Hector the right Choice

The lay bets continue on smoking hot form, and I had a good return from the win bets as well today. I proposed three horses to back in the morning, the first two were unsuccessful, but then Hectors Choice lined up for the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at Newbury. Trainer Philip Hobbs has a good winning record in this race, and this French horse showed promise in his first race in this country at Exeter last month. The early boards were offering 4/1 which I felt was good value, and I suggested getting on at 7/2 or better. It was a rewarding bet as the gelding came home in front.

My lay bets returned a juicy 17 points profit, despite my last selection winning at Great Leighs.

Profit so far this month: 110 points
.

Wednesday horse racing summary and weekly results

An uninspiring day today, three bets losing, and three points profit lost. One of my suggested bets was to back Flake in a class 3 handicap chase at Wetherby. He has winning form over fences at this level, and so I saw his double figure price as particularly good value. However, he ended up the last horse to cross the finish line, I couldn't have been more wrong, and it was then clear why he was priced in double figures! Where did I put that crystal ball?

I did not propose any lay bets today.

Results from the last 7 days

I've produced four winners from nineteen Back-To-Win bets this past week, and just about broken even with a little over a single point profit. Not great, but treading water is still preferable to drowning.

The Lay Bets have continued to prove lucrative, and my six succesful lay bets from a total of nine have returned a fraction under 19 points profit.

Weekly profit results: Win Bets 1pt, Lay Bets 18 pts

Total profit so far this month: 91 pts
.

Go, go Vogarth

A most satisfying day at the office today, with more than 30 points profit to stuff away in the satchel. The day started well at Southwell as I suggested backing Vogarth in the amateur riders handicap race over a mile. The gelding had showed promise recently finishing in runner up spot a couple of times in course and distance maidens. Although only a speculative punt to take victory, I felt that the 8/1 available this morning was much too high a price, and he was the value bet. Make this kind of bet consistently and over time you will win more than you give back. My other win bet came second at 16/1

To cement a fine day's work, all three of my lay bets lost, and at advised stakes returned another 25 ponts profit.

Profit so far this month: 94 points
.

Monday horse racing summary

By contrast to last week when I had a day when every selection won, today all my selections lost. But just like last week this was good and bad news. The bad news this time was that all three of my back-to-win selections lost, and three points came off the account.

However, my two lay-to-lose selections also came a cropper, good news! I advised a maximum lay bet against Merrydown in the novices hurdle at Ayr. He won last time out, and also at this level, but today's race distance represented a marked drop back in trip. He was forecast to be odds on which given the question mark over the trip made it a no-brainer to lay. Laying at odds on meant we could leverage the stake, and when he finished only third we collected 12 points profit. My other lay bet also lost to give me a bonus 2 points.

11 points profit in total from my efforts today, so I'm a happy bunny.

Profit so far this month: 61 points
.

Monday horse racing summary

A small profit was the result of my punting efforts this afternoon. I proposed three win bets and found a winner in Woolston Ferry at Wolverhampton. Earlier I had suggested backing Marleybow at Carlisle. Owner Graham Wylie clearly thought a lot of this horse when entering him in a couple of Grade 2 hurdle races earlier this year. This exercise ended in disappointment and Howard Johnson has now switched him to chases. Today was a class 3 novice chase event, and Howard Johnson enjoys particular success at this northern track, so I felt the price of 7/2 to 4/1 generally available was quite generous. The booking of Tony NcCoy to ride was also encouraging. But the horse did not improve from his chasing debut as one might expect, and it was not to be. He finished fourth some distance off the winner.

Profit so far this month: 22 points
.

Wednesday horse racing summary and weekly results

A loss of 5 points from the account today, as all five of my win bets failed to score any returns. I was looking for a value bet against the long odds-on favourite Cosmea in the novice hurdle at Huntingdon. Kahsabelle was bringing some good French form on soft ground, and certainly her flat form was good enough to take a race of this class. So I took her as the best of the rest and at 10/1 I hoped she would relish her first race over hurdles. She did prove to have the beating of the rest of the field, but was unable to get the better of the favourite.

I did not propose any lay bets today.

Results from the last 7 days

I finished October with a best ever monthly profit figure of 140 points. This was due almost entirely to an outstanding performance from my Lay Bets of more than 100 points. Laying horses to lose is very often a profitable strategy when we move from the Flat season to the Jumps, and vice versa. Form is that bit more unreliable, and there are far more "talking horses" over-bet and presenting good value to oppose.

The strike rate has been poor for the Win Bets this past week. I have had twenty bets, yet only seen three winners. However, these three have returned 5 points profit, and included a 16/1 winner.

I've had eight lay bets this week, and seen six of these overturning the favourite. I took a big hit with a maximum bet at 5/2 which obviously put a sizeable dent in the account of 25 points, and as a result the Lay Bets lost 3 points overall this week.

For the time being I am happy to be basking in the (self-awarded) glory of my first 100 point month, and I hope to continue in the rich vein of form.

Weekly profit results: Win Bets 5pts, Lay Bets -3pts loss

Total profit so far this month: 0.5 pts
.

Tuesday horse racing summary

I took a big lay bet on the chin this afternoon, which left me with a loss overall to the account today of some 16 points. From the three win bets I proposed this morning, two of these managed runner-up spot, but obviously no pay out. The third did not reach my advised price, and so went down as a 'no bet'.

The lay bets started well this afternoon, and I landed a maximum bet against the odds-on favourite at Exeter According To Dick. But I also went to the maximum against Bally Conn in the stayers handicap hurdle. He was coming here off the back of a win by a narrow margin in a similar event, but had been raised by 7lbs since. I thought the handicapper may well just have got the horse pegged, especially carrying the extra weight around the undulating course at Exeter. In a 14 runner handicap 2/1 is a very skinny price and so it was a no-brainer to lay the horse to lose. On this occasion I was proven wrong as the horse won by a short head. But the backers will have had some sweaty palms I am sure. Nonetheless, the win put a big 25 point dent in my account as I was matched at 5/2

Profit so far this month: 5 points
.

Sayonara Kerayasi

I can add another 13 points to the bottom line this evening, as two more successful lay bets brought home the bacon this afternoon. I had proposed three win bets this morning, but only one (Bynack Mhor at Plumpton) reached my suggested value price. He finished unplaced, so a loss of a point there.

But I managed to get two favourites beaten. First, Art Trend went down for a maximum 10 point bet. Then I advised bets against Kerayasi running at Plumpton. Before today, Kerayasi had just two wins to his name from twenty starts, both in low grade flat races. He had raced only twice over hurdles, both times at a lower grade than this afternoon. Today he was voted by the market the favourite to take a class 4 hurdle race - why? I laid bets against him for 4 points, and he finished in 6th position.

Profit so far this month: 21 points
.

The doors are open....

The Great BIG Horse Racing Give-Away is now LIVE!

http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/

Finally, after all the cloak and dagger stuff last week, I can tell you what is happening today.

Twenty-eight horse racing marketers are giving away over £1,200 worth of eBooks, software, downloads, reports, trials, and systems for FREE - with absolutely no catch!

No need to get your wallet out, as you will not have to pay for a single thing.

These gifts are simply my way of saying a big "Thank You" for being a loyal reader of my newsletter and a follower of my blog. As well as a reader, you may also be a customer of mine, and so it is my absolute pleasure to be able to give you something "extra" to thank you for your custom.

Please be warned, this fantastic offer will only be available for a limited period, so I suggest you get on over to the web site pronto and start filling your boots!

http://www.horseracing-giveaway.com/

Enjoy....