going to take the resultant value as the price on Massasoit is pushed out.
Verdict:
Back Massasoit at 5/2 (3.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:15
This is a class 3 novices handicap chase over 2m 6f. The two that take my eye are Calusa Caldera and NORTH ISLAND and I shall nominate the latter because after winning his chasing debut he is well treated compared to his hurdle form.
Verdict:
Back North Island 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced 9/2

Musselburgh, 3:30
This is a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m. Kyber from the Jim Goldie yard will likely start as favourite, but I am looking further down the field at a horse called MASAFI saddled by Howard Johnson. He is dropping back in class today, and I think a race such as this is within his compass.
Verdict:
Back Masafi at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:50
Silver Blondin is the forecast favourite for the bumper, but my preference is for CHAPOLIMOSS ridden by Robert Thornton. The price seems good value to me for a horse from a yard that knows how to produce horses for National Hunt Flat races.
Verdict:
Back Chapolimoss at 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced

Sunday 21st December

Carlisle, 12:50 Skippers Brig lines up for a class 3 novice chase over 2m 4f in heavy going. He won his chasing debut at this course last month, in similar conditions, so deserves his place at the top of the market. Verdict: Back at 9/4 (3.25) Result: Won at 15/8

Carlisle, 1:25 This is a handicap chase over 3m. Nelliedonethat is the likely favourite. He has yet to win over fences, and has been put up 3lbs since his latest run. I think the heavy going and the extra weight will prove too much for him. Verdict: Lay at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd at 9/4JF

Carlisle, 1:55 Another handicap chase, this time over 3m 2f. Royal Mackintosh will probably be sent off the favourite. So far his winning form is a couple of class 4 chases in novice company, so a win today would represent a career best performance. I would be tempted to lay him to lose at a short enough price. Verdict: Lay at 6/4 (2.50) Result: Won at 13/8F

Carlisle, 2:25 This is another handicap chase, and this time for mares only. Rosie All Over will be a short priced favourite and considering she has not won in this level of company before, over hurdles nor fences, I think the value would be to oppose her. Verdict: Lay at evens (2.00) Result: Lost at 6/4F

Carlisle, 3:00 Deuteronomy contests this handicap chase over 2m 4f. He has the form in the book to win this kind of race so is worth a punt. Verdict: Back at 9/2 (5.50) Result: Lost at 7/2

Carlisle, 3:30 To conclude an afternoon of handicap chases, yet another handicap chase! Nicozetto won last time out, and can handle heavy going. I am a little concerned about the sharp trip, as he has been contesting races up at 3m of late. But he could prove good value. Verdict: Back at 6/1 (7.00) Result: Lost at 11/2

Account Bets:
Carlisle 3:00, Deuteronomy: back to win at 9/2 (5.50) or better
Carlisle 3:30, Nicozetto: back to win at 6/1 (7.00) or better

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I picked the right Charlie

Another solid performance today, and just over 2 points profit to show for my efforts. My first selection didn't reach my advised price, so goes down as a 'no bet'. This was followed by a losing bet, but happily I finished the day with a winner at Southwell. You would be skint following Charles Parnell blindly, but he was back down to a winning mark today in a class 5 handicap. Today's race was particularly weak, and was never going to take a special horse to win, and at better than 3/1 I thought his price was representing good value. He followed up his recent second with a win today, and ensured I returned a profit for the day.

Profit so far this month: 10 points
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I'm definitely not Bleu

A good start to a new month, with both the back-to-win account, and the lay-to-lose account returning a profit. This morning I suggested three horses we should back, and two of them duly went on to win. First up was Don't Be Bleu at Folkestone. Making his chasing debut, he had three wins at this level over hurdles, so I felt a price of 2/1 was ample if he could only translate his hurdling ability to fences. It was a good choice as he came home the winner. This was followed up by SingleB winning at Wolverhampton.

I proposed just the one lay bet today, namely the race favourite Dayia in the 3:40 race. The horse lost, and presented me with another 4 points profit.

Total profit so far this month: 8 points
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