Carthys Cross, and so he should be!

Not the kind of day I would choose to bow out on at the end of the month, but apart from a lack of profitability, today did produce a quite remarkable race. In the first race at Towcester four horses lined up to contest the beginners chase. Three of the runners had a realistic chance of winning, whilst Chain started the 28/1 outsider making up the numbers.

The three main protagonists were well clear of Chain, when first one tipped up over a fence to leave leave two runners out in front. Then a second horse fell, leaving my selection Carthy's Cross with a 20 length lead over the no-hoper. It seemed all Carthy's Cross had to do was get over the last three fences to take the race. Well, he didn't fall, but instead two out he refused to jump at all! Chain came past to take the lead, and although Carthy's Cross gave a hint he might get back on top, we saw the most unlikely of winners. That race will definitely feature on Question Of Sport at some point.

Getting back to my results -- I had four bets, but with no success as three selections were runners-up and the other failed to place. I had three lay bets, and although two of these were successful, Dig Deep won his race at 4/1 and I ended up a point down.

At the end of an eventful day, my reward was a 5 point loss.

Weekly results

The end of another month is here, and I shall be posting another good set of results in my newsletter next week-end. But unfortunately this past week will not have played any positive part in those profitable figures. As I mentioned in last week's results post, I anticipate a few indifferent weeks whilst we make the transition from the Jumps season to the Flat. Still, it's not much fun if you are a new subscriber, or checking out my service.

Over the past seven days the Back-To-Win selections have just about managed to break even, whilst the three Lay bets I had, returned a net loss of a fraction over 4 points. So nothing at all special to boast about, and indeed a loss of 3 points overall. No excuses, but I shall be doing my best to re-coup these losses and get my head back in front again this week.

Profit for the week:- Win Bets 1pt, Lay Bets -4pts loss

Thursday racing summary

Worthwhile prices were not widely available today, and only two bets qualified as final selections. Krakatau came home in front in the last race of the evening at Southwell, available at 17/2 on WBX before being backed in to a starting price of 11/2

My lay bet was Madaarek who lined up for the class 5 handicap over 10 furlongs at Beverley this afternoon. With two outings under his belt last season, and a 'blow-out' already this year, he was still a maiden nonetheless, and on his handicap debut he was carrying top weight. Stepping up in trip as well, I thought the price of 8/11 was ridiculously short for a horse in a handicap race with no winning form, yet carrying the biggest penalty, and I layed him for 3 points. The market got its money back this time, but we layers did not have to give much back at those prices.

So I gave back some of my profits from Krakatau, but realised a net gain of more than 5 points on the day.

Wednesday racing summary

I was very disappointed to put up such a poor show today. Although my four selections were at healthy prices up to 9/1 only the shortest one at 9/4 even got in the frame.

My only winning horse was sadly also my only lay bet of the day. Malyana won her maiden last autumn, but had not been seen on a track since then. Making her handicap debut today at Epsom she was giving weight away to all but three of her rivals. I thought this would be a stiff task for her first run of the season. She had the run of the race, but looked like being overhauled in the last half-furlong. To her credit she dug deep and just prevailed, taking with her over 2 points of my profits.

So I drew a complete blank today, and gave back over 6 points profit. I shall be looking to tomorrow to iron out the blip in proceedings.

CashMaster software

I don’t know how you feel about so-called betting systems – some people swear by them, and yet some people swear AT them! Personally, I find a good system can be an excellent foundation to a betting strategy, if used as an initial filter to arrive at a number of potential selections. But I can count the number of systems I would use as a stand-alone method on the fingers of one hand.

If you are in a hurry you can click here to check out a remarkable software program called Cash-Master.

So it is very seldom you will ever hear me getting excited about horse racing software systems. The reason is this – because 99% of them will never make you any money!

That said, there is one software program that I am truly glad to have discovered – and that is Cash-Master. Many of you will have heard of Cash-Master as it is one of the best-selling programs available. Quite possibly you have a copy already. But if you haven’t, I promise you this unique software program is unlike anything you have seen or tried before. Just like the testimonials I was reading on their website, I too found myself making good profits within a few short days.

Almost every software program I have ever tested simply manipulates form data to produce a rating for each horse in a race. Different programs use different data, from different sources, and they use the data in different ways to produce different sets of rankings. You are then left to place your money on the horse with the highest rating.

Employ any one of these systems over a period of time, and chances are you will slowly but steadily lose money. If you are really lucky you will break even.

The reason for this is that 99% of systems ignore the crucial factor for long-term profits – consistently achieving a value price. If you fail to bet horses at prices too big compared to their actual chance of winning, then over time you will lose money. Period.

So you can appreciate that when I was asked to review Cash-Master on a trial I was just as sceptical as usual. As it turns out, for once I was wrong! When you see Cash-Master in action for yourself, you will immediately see how it is so much more than a just selection system. I call it my ‘profits-booster’.

With the Cash Master System not only do you get a powerful software program, but also a comprehensive operating manual with solid money-management advice and risk-reduction strategies. You get access to their proprietary Mega Buster selection system, plus many other free bonuses, and a 100% Money Back guarantee if you are not happy – a ‘No Lose’ situation.

So how exactly does it all work?

All you will be required to do is visit specific free internet sites for information and then enter those details into the program. Cash-Master will then tell you exactly what to do. The software runs in any Microsoft Windows operating system. There is NOT a lot of tedious data entry involved. Everything is clearly explained in the step-by-step instruction manual.

Suffice to say that I am more than happy to recommend Cash-Master. When used in conjunction with a solid selection system, this software will prove an invaluable tool to ensure you maximise your profits.

Make sure you get straight over to the Cash-Master website, order yourself a copy (there is a no-quibble money-back guarantee), and begin ‘paper trading’ with this software today.

Visit the Cash Master website.

Tuesday racing summary

Following on from yesterday, the account is 'treading water' at the moment. Too many losers negating the returns from too few winners. I had seven qualifying win bets today - a lot more than usual - but still ended up being a point behind at the end of the day. Just two winners returned at 5/4 and 11/4 on the exchanges were not enough to regain the losses on the other five selections.

I can take a little comfort, because the back-to-win account is over 30 points in front this month; and days like today, although frustrating, do little damage to our overall profit.

No lay bets today, so a loss of around 1 point overall.

Bid For Gold only secures bronze

A small loss on the account today as three losers wiped out my profit from one winner. These included Bid For Gold who could only manage third place. Classic Role came home in front, and could have been backed at 9/4 during the course of the morning on Betfair. But this still left me the best part of a point down on the day.

The price on my only lay bet never fell as low as the 13/8 I was looking for. Mystic Dancer was contesting his third maiden race, only this time he was taking on a trip some 3 furlongs further than he had raced before. I was hoping the trainer/jockey combination of Stoute and Dettori would have punters piling on and artificially depressing the price, but that didn't happen. I got the outcome right though, as the colt finished fourth more than 6 lengths down on the winner.

Weekend racing summary and weekly results

Apologies to those who have missed my posts for a couple of days. I've been away for a family week-end, and had the time to get my daily message out from my lap-top, but not a lot of spare time I'm afraid. Spent a fantastic day at Wrest Park in Bedfordshire yesterday. A stately home where they held a St Georges Day pageant in the grounds -- scores of knights-in-armour, a dragon, and St George of course! Kids had a whale of a time, and I would recommend it for next year.

Ahead of my post this evening I wanted to bring everything up-to-speed with an overview of the weekend and the week's results.

As normal, it's proving difficult to find many value opportunities at lengthy prices in this changeover period between the Jumps season and the Flat. With little form to go on it is a challenge to come up with solid bets in the flat races, and I have been scratching around for value in the jumps races. Consequently the selections have been poor, more often than not the favourites in their races, and showing only moderate returns when we find a winner.

On Friday evening I did pinpoint Union Jack Jackson who won at 11/2. Across Friday, Saturday and Sunday the Win Bets returned a profit of around 4 points overall.

I suggested 5 horses to oppose, and in contrast to the month's results so far, three of them went and won. These were only single-point bets and no higher than 13/8 so no real damage dome at all.

The Back-To-Win bets continue in good form, with a profit returned of over 15 points. I anticipate an up-and-down period for a week or three, as we get through to the Flat Season proper. On the other hand, I shall be looking for many opportunities to lay horses, with the form being uncertain in the early parts of the season. This past week the Lay account has turned in a solid 9 points.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 15.5pts, Lay Bets 9.5pts

Betting On Horse Racing : Sensible Money Management (part 4)

Author: Max Redd http://www.reddracing.co.uk

If you want to make ‘serious’ money from betting on horse racing, then you have to take the whole business of betting seriously. Treat betting as a mere ‘distraction’ and your entertainment will almost certainly come at a cost.

In Part One of this series of articles on sensible money management, I said that much of the reason people will lose money through betting is because of bad habits. How do you overcome bad habits? Discipline, of course!

If you were running your own business, you would treat it as a business and not a hobby. You would get to your desk on time each morning. As well as doing the things you enjoy about your business, you would attend to all the mundane tasks necessary for things to run smoothly. You would file your tax returns on time. You would have a business plan and you would set budgets for attainable growth. You would aim to make a profit by earning more in revenue than you spend in costs. You would not continue to sell a product at a loss. Etc., etc.

To run a business takes a lot of self-discipline, and so it is with making a long-term profit from betting. It is not as easy as some people would have you believe. If this were true, then tens of thousands more people would be placing bets from their laptop by a pool in Spain, and there would be no more bookmakers in your local High Street!

If you are prepared to discipline yourself, then you are far more likely to elevate yourself from the 98% of punters who continually lose money through gambling.

The very first task you should undertake is to set up a separate account for your betting funds. It is essential you keep your betting activities separate from your other financial affairs, otherwise you will find it very difficult to see if you are making a profit, and how much return you are getting on your investment.

No-one needs to be reminded that you should only bet with money you can afford to lose, but the more money you can set aside for betting purposes, the more likely you are to see any worthwhile gains. You should view your betting bank as working capital, and an investment you have made in your own business.

Do not be tempted to place a bet using your credit card, or the debit card on your current account.

Anyone following my betting advisory service will know that I am always preaching about getting value when you bet. My philosophy makes perfect sense to me, but then I’ve been trying to drum the principle into peoples’ heads for years! But going back to the analogy of running a business, you wouldn’t pay £10 for a product from a wholesaler if you couldn’t sell it for any more than an average of £5. You may make the occasional sale at £15 or even £20 but if the average return is only £5 then in the long run you will lose money.

The same principle applies when backing a horse – don’t accept a price of 5/1 when the real chance of the horse winning should be represented by a price of 10/1

If you fancy a horse to win, but you cannot get the price you want, then have the discipline to let the horse run without your money on its back. Horse racing has been around for more than a century -- there will be other opportunities. You should not be betting purely for the thrill of risking money, and only putting your investment at risk with the potential of a good return.

Take the time to review how your strategy is working (or not). How much profit are you making? Which systems or tipsters are making you the most? Without continual review, you will not be able to maximise your returns (nor indeed limit your losses).

Your betting bank should be large enough to absorb any losing runs you will encounter from time to time. This is akin to managing your cash-flow of your business. Having a “large bank” does not necessarily mean having a lot of money sunk into your betting account. Moreover, it means you should be staking only a small proportion of your bank on each bet.

The same £1,000 bank fund could be divided into a large bank of 1,000 points, ie £1 per bet. Or it could be divided into a relatively small bank of just 10 points, ie £100 per bet.

As your bank grows, then the same small percentage of your total funds will represent a higher monetary value.

Do not be tempted to increase your stake on any particular bet. Set your proportional stakes plan and stick to it. Yes, review your stakes from time to time, but never alter your stakes on a whim, on hearsay of a strong bet, or for any other irrational reason. Be wary of getting greedy.

This is a good time to warn you of the perils of betting whilst under the influence. Never bet after having a drink. The reasons should not need further explanation.

If your method of selection is losing you money, then stop betting.

Allow me to expand upon the last statement. If you have a losing day, do not be quick to toss your system in the bin or cancel your subscription to your favourite tipster! Everybody has losing days, indeed everyone has losing weeks and bad months. However, after a reasonable period of time you will be fairly certain whether or not a particular source of bets is returning worthwhile profits.

Discipline will play a big part in managing your portfolio of systems. On the one hand you should not be too hasty to give up on a profitable system, if it suffers a downturn in performance. At the same time, you should be prepared to relegate a system from your portfolio if it is consistently losing money.

Always ‘paper-trade’ a system or tipster over a significant period of time (I would suggest at least two months) before actually committing any of your betting funds. If you are then confident enough to risk your own money on a system, then equally you should be prepared to endure two losing months before dropping it.

If you do find yourself starting to lose money at any point, never be tempted to chase your losses. Do not increase your stakes in an effort to re-coup what you have lost, as you may well find yourself with even greater, unnecessary losses.

To summarise, treat your betting activities in a business-like fashion. Develop a plan and have the discipline to stick to it. Below is a list of Do’s and Don’t’s. For those who need help to adopt a disciplined approach, stick by these rules and you will not go too far wrong!

DO’s and DON’T’s

DO have a separate account for your betting funds
DO try to get value in the price of your bets
DO keep records
DO take the time to analyse your betting
DO be wary risking a high percentage of your bank
DO operate with a bank of suitable size
DO change or drop a losing system

Do NOT bet when you are drunk
Do NOT get too greedy
Do NOT bet without paying consideration to the price
Do NOT bet if you cannot get the price YOU want
Do NOT try and get rich quick
Do NOT chase your losses

About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

Thursday racing summary

A gratifying day, and four successful bets from four. I had three win bets, each of which did exactly what is says on the tin -- namely "win". Lead On, Hattan, and Abragante, at 10/11 and 2/1 and 6/1 respectively with better prices advised and available on the exchanges

I proposed two bets to lay, with Valery Borzov losing, and Adagio not meeting my price requirements. As Adagio won his race, it underlines (in my opinion) the importance of sticking to my guideline prices. Every punter owes it to themselves to get value when they bet, and at today's prices this horse was too much of a risk to warrant a lay bet. The horse was making his seasonal re-appearance after a good performance in the Dewhurst Stakes last autumn. However, in that race the market only rated him a 25/1 chance. Today's race was also to be over a slightly longer distance. For these reasons I would not be backing the horse, and at a price around the even money mark I was prepared to lay bets. In the event the horse produced a good performance to win, and I was proven right to be offering backers only a short price about him.

Good to see the win bets producing such handsome returns, and all told I pocketed more than 12 points profit.

Silencio makes little noise

Again today the Lay Bets were propping-up the Win Bets, but that underlines the importance of having more than one string to your bow. I suffered two losing win bets, but enjoyed 4 points profit and two successful bets from two on the laying account.

First I showed I was right to oppose the morning race favourite Urban Spirit at Newmarket, before turning my attention to the handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. Silencio was racing off his highest handicap mark, and stepping up in class since his last run. To win today would have required a career best performance, and Cheltenham is never the easiest place to achieve such a feat. All-in-all I thought the odds were stacked against him, and at 9/4 or lower I was prepared to lay bets. This morning on Betfair you could have gotten matched at 7/4

The account has moved forward again to the tune of 2 points by the end of the day.

Betting Against Horses For Profit

Let me explain to you why a book I have read recently will help you take advantage of the betting exchanges.

Sporting Exchange Ltd was formed in 1999 to commercialise the betting technology developed by Andrew Black and Edward Wray. They created a web site where punters could be 'matched' with other punters who had opposing opinions, effectively betting against each other, and Betfair was born. It also heralded the opportunity for the average punter in the street to bet on horses to lose their race.

I remember thinking this was an unbelievable chance to make some serious money. Pick a horse to lose a race and you win your bet. "These guys must be crazy" I thought. "Anyone can pick a loser, its going to be easy to make money! Surely this site will go bust within weeks?"

At first, I started out by going through the Racing Post and selecting a horse that by the form-book had "absolutely no chance" of winning, and laying it to lose on Betfair. This 'system' worked fine for a while, until BANG!! a 25/1 chance popped up and won. Trouble was, the 25/1 horse was something like 40/1 on Betfair and I lost all my profit, plus more, all in one go. I guess it proved the old saying that "horses can't read form books".

Betfair had arrived, and it was a betting revolution that was here to stay.

I'm sure many of you will have had this experience yourselves. Turning a profit by laying horses to lose is not as easy as it first sounds. But, like all areas of betting the secret to success comes in getting some 'value' into your bet -- and the value in laying comes far more often than not, when you oppose the favourite.

I picked up a copy of Betting Against Horses For Profit by Henry McAnenly when it was voted the best betting guide in my last Readers' Poll. As the title suggests, it focuses on laying horses to lose. Henry is a renowned professional gambler, and an expert author of several best-selling books on betting and horse racing. Since his latest offering was voted #1 Book I decided I should get myself a copy.

I have read his book, and it details a very sound system for identifying weak and vulnerable race favourites -- often referred to as 'false' favourites. Horses at short-prices that are not as sure to win as their price might suggest. Remember what I am always saying about making your betting pay by betting for value? Consistently lay horses at prices too short compared to their actual chance of winning, and you will make a profit just like the bookmakers have been doing for generations. Well having read Henry’s book, that is exactly what you will learn.

If you are interested in laying horses to lose as a betting strategy then find out more by visting Henry's web site:

www.Laying-Horses-For-Profit.com

One Ace but four jokers

A loss of a point-and-a-half this afternoon on the Win bets account. I had five bets and suffered four losers. Fortunately Spanish Ace got me some of my money back, so no real damage done to the account.

A better day with my lay bets, and they more than compensated for the loss from my win bets. First, I was successful for 2 points in opposing Transcend at Nottingham, the morning favourite for the maiden stakes over a mile. Then I was taking on Hannicean in another maiden race, this time over 10 furlongs. The colt was having only his second race after finishing behind four horses on his debut, and his first race this season. He was also stepping up in trip. Although entitled to be older and wiser since his first run, I felt there were enough reasons to doubt him at a price of 6/5 on Betfair to justify a lay bet. I was wrong this time and the horse had improved and ran a fine race to win. My final lay bet, also for 2 points, was Pipers Song.

And so a profit of over 2.5 points from laying, and a fraction over a point profit overall.

Monday racing summary

More than 4 points profit to show for my efforts today, as both accounts inched forward again. I had four win bets, with Penang Cinta and Imps Way returning home in front.

I proposed two lay bets, was successful with one, and the other horse was withdrawn before coming under orders. Frankie Figg had not come anywhere near winning his three attempts over hurdles, at distances ranging between 2 and 3 miles. Goodness only knows why he was the 6/4 race favourite. Perhaps the market felt he was the best of a bad bunch, but at that price this was a bet that had to be layed. To be fair, with 2 flights of hurdles left to jump, the horse was still swinging on the bridle, and it seemed that all Paddy Brennan had to do to win was push the button, so to speak. Personally, I felt the jockey was too confident and didn't tell the horse to go about his business early enough, and was as much to blame for him losing. Not my concern however, and I would lay the horse a hundred times over at that price. Two more points profit.

Week-end racing summary and weekly results

For a fleeting moment yesterday I thought I had been blessed with the Golden Goose of horse racing....

As usual the Redd family sat down to watch the National, just like millions around the country. Similar to hundreds of thousands of punters and once-a-year bettors we each had our bets on a horse thundering round the Aintree course (in fact we each had a pound on two horses, placed at Coral's in Tring that morning). After going through the form and evaluating the weights and prices, I decided my choices would be Simon and Royal Auclair (BOTH fell at Valentines!). My wife decided to lend her support to Tony McCoy in the hope he would at last steer home a Grand National winner, but again this year it was not to be. Her second choice was Hedgehunter, because she loves it when the crowd sings of the jockey Mr Walsh "Ruby, Ruby, Ruby, Ruby!" a la Kaiser Chiefs when he wins(?)

Now I kid you not, and I would like to know anyone's opinion of the likely odds, these were the choices of my boys: Wes (age 6) Idle Talk and McKelvey, Daniel (age 4) Numbersixvalverde and Silver Birch, and Scott (age 22 months) Slim Pickings and Longshanks.

The eagle-eyed amongst you will see that as a family we had the first three (should have gone each way, I know!) More remarkable was that Daniel also picked Numbersixvalverde last year for two National winners in-a-row!

So look out for the Redd Boys' tips next year.

As for me, I had four win bets, but produced a tantalising three runners-up and a third. Good, but not good enough, and the records will still show 4 losing bets.

My only lay bet of the day was successful as I saw Detroit City overturned. So, in all a loss of 3 points on Saturday.

Today I advanced the Win Bet account forwards once again with two bets, and a well-priced winner in Presenting Alf which was available at winning odds of 17/2 on Betfair.

My suggested horse to oppose was Palomar, the morning favourite for the novice hurdle at Kelso. He had run only once over hurdles, with a disappointing run in a class 5 maiden. Today he was stepping up in class. His short price was based upon his form in class 1 and 2 handicaps on the flat, but I felt he was not going to translate this form to jumping obstacles. He finished over 20 lengths behind the winner and gained me a point profit.

On the Back-To-Win account this week I think I have managed to turn the corner and move out of a period of disappointing results. I have added over 20 points profit, and I shall be looking to consolidate these gains again this coming week. The Lay Bets have performed equally as well, with 8 successful bets from 8 and more than 19 points to add to last week's gains of 20 points profit.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 20pts, Lay Bets 19.5pts

Aintree Meeting ~ day 2

Another solid performance with profit coming from both the back-to-win account and the laying account. I had four win bets, with both Faasel and Lankawi finishing in runners-up position in their races, at 6/1 and 10/1 respectively, and Monet's Garden winning the day's feature race.

Monet's Garden gave me my second double-whammy in three days, as I was also laying the hot favourite in the race Well Chief. Although he had all the form at this level of competition, the fact remained that today's race was over 3f further than he had ever raced before. To try a new distance at class 1 grade 1 level surely must represent a degree of uncertainty in anybody's book, yet he was sent off the 4/5 odds-on favourite? At that price I went against him to lose for 2 points profit, and indeed it would seem he did not see out the trip.

5 points profit overall to add to the account. I wonder if we will have a bet in the Big One tomorrow? Good luck to everyone having a flutter in the Grand National, and I wish for all runners and riders to come home safely.

Aintree Meeeting ~ day 1

Nothing much to write home about when it comes to results after the first day of the Aintree festival of racing. As can be typical of a festival meeting, the racing was always going to be very open and extremely competitive. This makes it difficult to pin-point winners, and although you can often find a few horses to lay, the prices in close markets are often prohibitive to laying as the risk outweighs the potential rewards. I don't really want to be opposing race favourites at 5's and 6's against the field.

So I only had the one win bet on Liberate in the novices hurdle. I managed to get better than 2/1 on Betfair, but the horse finished a disappointing fifth. One point lost on the day, so no damage done. It was better to reduce our exposure and instead enjoy the spectacle of the racing. I must also say, and call me a Titchmarsh if you will, but I thought the course looked magnificent today at Aintree.

Looking forward to day 2 and maybe a few more opportunities to make a profit.

Shake On It for the real deal

More consistent profit from my win bets today, and another cracking day bringing down the favourites. I had two win bets, the first being Adlestrop which failed to deliver at Hereford. Shake On It however, figured in a double-whammy in the Maiden stakes at Bath. I picked Shake On It as the value bet against the well-touted favourite Binocular, and when the former came home in front at 7/4 I scored from both bets.

Binocular was having only his second outing in public, a full six months after his debut. Last September he finished fourth in a race of a similar standard, but this time he was stepping up in trip. A horse with no winning form, having his first race of the season, at an untried trip, yet available to lay on Betfair this morning at a shade over 6/4 -- I got stuck in with a big bet of 7 points, and also picked the eventual winner as a bonus! My other lay bet Haunted House was also successful, and by stark contrast to last month these bets are smoking hot at the moment -- more than 37 points in front since the beginning of April.

At the end of the afternoon I had pocketed more than 10 points profit, and a confidence boost moving into the Aintree festival.

Two Little Boys

A small loss to the account today, as I only scored one back-to-win winner from 5 bets. I clawed most of the deficit back with my winner, and also with a successful lay bet, but still ended up a little down on the day overall. My win bet came from Blackthorn Boy who managed to translate his all-weather form to the turf and won by 7 lengths at Fontwell.

Intavac Boy is the only lay bet I am putting on the account today. Wind Star was available to lay at 4/1 on WBX shortly before the start, but I only had £18 matched personally, and I don't think even £500 was traded altogether at that price. With only such a small amount being traded, and so few people being able to take advantage, I don't think it is fair to say it was generally available and post it as a successful bet at that price. So it goes down as a 'no bet'.

Intavac Boy however, was successfully opposed at 6/4 on Betfair. He had never carried this weight to victory before, and was stepping up in class after an unsuccessful first run of the season. To date he has produced only 2 wins from 28 races. So to win today, and he obviously does not make a habit of winning, he would have to improve to produce a career-best performance -- yet mug punters were still happy to take odds as short as 11/8

Return of the Happy Mondays

One of my horses to follow this morning was Sound Of Cheers, and although the horse was not a final selection, the name was quite apt to sum up the day's racing. As expected, the feast of Bank Holiday racing turned up a good number of betting opportunities. I had ten back-to-win bets, which returned 5 winners at prices from 2/1 up to 8/1 and a somewhat overdue profit of nearly 16 points.

My lay bets returned a further 4 points with two from two bets. Mandurah lined up for the 5f handicap at Musselburgh 6lb above his best winning mark, and giving weight to all but one of his rivals. 2/1 is a short price in any sprint handicap, and I didn't think his form justified such favouritism, so I went against him for 2 points. I was similarly successful in opposing Quai Du Roi also at the Scottish track.

A very pleasing day's work, with just under 20 points profit to show for my efforts.

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

Three horses, and a few prices being not quite what we were looking for, made a huge difference today. "If it wasn't for ifs and buts and maybes" -- isn't that how the saying goes? As it happens I can still post a 2 point profit today, and if I made 2 points for everyone every day I'm sure I would have a very happy bunch of subscribers. So perhaps I should be grateful.

But three runners-up, all at healthy prices? A-a-a-r-r-r-g-h!! Why couldn't just one of them come in first?

All five of my proposed lay selections lost, but only two were at the desired prices. Such a shame the markets didn't go the way I expected, as we were going to get stuck into Shot Gun and Global Strategy for 7 points each at Musselburgh. Back In Business was contesting the novice handicap chase at Plumpton. I felt there were four horses with similar form and chances in this race, and they should each of been around the 3/1 mark. But you could lay Back In Business at 11/10 this morning on Betfair, which was far too short compared to his actual chance of winning, and I went against him for 3 points. Dualagi was also a successful 2 point lay at Musselburgh, so 5 points profit in all.

On the Back-To-Win account this week we have certainly had our fair share of 'close but no cigar' with 7 horses finishing in the runner-up spot from 12 bets (one of these a 14/1 shot), and a loss of just over 2 points for the week. Much better news on the Lay account, with a total of 20 points profit, and 9 from 10 race favourites successfully overturned.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets -2pts loss, Lay Bets 20pts

Sharp Reply goes close

I had the cigar ready to smoke, and the diva with a few pounds to lose was just about to sing, when Sharp Reply failed by a length to land the odds at 16/1 -- close, but not close enough. Two win bets went down today, but I had another good day opposing vulnerable favourites.

Tybalt was contesting a class 3 handicap at Kempton, and this represented a step up in class. This was the colt's handicap debut, yet he was giving weight to all but two of his rivals. His winning form was his maiden race, so he has only ever beaten horses who have never won themselves. Yet this morning on Betfair there were punters who would gladly take ridiculously short odds of 6/4 for this young horse, simply because he has Classic entries. If ever there was an unproven horse. I got stuck in for 5 points and he finished second.

3 points profit for the day.

Betting Exchange Academy

If you have ever harboured the thought of making a regular income from betting, then I've got some exciting news. In my recent article on profitable 'dutching' of horse races, I mentioned the Bet Angel software for use on Betfair. Well, I have heard today that Peter Webb (the founder of Optic Limited who publish Bet Angel) has announced a series of Betting Exchange Academy training courses.

Learn from professionals how to achieve spectacular results on Betting Exchanges!

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Thursday racing summary

A solid set of results today, with both accounts showing a profit. I'm a little disappointed to have missed two winners in Commemoration Day and Homes By Woodford. I put both these horses up as potential selections this morning, but neither reached the value price I was looking for. But, it is important to put these apparently missed opportunities into perspective. The many short-priced losers we have avoided by sticking to my policy of betting to value prices, and the potentially lost profits saved, easily pays for the winners we pass up. Nonetheless, I had two bets today, and of these My Immortal was successful at Ludlow. 9/4 was available on Betfair this morning.

All four of the morning favourites I suggested to oppose came a cropper -- unfortunately only one of these was available at a low enough price to justify the risk of laying her, and that was Dolce Dovo. This filly contested her first season without breaking her maiden, and after more than 5 months off the track I didn't think she would improve first time out. Also her last outing over this trip saw her finish 17 lengths down on the winner. The booking of Jamie Spencer was bound to give the punters a reason to pile in, and sure enough the price sank to 11/10 at the off. I went against her for 2 points and she finished second yet again.

A modest profit of just over 3 points overall.

Don't forget to look out for my latest newsletter in your Inbox over the week-end.

Squeezing every Last Drop of profit

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. As I seem to be so good at picking losers recently, I thought I would play to my strengths and focus a little more attention on my lay bets. My only win bet was unplaced, but I did manage to highlight three losing favourites and add 7 points profit to the laying account...

...sorry, I was miles away for a moment.. couldn't remember the last time I posted 'add' and 'profit' in the same sentence!

My big lay bet of the day was The Last Drop in the Listed race over 1m6f at Nottingham. His second place in last year's St Leger was eye-catching form in the book, but I knew punters would over-react, and over-bet the horse. The fact remains his only winning form is his class 5 maiden race, and he had been away from the track for 5 months. The horse had the form to win the race, and he very nearly did, but you will never get rich backing a horse first-time out at 5/4 so this was a no-brainer bet to lay. I went against him for 5 points.

6 points profit in all to put back in the satchel.

How To Make A Profit By Dutching

You may well have heard the term dutching in the context of betting on horse racing. But do you know what it means? In this article I will attempt to explain the principles of dutching a horse race. I will also introduce you to an incredible piece of software that can help you make regular profits by dutching horse races.

We are all familiar with the idea of backing a horse to win a race, in order to secure a profit. Dutching is concerned with betting on more than one horse in a single race, and with the same aim, to make a profit.

More often than not, a typical punter will single out a particular horse in a race, as his choice to win. Let’s take an example of a 10-runner race. In a Win-Only market, there are only ten possible outcomes to this event: that one from each of the 10 runners will win the race.

No matter what anyone tells you, every horse that lines up at the beginning of a race has a chance of winning. The chance may only be a fraction of one per cent, but it is still a chance and a possibility. Don’t believe that to be true? Watch the prices on Betfair for every race for a whole year, and I promise you, you will not see a horse matched at 1000-1 before the race starts. Why not? Because to get matched at 1000-1 someone must be thinking the horse doesn’t even have one chance in a thousand of winning, and is prepared to lay your bet. There is always the possibility, no matter how remote, of any horse winning, provided each horse is allowed to run a true race.

If a horse was ever matched at 1000-1 before the start, you can be sure of an investigation into possible foul-play.

Going back to our horse in the 10-runner race – let’s say he is priced the 2-1 favourite. If we back this horse, we can expect only two results for our stake: either our horse will win, and we will collect our stake and a 2-point profit, or the horse will not win, and we will lose our stake.
So, on only one occasion from 10 possible results, will we make a profit – only when our horse wins.

What if we could improve our chances of winning?

What if we bet on two horses instead of just the one? Then there would be two occasions which would see us collecting, rather than just the one. This is the principle behind dutching a horse race.

A punter can select a number of horses to back in a race, and split his stake according to the price of each horse, such that which ever of his selections wins he will make the same profit.

You will find many calculators on the market, or even for free, which will tell you how to split your stake according to the price of each of your selections. Just type dutching calculator into a Google search.

Notice I didn’t say guaranteed profit. The risk with dutching is that one of the horses you have not backed, ends up winning the race. Your stake is spread across a number of runners, but if none of these horses wins, you will lose all of your stake. If you take dutching to the extreme and back every horse in a race, in a 100% book such as you will generally find on the betting exchanges, you will end up with no profit. The returns on your winning stake will cover the amounts placed on all the other selections, but with nothing over as a profit. When betting with a bookmaker, he will construct his book such that if you bet on all the horses you will actually lose money, and he will profit. This is his business after all!

To make a profit from dutching you must back the horses you feel could possibly win, and eliminate those that in your opinion have next to no chance of winning. Hopefully you will have again spotted the risk here: that is you eliminate a horse from your equations and WHAM! It pops up and wins in spite of your strenuous calculations!

Essentially, dutching a race is similar to laying horses to lose. If you back every horse in a race bar one, you are effectively opposing that horse and laying it to lose. Backing all but two, and you are laying those two runners, and so on….

Having said earlier that if you back every horse on a betting exchange you will break even at best, this is not 100% true. The betting exchanges, by their very nature, regularly offer up the opportunity to make a profit by backing every horse in a race. The key lies in backing every horse at the right price, by taking advantage of the fluctuating markets on the exchanges.

Let’s look at a very simple example – if we could back both horses in a 2-runner race at 11/10 then no matter which horse wins, we will pick up a profit. However, the catch here is that at any given point in time, these two horses will not BOTH be on offer at 11/10

But imagine this – at 12pm Horse A is priced at 11/10 and Horse B is at 10/11 to make a balanced book. We back Horse A.

An hour later the prices have changed due to consistent betting on Horse A. In fact the prices are now reversed and Horse A is the favourite at 10/11 and Horse B has drifted out to 11/10 Not too difficult to imagine is it? In fact similar situations occur every day. We now back Horse B at 11/10 and we have backed both runners at 11/10 Guaranteed profit – Hallelujah!

I have only touched on the subject of dutching in this article, but there are regular profits to be made on the betting exchanges, but only if you have a mind like a computer and a mouse-finger quicker than Clint Eastwood’s trigger-finger! Accurate calculations, quick decisions, and split-second reflexes are all necessary for success. Fortunately there are betting ‘bots’ (specially developed software) that can make these decisions and execute them for you instantly and automatically. The best of these is undoubtedly Bet Angel

If you pay a visit to their web site you can watch their training videos and learn far more about dutching with real life examples, than I can ever put into words in this article.

Summary – Dutching a horse race concerns backing more than one horse in a race, with the aim of making an equal profit whichever of your selections should win. The skill lies in successfully discounting horses as having little chance of winning, and leaving them un-backed. Dutching the betting markets for profit is made simple with the aid of a purpose-developed software tool such as Bet Angel

Tuesday racing summary

A couple more points lost on the account overall. I had three back-to-win selections and although two came in second, these can only be recorded as losers.

The positive story comes from my lay bets. Three of the race favourites I suggested to oppose were final selections, and two of these duly lost. Count Cougar won at a price of 5/2 on Betfair, but the other two lost and because they were both 2 point bets I more than re-couped my initial loss for a 1.5 point profit.

One of my selections was Efforetta in the class 6 handicap at Southwell over 1m 6f. Although she undoubtedly has the potential to win at this level, having won a class 5 event last year, she was still having only her second race back since the summer. She is 8lbs higher in the weights now, and I felt she was still in need of the run. I was happy to oppose her at 10/3 or below and 3/1 was easily matched on Betfair. She was not given the best of rides by Chris Catlin and although finishing well, she was still 10 lengths down on the winner at the finish.

It's been a while....

I thought it would be an idea to have a quick 'catch up' post seeing as I've been unable to post for a few days. Now things are (fingers crossed) back-to-normal I will resume with my daily blog update with a summary of today's racing a little later on.

Unfortunately I am currently sailing through the betting doldrums. The account is showing a loss of around 10 points in the last week alone, and I think if I went to the local Winners'R'Us shop I would find it difficult even to buy a winner at the moment.

This should not be bothering anyone who has been a member for anything more than a few weeks. I shall be posting results in the region of 40+ points profit for March, so we are most definitely playing with other peoples' money for the time being. The thing is, like most of you, I like to be consistently winning, and watching a steady stream of profits coming in -- no matter how small, just consistent. What nobody enjoys is a prolonged losing period.

It's easy for me to say this is typical of the 'crossover' period between the Jumps season and the Flat, but that is no consolation to those of you newer members, or those currently enjoying a free trial of my service. Still, that is a challenge for me to overcome, and me alone.

Before I forget, one update to the web site which I am hoping new members will find useful, is a 'Getting Started' guide. I have added this with the intention of helping those who have only just stumbled across my web site to make the most from the information I release every day. Having said that, it would not do any harm for the established members to take a 'refresher'. Any constructive comments or suggestions would be greatly appreciated - just drop me an email to max@reddracing.co.uk

Just go to www.reddracing.co.uk/getting-started

I'm pleased to have my 'voice' back again, and until I catch up with everybody with today's update, you all have my very warmest best wishes.

Back on air!

The blog is back! Apologies for the break in normal service. On Friday I found my login details at Blogger.com were not getting me in to update the blog. To cut a long story short, it has taken Blogger.com until now to get it sorted. Can anyone explain to me how changing my credit card details at Google Adwords affects my free blog account? That's the excuse I got from Google!

Anyway, sorry to those of you who I know follow my diary every day.

I'm going to post later today to quickly bring things up to speed, but for now just to let you know normal service has (hopefully) been resumed.