Friday, March 30, 2007

Thursday racing summary

Two more losing bets today, and its no fun at the moment is it? Grinding out a profit from betting is hard work at the best of times, and let's make no mistake about that. But the hard work is usually rewarded with at least the occasional win to keep us motivated. It's just not happening at the moment, so I'm not surprised if there are many of you losing interest. Well, that's to be entirely expected.

For those of you who will be hanging around for the time-being - keep focused, maintain your discipline, bet only with sensible stakes, and.... smile!

Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Wednesday racing summary

Two more losing bets today, and I'm having to weather a period without collecting. The merits of my 'value' system came to the fore though, as it meant I avoided laying an 11/2 winner.

Treasury Counsel was contesting a class 3 handicap hurdle at Kempton. To date he had only won a maiden hurdle in a lower class, and finished well behind on his last outing. I was conscious he was only giving weight to two horses on his handicap debut, and was potentially well-treated, but nonetheless I would have been happy to lay substantial bets against him at a price of 5/2 or lower. I was anticipating the trainer/jockey combination of Mssrs. Henderson and Fitzgerald would help artificially shorten the price, but it never dipped below 11/4 on Betfair. In fact the price drifted like the proverbial barge, and you could have backed the victorious Treasury Counsel at an amazing 6/1 in places, so it goes down as a 'no bet.' Effectively 12 points profit saved.

Tuesday, March 27, 2007

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Tuesday racing summary

Ouch! Today the account took a knock for more than 10 points, as I drew a complete blank. OK, let's get this said (draws a deep breath) - All five of my back-to-win bets were unsuccessful, and my lay bet won! There, said it, and nobody died.

Apologies if I sound a little flippant, but days like today happen. They have happened plenty of times to me in the past, and worse besides, and I will experience many more days like today before I hang up my betting boots.

What do we need to learn from today? The most important thing, I feel, is that today underlines the importance of operating with a big enough bank-roll. Personally, I maintain a 200 point betting bank. So although a loss of 10 points is still painful, it doesn't worry me. I will still sleep soundly tonight. This afternoon's results will not have me panicking and thinking I might need to re-think my methods. I will maintain my discipline. I am confident my methods return a profit over a prolonged period of time, so if it isn't broke I will not be looking to fix it.

Now if I had just blown half my bank-roll in a single day, then I may have reason to panic. Having a big enough bank allows you to think clearly, and remain disciplined.

Ironically, a new member asked me today if he could use £100 stakes with a £1,000 bank. I think today shows that would always be unwise.

It is purely academic, but I shall give the reasoning behind my selection to oppose today. Since winning off a mark of 55 and subsequently rising to a mark of 60, Scamperdale had failed to win. To win at Wolverhampton today he would have to return a career-best performance. His last two runs were not those of a rapidly improving horse, so I was prepared to lay him. He did return a career-best performance - just getting up in the shadow of the post - and cost me 5.5 points.

Tomorrow is indeed another day, and we shall re-group to fight on.

Betting On Horse Racing : Sensible Money Management (part 3)

This is the third instalment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.

Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.

I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.

Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F

But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!

What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.

Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!

You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!

Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.

If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!

Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”

But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. As you might expect, we will be betting on the red.

We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1

I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.

One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.

I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.

There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.

If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.

Monday, March 26, 2007

... and Gerrard scores!

A good start to the week, with one well-priced winner from two bets today. Gerrard came home in powerful fashion at Stratford this afternoon. Returned the 9/2 race favourite, members were able to get much better value and 11/2 was available about Gerrard to those betting on the Betfair exchange.

No lay bets to report on, so I pocketed a satisfying 4.5 points profit this afternoon.

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

A most gratifying Sunday to top off a very profitable weekend (7.5 points profit yesterday). Three win bets today: two lost but the third pick Fine By Me was a comfortable winner, available at odds better than 16/1 to value-seekers on Betfair this morning.

Yes My Lord was my only qualifying lay bet today. He has been contesting several class 3 handicap chases of late, but although he has been unsuccessful his handicap mark has continued to rise. Dropping back to class 4 today, I would normally have looked elsewhere for a potential lay bet. But it was the fact he was now a stone higher without a win that convinced me he would be hard-pushed to win today. He finished in third place, and earned me a point profit.

Up until this week, March has so far been quite hard work grinding out a consistent profit. Not that I'm against consistent profit, nor indeed grinding it out. But this week has been a bit of a shot-in-the-arm, returning an extra 36 points to our bottom line. The lay bets have been painfully slow, and I have only three points profit to show for a sparse 14 bets, one of those points coming from this week.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 36pts, Lay Bets 1pt

Saturday, March 24, 2007

Didn't we have a lovely time at Bangor?

100% success again today, and three profitable bets. I had two Win Bets, Special Envoy at Newbury, and Nice Try at Bangor. Early prices around 5/2 were available about Special Envoy on Betfair, and Nice try was returned a juicy 5/1

I proposed three horses to oppose this morning. Nawaadi was well beaten at Newbury but his price never fell low enough to risk placing a bet. Big Timer was a successful bet at Lingfield. You could have gotten matched on Betfair at 100/30 before his price drifted out to a SP of 6/1 - who says you cannot lay below SP on the exchanges?

I wanted to lay Blue Bajan in the Winter Derby. He has come mightily close to winning at this level on two occasions, but without getting his nose in front. But his two previous starts at Lingfield have been run at a strong pace, which suits him. I was sure today's race would be falsely run, as there were no natural front-runners. Coupled with the fact that very few horses win from the front at Lingfield, no-one was likely to want this role. I was right, and they started at little more than a dawdle. I knew before they even entered the finishing straight that Blue Bajan would not be winning. He struggled in the sprint to the line and finished uplaced. His SP was 4/1 which was my limit for laying him, but personally I didn't quite get matched, and it will not appear on my results as a bet.

Overall a good day, with more than 8 points profit to show for my efforts.

Friday, March 23, 2007

WBX the new alternative to Betfair

WBX has emerged as another viable alternative to Betfair as an exchange betting channel. Although Betfair is still the benchmark market leader, with the highest liquidity (more money and punters in their markets), it is still very useful to have comparative prices available.

So we have Betfair, Betdaq, and now WBX to choose from. But why bet with WBX?

Who are WBX? Launched in 2006, WBX is the trading name of the World Bet Exchange Limited, which is part of the WBX Group of Companies. WBX is a global bet exchange, operating from the UK, one of the most progressive gaming jurisdictions in the world.

Two Fantastic Offers throughout March & April: £150 in free bets – the more you bet, the more free bets you will accumulate throughout March and April – up to a grand total of £150. T & C’s apply.

WBX is a true global exchange, where Members receive better odds, special offers and a wide choice of international betting opportunities in one of the safest and most secure betting environments available anywhere in the world. With a combination of unique proprietary technology and a user-friendly interface, Members can browse the WBX website, offering and accepting odds, all from the comfort of their own home. Members are also provided with access to a multi-lingual help desk that provides support via phone and email.

To provide maximum security, Member funds are ring-fenced in a separate bank account within a separate company. WBX has appointed PKF (http://www.pkf.co.uk/), one of the UK’s leading independent accounting and advisory firms, to regularly audit these funds. PKF will provide assurance statements on WBX’s website to ensure that any future liabilities are always met in full. For a whole new world of betting try WBX – World Bet Exchange

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Run, Rabbit, Run...

Yesterday I said I rarely play the 'unlucky' card, and today I can show you just why not. Because luck was on my side today, and it just goes to show that luck features highly in horse racing. Sometimes luck seems to be against you, and sometimes she is smiling on you. The lesson to learn is don't get frustrated when luck goes against you, because before very long you will be rewarded with a little luck of your own.

As long as you are confident in your abilities and your methods, then in the long run luck will not affect your results.

L abouring
U nder
C orrect
K nowledge

Rabbit Fighter was in the vanguard right from the start at Wolverhampton, and hit the front with a decisive move. However, it looked as though he would be reeled in by the race favourite. Emerald Wilderness edged right approaching the line, and as the jockey fumbled with his whip to correct his course, the horse hesitated and gave up the race to our horse. We were lucky. You could have backed Rabbit Fighter at 7/2 on Betfair. 20 minutes later Scots Grey won at Newbury and 3/1 was freely available on the exchanges.

I had no lay bets today, so an overall profit of 6.5 points.

Thursday, March 22, 2007

Thursday racing summary

Two bets today and both unsuccessful. I rarely play the 'unlucky' card, but this afternoon I think we could justifiably say we were unlucky. Marvellous Dream was pulled up lame in the novices' hurdle at Ludlow, and my lay bet won at Ayr.

Amstecos was in the novice hurdle over 2m 4f. Granted on his latest outing recently he had won a similar race, but winning a maiden race he only beat other horses who had yet to win. Today he was stepping up in trip, and as his best form has been on testing ground he was unproven on faster going. So although he had no real negatives to blot his copy-book I felt he was largely unproven, and at the ridiculous price of 1/2 odds-on I was happy to lay him for 3 points. The history books will show that Amstecos won, and cost me my three points. But those watching the race will know that the horse barely held on in a driving finish - 50yds further and Ossmoses would have secured us a 6 point profit.

A four point loss on the day.

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Magnificent Mighty Moose

I have backed a few donkeys in my time. I often make an ass of myself when it comes to advising winners. Heck, many is the time I've had a pony on the wrong horse. But today I actually scored with a Moose!

Three back-to-win selections today at Chepstow, returning two winners and providing a net profit of over 8 points. Firstly, Travello came home at 7/2 in the selling hurdle. Then Mighty Moose won the novice handicap chase. If you were betting on Betfair you could have gotten great value at a price of 11/2

I also put up two morning race favourites to oppose. Lindop was contesting the maiden hurdle at Lingfield. These types of races often throw up an unexpected winner as most of the horses are relatively unexposed and improving at various rates. I was happy to risk a point at odds of 100/30 or below and he was eventually sent off at 5/2F This time I got it wrong, and he improved to put up his best performance over hurdles to date and won very well. However, I re-couped the best part of my losses here, by successfully laying Scarlet Mix for 2 points in the handicap hurdle at Chepstow.

Overall I managed to move the account forward by a shade over 7.5 points.

Betting on football with Socabet

I know that many of the seasoned punters amongst you will treat your betting activities much like those of an investor. You see the money you stake on a day-to-day basis as money ‘invested’ in the betting markets, rather than money 'gambled' with. Your prime objective is to achieve a profitable return from the funds you put ‘at risk’ when you bet, rather than purely adding to the excitement of a sporting event by having a little wager on the outcome.

I have heard it said many times that playing the stock market and investing in shares is “betting with a suit on” and in many ways this is absolutely true.

When you buy shares in a company you are using your judgement that the price of the shares will rise in the future, and you can sell to realise a profit. But you don’t know 100% that this will happen, and so there is inherent risk involved. You can see the obvious parallels with betting on horse racing.

A professional gambler will have several systems, tipsters, methods, strategies, etc assembled as a ‘portfolio’. Much like a typical investment fund the risk is spread across a number of investments. If one particular system is not performing this month, then perhaps the tipster is enjoying a purple patch. Overall, a good portfolio of betting strategies will yield a consistent profit month after month.

This brings me to a system I have been following recently, which focuses on betting on football. I am a keen football fan. I won’t tell you who I follow for fear of alienating most of my membership -- suffice it to say I have been a fan since they lost the FA Cup Final in 1976. My Dad said that May afternoon “Who are you going to shout for then?” and with a name like Redd, it wasn’t a difficult choice!

Although I love watching football, I couldn’t say I was an expert on betting on the sport. So when Socabet was voted the best non-horse racing product in my Readers Poll I thought it might be interesting to add this system to my betting portfolio, at least on probation as it were.

So far I am extremely happy with the results. Steven’s book reveals some methods and strategies that really give you an edge, and I have been profiting -- albeit only with relatively small stakes -- since my very first session. The system is covered by a generous 80 day satisfaction guarantee, so you can buy with confidence.

I’ve been in possession of Steven’s eBook since before xmas and I am most definitely more than satisfied!

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Tuesday, March 20, 2007

An introduction to advanced sectional timing

For the best part of four years punters in the UK have had a secret weapon giving them that vital 'edge' to make a profit from betting on horse racing. Yet for the most part, hardly anyone has taken advantage. What am I talking about? Sectional timing.

In a nutshell, the technology exists to show the precise position and speed of a horse at any point in a given race. We can accurately depict the very nature of every race as it unfolds. The article below from the Guardian explains in more detail:

British punters can expect a revolution in the analysis of racing, following the news that a hi-tech radio-tracking system for horses will be introduced to the country's racetracks by the end of 2003.

The new technology, which can pinpoint a runner's position to within 20cm, four times a second, will also allow races to be broadcast in a "virtual" format, both over the internet and to the latest 3G mobile phones.

The radio-tracking system has been developed by Generics Group, a technology company based in Cambridge, and will be marketed as a joint venture with TurfTrax which already produces detailed going reports for the major tracks. The so-called Super 12 courses - including Ascot, Cheltenham, Aintree, Newmarket and Epsom - are likely to be the first to benefit from the new technology.

When it is introduced, the radio-tracking system will fill what is currently a void in the study of racing form.

While the form book offers winning distances, brief comments in running, a race-time and many other details, there is little empirical analysis of the way in which a race unfolds.

The Generics system will offer a three-dimensional view of a race, with details of precisely where every runner was at every stage, and exactly how fast it was going at the time.

It will also do so in a relatively simple way, using light weight radio transponders inserted into saddlebags, sending signals to small, mobile masts around the course.

"This technology fits nicely into horseracing," Andy Rhodes, who runs Generics' wireless innovation group, said yesterday. "It's low-cost and easily deployed, you can turn up, set it up, cover the races, take it down and move on.

"All the receivers are wireless and run off batteries, and can also easily work around obstacles, from the hill in the middle of the track at Warwick, to temporary grandstands."

The amount of information that the Generics technology could yield is immense. How fast was the early pace? How much ground did Unlucky Lad lose when he was snatched up two out? And how much ground and momentum did he concede by drifting across to the stands' rail shortly afterwards?

Questions such as these, and many more, will soon have a precise answer with a firm scientific basis.

"The difference when you compare this with sectional timing, like that at Newmarket, is that it works easily at every course, and you get readings every quarter of a second, not once a furlong," Rhodes says.

"You also get a picture of what's happening across the course, not just along the length of it. If a horse appears to drop back between two furlong markers, has it pulled up a little, or just moved across the course? You can also measure the true distance run by a horse, rather than just the linear distance, and with that you can also measure its speed at every point in the race."

The Generics data will clearly be highly valuable, which is why the two companies have already ploughed £1m into the project. It is the exploitation of this in-race data - via sale to broadcasters, racing publications and individual punters - which the companies will seek to exploit first, although applications on the net and via mobile phones will also be explored.

"In a sense," Rhodes says, "there is very little data, just an 'x' and a 'y' reading and a time. This means that the information will lend itself to transmissions over the net and on mobiles, making racing much more interactive."

An online database would allow form students to watch a race in a high-quality, "virtual" format a dozen times from every possible angle, while live webcasts using the technology could turn punters into television directors. If you can't pick out your horse, click a button, and the computer will helpfully paint it yellow. You could do the same to keep tabs on the favourite, or watch a jockey's-eye view of the closing stages.

Some may see such ideas as punting for the video-game generation, but the powers of race-analysis that should soon be at punters' fingertips are something that every clever backer will appreciate.

As the technology improves, it could also offer invaluable assistance to stewards' enquiries and investigations into alleged non-triers. Rhodes says: "You can use [the data] to do almost anything. It will allow punters to use more intelligence in their betting and, hopefully, will mean they are more successful."

And so the question remains - with this relatively simple technology ready and available, and with the additional form data it can obviously provide, why is it this 'revolution' has kept such a low profile?

To discover how you could add the 'secret weapon' of sectional timing data to your form study, go to www.reddracing.co.uk/turftrax

Share in the profits

A small profit to show for my three win bets today. Share My Dream was a winner at Exeter, and managed to cover my two losses with just a half-point to spare.

No lay bets to report on.

Monday, March 19, 2007

Reach For The Top is a flop

A zero net gain was the sum of my efforts today. My three win bets all failed to win (which is bad), and so did my two lay bets (which on the other hand, is good).

Reach For The Top was the morning favourite for the handicap chase at Wincanton. However, his only winning form over fences has been in a class 4 maiden race, and his only form at this higher level saw him finish behind four horses and 44 lengths adrift of the winner - and this off a mark 5lb lower than today. I managed to lay him at 5/1 and for 2 points, and he was pulled up before three out.

Sunday, March 18, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

We saw a real 'game of two halves' today. First, Minster Abbi came in at 11/1 but was a 'void' bet, as I recommended backing her only if you could get 16/1 or bigger. I have received a few messages from members saying they did get matched. That is fantastic news for those that did, but a little galling for those that didn't - including me! As my published results reflect my own personal betting diary, then Minster Abbi will go down as a 'no bet'.

In the last minute of normal time, Strolling Vagabond popped up to win in a photo, and will have been something of a consolation to all of us who were unable to get on Minster Abbi. 4/1 was freely available about Strolling Vagabond, so I finished with 3 points profit to show for the afternoon.

No Lay Bet selections to report on today, and still the drought of good opportunities to oppose horses goes on. This month I have laid just 7 horses. 4 points profit this week though, so its not bad news - but I do like to get my money working harder than it has been of late on this side of the account.

Just over 3.5 points profit contribution from my Win Bets this week made for a solid 7 days efforts overall. Not the spectacular profits we have seen in recent weeks, but a consistent and steady upward movement of the account balance. It was a shame not to score any big priced winners at the Festival, but we have seen a few long-shots come in recently, and a 20/1 shot at Plumpton pays just as well as a 20/1 winner of the Champion Hurdle. Who needs prestige!

When it comes to making money, we have been spoilt over the past couple of months. But it is comforting when what might be seen as a 'poor' week, still results in a modest profit.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 3.5pts, Lay Bets 4pts

Saturday, March 17, 2007

Immortal perhaps, but not invincible

My two losing win bets were countered by my lay bet today, and as a result the account showed no movement overall.

My Immortal was the morning favourite for the class 2 handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter. But he has won only once from 9 starts over hurdles, and his win came in a lower class than today. He was also stepping up in distance today, and I did not feel he would get the trip. I was prepared to lay him for 2 points below 6/1

By the start his price had drifted markedly to share co-favouritism. He held a prominent position for the first half of the race, before back-pedalling to finish a distance behind the leading runners.

Friday, March 16, 2007

Cheltenham Festival - Day 4

A positive final day at Cheltenham and 5 points profit to show for my efforts. I put up seven back-to-win bets this morning. None of them were particularly original, but I felt for a change we might get some value in a few favourites today. The price on the last selection fell short and was a 'no bet', but from the remaining six bets I scored three winners. Among those was the new Gold Cup champion Kauto Star, who answered his detractors in fine style (even though once again he drew a gasp from an expectant crowd as he brushed through the last fence).

I had two lay bets today, and against the recent run of luck I actually managed to get them both matched. I wanted to be against Saintsaire in the Grand Annual Chase because he was running off his highest mark over fences without a win at this level. He was sent off the clear 5/2 favourite, but failed to make the frame. My other lay bet Osana also disappointed.

With 3 points from the win bets, and a welcome 2 points from the lay bets, I moved the account forward 5 points today.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Cheltenham Festival - Day 3

The third day of the Festival was again frustrating, as I missed another good lay bet by failing to see a low-enough price materialize, and none of my five Cheltenham value bets provided any return. I can at least be thankful that Bollin Ruth won at Hexham to reduce my loss to a single point.

My lay bet saw me wanting to oppose King Revo in the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase. He had yet to race at anywhere near this level over the larger obstacles, and although he is rated higher over hurdles and only one horse would carry less weight than him today, I felt this would be a baptism of fire. I was looking for 4/1 and to lay him for 5 points, but his price never sank below 9/2 and he went down as a 'no bet'. He was pulled up 3 out.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Cheltenham Festival - Day 2

A slight loss to the account today overall, but I had my first bet at Cheltenham and this resulted in a good value winner. Denman was many peoples' banker-bet of the day, and consequently I thought I may miss out on the value in his price as everyone 'piled on'. I did get the 6/4 I was looking for, before he was backed right in to 6/5 at the start. Never a worry, he powered away from his nearest rivals up the final straight. However, elsewhere at Huntingdon I suffered two losing bets, including Bowdlane Barb who was beaten by a head at a useful 9/2

No lay bets to report on, and so we look forward to Day 3.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Cheltenham Festival - Day 1

The first day of this year's Cheltenham Festival and it was a bright, sunny Spring afternoon to get proceedings underway. It still gets the adrenalin flowing when you hear the roar of the crowd go up at the start of the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

It was a superb day of racing, with the bookies really stealing a march on the punters. Only one clear favourite won, and we saw two big-priced winners in Ebaziyan at 40/1 and Joes Edge at 50/1 Plenty of time for the punters to win their money back!

My only action came more than 200 miles away from the Gloucestershire countryside at Sedgefield. Miss Pross won at 2/1 and was easy to back at 5/2 on the exchanges.

The lay bet I put up at Cheltenham was Amaretto Rose in the Supreme Novices Hurdle. This was obviously to be her biggest test to date, with her last win being a 17k novice hurdle at the flat Haydock track. Cheltenham takes a lot more getting, and I felt she may find one too good here up against the best geldings and horses in the country. I was prepared to lay at 2/1 but the price came down only as low as 3.15 on Betfair. So although she was beaten, this has to go down as a 'no bet'.

Overall a 2.5 point gain to the account.

Read, Invest, and Win Professional Laying System

Yesterday I posted an article about how to spot a vulnerable favourite. By coincidence, and I assure you this was not planned, I have recently finished reviewing an eBook which reveals a strategy to lay favourites for profit.

Read, Invest, and Win is a purpose-developed system for laying favourites only and can be implemented all-year round on the turf, the all-weather, and over the jumps.

If you are in a hurry you can go straight to the RIW web site to see what I am talking about by clicking here.

Martin Cowlishaw’s methods immediately struck me as unique, because he does not rely upon pure form analysis alone to arrive at his selections. Let’s face it, you must have an edge to make a profit in this game, and that invariably means taking a different approach.

The author has found certain statistical angles which have resulted in a profitable and PROVEN system. Without giving away any of Martin’s secrets, he examines not only some of the more obvious aspects of a horse’s form, but also areas that certainly I have never considered before, including the physical make up of a horse.

The methodology is simple to follow, and the book itself is laid out very clearly. You will not find any convaluted rules, so selections are definite.

Ultimately the Read, Invest, and Win system gets my strongest approval because the whole system is under-pinned by a requirement that any selection will only qualify as a bet if specific price rules are satisfied. And anyone who has been following my advice for any length of time will be more than aware of how often I preach about getting VALUE.

The eBook is covered by a risk-free satisfaction guarantee so you can buy with confidence.

For full details of the Read, Invest, and Win system click here

Monday, March 12, 2007

How to spot a vulnerable favourite

As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.

Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!

Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has the weight of the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be a point however, where the horse’s price is too low compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will start to make a profit.

So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.

Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced too low every time – sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.

If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we would remain around the break even point, because the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we would watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.

So how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?

One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a horse’s form. It will not surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.

Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the market leader in any given race:

1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today's race.
2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today's track or one with similar characteristics.
3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.
4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today's distance.
5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.
6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today's ground.
7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.
8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days.
9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.

Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for example) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.

As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get involved in laying him to lose.

On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may want to consider taking her on.

In summary: race favourites are often a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices too low compared to their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet.

If you are interested in laying horses to lose then I recommend you get yourself a copy of Henry McAnenly's best-selling eBook on the subject Betting Against Horses For Profit

Monday racing summary

A two point loss today, as my win selections both lost.

My lay selection was Eden Linty in the mares only maiden hurdle at Taunton. In her last outing it is arguable she may have given Gaspara a run for her money before falling, and she [Gaspara] goes to Cheltenham this week with high hopes. But she was still very much unproven over hurdles, with her only win to date a class 6 NH flat race. I was prepared to lay bets against her if I could get as low as 8/13 odds-on but the price never quite sank as low as this. She did win the race, and the Gaspara form indicator was franked - but she only won by a length, and not in the style of a 4/6 odds-on 'hot pot'.

Sunday, March 11, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

A small profit from my win bets today, thanks to a win from Scarlet Mix at Warwick. He won convincingly under Richard Johnson at 3/1 and there was plenty of 7/2 to be had on the exchanges.

I didn't get a low enough price on my lay bet Runthatpastmeagain in the novice hurdle at Market Rasen, so it will have to go down as a 'no bet'. This was only his second race, and on his previous outing he finished 11 lengths behind the winner. I thought he would be a contender today, but if I could have gotten a price around 11/8 I felt he would be a value lay bet. I was right to oppose him, and he failed to justify favouritism, finishing second, but his price was always too high (in my opinion) to justify the risk.

This week I returned a healthy profit of 12 points from my Win Bets. Not such good news with my Lay Bet account, which suffered a loss a shade under 6 points. The lay opportunities remain very thin on the ground, and I have had only 2 bets this week.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 12pts, Lay Bets -6pts

Endless Power stops the rot

I was preparing myself for a white-wash today before Endless Power stepped up to the plate at Ayr and clawed back most of my losses. No real damage done at the end of the day, and the account fell back by less than a point.

I imagine we are all looking forward to Tuesday at Cheltenham with much anticipation. Let's hope it is a profitable week as well as a true spectacle of jump racing.

Saturday, March 10, 2007

Friday racing summary

The results will show a quiet day for Friday: just one win bet which lost, leaving the account a single point down. However, what you will not see are the two winners which do not get recorded, because they did not reach my recommended value prices. Both Inch High at Ayr, and Dicky Lewis at Leicester, came home the winners of their respective races at 13/2 and 3/1

My only lay bet was Morgan Be in the handicap chase at Ayr. He was stepping up in class, and also up in distance in holding ground so I had concerns he would get the trip. In handicap company for the first time he was also giving weight to all but one of his competitors. I was looking to lay him if I could get 6/4 But it would appear the market had similar concerns to me. Few people were prepared to back him at less than 2/1 and he was eventually returned the 5/2 favourite. So this also was a 'no bet'. Just as well, as he proved the layers wrong and produced the strongest finish of the 3 runners to complete.

Thursday, March 08, 2007

Thursday racing summary

I took with one hand and gave back with the other today. Missis Potts was my only win bet, and scored nicely at 4/1 with 5/1 available if following the market on the exchanges.

My lay bet was Petitjean in the handicap chase over 2m 5f. He was 10lbs over his winning mark in this class, and on his previous outings he has not shown he relishes testing ground. I went against him for 6 points and got it completely wrong I'm afraid. He won very well, although at a price a shade under 6/4 it was a risk I was happy to accept. A loss of 9 points on this account, and 4 points down on the day in all.

Wednesday, March 07, 2007

Walk in the park for Strolling Vagabond

After a few days with no bets to speak of, I'm glad to say that normal service was resumed for today at least. From three back-to-win selections I scored a good-priced winner in Strolling Vagabond at Fontwell. Approaching the start his price drifted out as far as 9/1 on the exchanges as initially the market was favouring the other three leading contenders. A welcome 7 points profit to add to the account.

My first lay bet for some days also, was Maktu in the maiden hurdle at Fontwell. Here was a horse still contesting a maiden race after 14 starts, yet still on offer at odds-on. He was sent off the 4/5 odds-on favourite and I was happy to lay him to lose 2 points, giving me 2.5 points profit when he finished behind Back On Line.

Overall a profit of more than 9 points on the day.

Tuesday, March 06, 2007

Old Nags Cheltenham Tipster Competition

With the Cheltenham Festival just around the corner I thought I would tell you about a competition being run by the Old Nags horse racing forum

Also, for all those of you who continually tell me you could do better than me by sticking a pin in a copy of The Racing Post, here's your chance to put your money where your mouth is!

The Forum invites you to enter their Cheltenham Champion Tipster competition. It costs just £10 to enter and there are some very good prizes on offer, including free entrance to various race courses, free bets and betting vouchers from leading bookmakers, and a ONE YEAR complimentary membership to my service valued at £120.

More importantly, there is a very tempting CASH Prize Fund for the leading tipsters at the end of the Festival.

You will have to register with the site as you need to be a member to post your selections. The prize fund is growing day by day as more and more people enter the competition to swell the coffers. Make sure you register quickly as entries close on this coming Saturday.

The competition rules can be found on the forum itself, so pay a visit, get registered, and the very best of luck!

Go to Old Nags Racing at http://michaelmickh.proboards100.com/index.cgi

All quiet on the Western Front

I'm experiencing something of a stagnant period at the moment. Again today I have no bets to report. I put up five potential selections this morning, but all five remained firmly below my recommended value price, so they all go down as 'no bets'.

Today's results did however, highlight how important it is to remain disciplined and only bet when value is on your side. Anyone simply following my selections blindly today, with no regard to getting a value price, would find themselves staring down the barrel of a 5 point loss. However, if you were following my advice properly (and this is where I can help turn your betting into a profit-making venture) then you would not have risked any of your hard-earned bankroll. Sure, we didn't make any money today, but equally we didn't lose our discipline AND our money.

With no lay bet selections either, it will be confusing for anyone currently receiving a week trial of my service. Having read about great profits in both January and February, my service is currently about as exciting as watching paint dry! It's not usually like this - honest!

That cannot be helped - I only bet myself when the right opportunities present themselves, and I don't bet for the sake of entertainment. Like you, I'm not in this 'game' for fun, but to make a profit. When the opprotunities come along, we will be there to take advantage. Until then we will keep our money safe.

Monday, March 05, 2007

Monday racing summary

With the meeting at Hereford called off, the opportunities today were thin on the ground. I proposed one win bet, but this never reached my value price. So nothing to report, and my powder was kept dry for another day.

Sunday, March 04, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

No bets to report on today. I had no Lay Bets to put up, and none of my back-to-win selections reached their target price.

Another good week for backing horses as I made a shade over 14 points profit. I'm proud to report a 100% success rate with my lay bets, but to put that into context, the past seven days have again been very quiet and only three opportunities presented themselves. But I secured an extra 5 points profit nonetheless.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 14pts, Lay Bets 5pts

Luck runs out for Nellerie

A typical busy Saturday with 5 win bets qualifying as final selections. Two of these returned as winners, namely the impressive Orcadian at Newbury and Bywell Beau at Kelso. Taking advantage of the prices available on the exchanges I made over 3.5 points profit here.

Many people would have had their betting activities curtailed as a bomb scare led to the evacuation of the Betfair buildings, and a suspension of the Betfair web site. No problem for me as I have a secondary account with Betdaq and I was able to continue trading. I recommend everyone should have an account because not only does it give you an alternative in situations such as today, but on a day-to-day basis you can compare prices with Betfair and always get the best value. Go to www.reddracing.co.uk/betdaq and open an account today.

I also got the Lay Bets account off the mark this month with two successful lay bets, and four points profit. First, I got Lucky Nellerie beaten at Kelso. Then, I was keen to be against Procas De Thaix in the bumper at Newbury. Here was a horse having only his second race in public. His previous win was a class 5 National Hunt flat race and today he was contesting a class 2 event, over a longer trip, and against several horses of unknown ability. I was happy to lay for 3 points if I could get a price of 2/1 or lower, and indeed during the course of the day he was backed to as low as 11/8 before drifting out to a SP of 15/8F Doubtless the trainer/jockey combination of Nicky Henderson and Mick Fitzgerald helped deflate the price in my favour.

Come the end of another profitable Saturday afternoon I had put more than 7 points profit in the bag.

Friday, March 02, 2007

Sensible Money Management ~ Part Two

In a previous article I jokingly suggested I had put all my assets – my savings, the deeds to the farm, my kids’ Trust fund, and the proceeds from selling one of my kidneys – on a horse at Newbury. I showed this was potentially financial suicide, and an extreme example of bad money management.

I wrote that more often than not a losing punter will find himself saddled with a bunch of bad betting habits. It is these bad habits that have gotten him, and his betting bank, to where his is now – the Poor House.

To arrive at a change in fortune, and to start making consistent profits, the losing punter has to be prepared to make changes to the way in which he bets. In the previous article we talked about the cornerstone supporting my own personal betting strategy, and that is finding value in every bet you make.

You will only ever make a profit from betting if you consistently back horses at prices too high when compared to their actual chance of winning. This is exactly how bookmakers have made their money for generations – they consistently lay horses at prices too low compared to the actual chance of the horse winning. When punters continue to take these low prices day-in and day-out, it will only ever be the bookmakers who come out with a profit in the long run.

The second ‘bad habit’ I want to examine is the subject of inappropriate staking. What do I mean by staking that is not appropriate? Well, what I am driving at is placing bets that are generally too large in proportion to the size of your betting bank.

Before I expand upon this, the concept of a betting bank is a side-issue in itself. You categorically MUST have a sum of money put aside for the sole purpose of betting. It scares me rigid when I hear of people simply ‘dipping’ into their current account to place a bet using their debit card.

If you do not have a separate account for your betting activities, you cannot keep records, and you will not be able to answer that simple question, “Am I making a profit, or a loss?”

It goes without saying, that betting involves a degree of risk, and you should never bet with money you cannot afford to lose.

Getting back to inappropriate staking, the idea of lumping all your money on one horse is an extreme example of over-staking. Of course, on the one occasion this strategy may pay off. We had friends round a few nights ago to play one of those Race Night DVDs. I was comfortably in front by studying the form before each race, and placing considered bets at what I considered to be value prices. As you might imagine, I had a suitably smug expression on my face as we came to the last race, and our friends were complaining I enjoyed a ‘professional advantage’.

My wife then decided to put every penny she had left on an 8/1 chance. The race turned out to be the ‘lucky last’ for my wife, and she walked away with the whole bank!

But seriously, continue with these tactics, and it will not be long before you lose everything.

Personally, I would never consider starting any betting campaign with a bankroll of less than 100 points. In other words, I will divide my bank by 100 to arrive at my unit stake. You can see that I will only ever be putting 1% of my bank at risk when I place a bet.

This is a very generalised approach, and you might argue that a little more consideration should be given to a punter’s typical strike rate. True, if someone has a strike rate of 50% then it is statistically highly unlikely that he will suffer a run of 100 losers to go bust. So, in this case you might be justified in operating a smaller bank. Bear in mind that when flipping a coin, it is by no means unusual to see 6 or 7 ‘heads’ in succession, and losing runs in double figures do occur.

Erring on the side of caution, you could foresee two such losing runs occurring twice in close succession. In which case, I hope you can see that even when considering a system which such a high strike rate, having a bank of well over 20 points now seems very sensible.

With my own Redd Racing betting service, we enjoy what I would consider to be quite a healthy strike rate. However, we have experienced a negative swing of some 60 points during one particular month a couple years back. The account recovered to make a profit by the end of the month, but it underlined the importance of having a bankroll large enough to absorb the losing runs that EVERYBODY has to endure from time to time.

Indeed, it would probably be better advice if I suggested members of my service had a bankroll of 150 or even 200 points in reserve.

Yet I often receive emails asking me whether it is OK to deposit £100 with Betfair and start with unit stakes of £10.

Betting with stakes too high in proportion to your bank normally comes out of a desire to make money quickly. I think we are all guilty of getting overly greedy sometimes, and unwilling to think a little more long-term. People are inclined to set themselves unrealistic profit targets, given the size of their betting bankroll. Having a bank of £100 and expecting to be able to make £100 per month is not realistic. Get-rich-quick does not exist.

Akin to the Tortoise and Hare story, let me give you an example of where what might initially seem like a very moderate return, actually gives surprising results over time.

If you started with £100 in your betting bank, and increased this bank by just one-half of one per cent every day, after just 6 months your account would have a balance of £244 due to the compounding effect. You could more than double your investment in 6 months with this seemingly small daily profit return. Take that to your bank or building society and see if they can come anywhere near such a deal!

Hopefully this demonstrates how ‘slowly but surely’ wins the race.

To summarize, my advice would be to set your unit stakes at one per cent, or even one half of one per cent, of your total betting bank. By striking only value bets, and when the odds are in your favour, your betting bank will grow. As your bank grows, so you can naturally increase the size of your unit stake to make more profit – but your bets will still be in proportion to your bank.

In the next part of this Sensible Money Management series, I will look at more bad habits that suck money from the accounts of losing punters.

Mr Prickle a pain to watch

Another quiet day, with just one qualifying bet. I was happy to see the price on Mr Prickle reach 10/1 on the exchanges, and I thought I had secured a great value bet. However, by the end of the race and having finished last of the seven runners, it was apparent the market had got the measure of this one, showing me up in the process.

No lay bets to report on, and so a solitary point comes off the bottom line.

Thursday, March 01, 2007

Thursday racing summary

An inauspicious start to the month, and the first day of Spring saw my account fall back by just under a point. I had four bets, three losers, but re-couped most of this loss with a win from Parkinson at Ludlow. No significant impact on the account to speak of.