Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Wednesday racing summary

After something of a struggle on my part, my daily message finally got through, and I was recommending three horses to back, and one to oppose, all at Folkestone. Femme D'Avril was a non-runner, the 25's I was hoping for about Alfa Sunrise had evaporated along with the early morning frost here in Tring (shame, because the horse won!), and Brilliant wasn't (brilliant). One point lost.

I got this point back though by opposing Pardon What in the 2m 6f handicap hurdle at the Kent track. He hadn't won a race since November 2005, off a lower mark than today, and I saw no reason to believe that this was to be the day when it all came good. He was sent off the 9/4 favourite and never looked like he would take the spoils.

A zero net gain on the account, and so a quiet end to the month.

TODAY'S MESSAGE

We are experiencing some technical difficulties with our mail service provider this morning. My message was sent at 10:55am but as I type this message, apparently it is still "queued for sending" because of "unusually high levels of traffic".

I can only apologise for this inconvenience, and for anybody who has thought to check here, today's advices follow below:

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HORSES TO FOLLOW TODAY:
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Horses you can back to win. I am looking for horses well-fancied to win their race, but also at a value price. To make a profit from betting, not only must you make successful selections, but you must get a favourable return from your investment. If you are unable to get the price I have advised, I suggest it is better that you do not bet.

Here are today's fancied horses:

Folk 210 Femme D'Avril at 2.63 or better
Folk 320 Alfa Sunrise at 26.00 or better
Folk 455 Brilliant at 8.00 or better


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HORSES TO OPPOSE TODAY:
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Remember, you are betting AGAINST these horses, on the betting exchanges such as Betfair or Betdaq, as their price will be too short compared to their actual chance of winning.

Folk  2:45  Pardon What at 4.50 or lower


NOTES :

Extra strength bets are indicated accordingly, eg. Red Rum(2) means you should bet twice your minimum stake (my maximum bet is 10 points).

I have also indicated what I believe to be the value price. You would be advised to lay the selection only if you can get this price or below.

You should understand that these horses still win their races in turn, but if you CONSISTENTLY lay horses that are over-bet then you will make a profit in the long term, just like the high-street bookmakers.

Tuesday, February 27, 2007

Krackin' Kercabellec

Firstly, thank you to everyone who sent me jokes in response to my post yesterday - none of which are suitable for re-publishing on this blog! (but they made me laugh all the same)

More than happy to be reporting on a busier day today, with three bets and two decent winners. Cool Cossack went down by a neck at Catterick, which would have been a good start. But no matter, as I followed up with Marshall Hall and Kercabellec who both won at starting prices of 5/1 and 7/1 respectively.

Better value could be had on the exchanges, and 14 points profit to add to the account.

SkyBlueKangaroo.com ~ update

I noticed that SkyBlueKangaroo.com now has a dedicated 'Horse Racing' category on their info product web site.

It's listed under 'Sports and Recreation' on their home page at www.SkyBlueKangaroo.com

Monday, February 26, 2007

Monday racing summary

No lay bets today, and only one win bet was available at my recommended price, and that lost. A quiet day. Anyone know any jokes?

Sunday, February 25, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

I had two Win bets today, with Heez A Dreamer coming home a winner at 2/1 with plenty of 3/1 available during the course of the afternoon on the exchanges.

My only Lay bet today was President Royal in the handicap hurdle at Exeter. He was still a maiden after five starts, and today we saw him stepping up in class, and running in handicap company for the first time. At a price of 11/4 or lower I thought this would be a good lay bet, and indeed the gelding was sent off the 2/1 favourite. The horse won comfortably, and today I got it wrong (albeit for only the third time in 20 races this month).

So at the close of play this afternoon, I had won 2 points backing horses, then lost them both on President Royal. No damage done.

Another outstanding week, even though I say so myself, with just over 45 points profit on the Back-To-Win account. In a very quiet week for the Lay bets account I had just the four bets, with three successful lays and 4 points profit to show.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 45pts, Lay Bets 4pts

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Valiant Warrior lands the spoils at Lingfield

Another profitable Saturday, with the back-to-win account finishing more than 17 points up. Four bets reached my advised prices, and two of them won, including Wavertree Warrior who timed his run perfectly to get up on the line at Lingfield. The SP was 15/2 but his price was up and down all morning, and you could have secured 11's and 12's on the exchanges.

I seem to have found a groove with my lay bets this month (I'm touching wood whilst typing this entry with one finger!). Today I put forward two morning favourites to oppose, and they both lost. Grand Passion in the Derby trial at Lingfield was the last to finish, but never sank below my advised price, so goes down as a 'no bet'.

I also suggested going against the favourite for the Eider Chase at Newcastle - Teeming Rain. He had never won at this level, and was on his highest handicap mark. This was to be the furthest he had ever raced over fences, and the ground at Newcastle today was really desperate. I thought the task ahead of him was too much, and indeed he was pulled up well before the finishing straight.

Two more points to add to the Lay Bets account, and a total of more than 19 points profit for the day.

On a sad note, I would like to take this opportunity to pay my respects to Truckers Tavern who sadly died of a heart-attack in the Eider Chase. A stalwart campaigner, who but for the legendary Best Mate would have been a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner. RIP.

Friday, February 23, 2007

Friday racing summary

Today was a lesson in discipline, which saved me from losing 3 points profit. I had no lay bets, but proposed four horses to back. Only the one horse qualified as a final selection, Joli Classical, by virtue of reaching the value price I suggested. It didn't win. The three other horses I put forward also lost, but by having the discipline to only bet when the odds were in my favour, I avoided three losing horses at skinny prices of 7/2, evens, and 6/4

Making a long term profit from betting means limiting your losses as well as picking winners, and today was a clear demonstration of how my approach can add to your bottom line. Everyone has losing days, but the punter whose losing days do not cripple his/her bankroll will probably be the punter making a profit overall.

Thursday, February 22, 2007

Off his Rocker

I suffered a small loss on the win bet account today. Three bets qualified as final selections, but two of them lost. I managed to get a good deal of this back with Chief Yeoman at Huntingdon. There was plenty of 13/8 available during the course of the morning, although he was eventually backed in to 6/5F at the start.

Another successful lay bet, and today I was against Little Rocker in the handicap hurdle at Haydock. This was his handicap debut, and I'm always cautious with horses with scant form to speak of, being thrown in towards the top of the weights. To date he had only one win to his name. I suggested a 2 point bet, and he was pulled up without ever travelling fluently, the 9/4 favourite.

A profit of just over a point overall.

Wednesday, February 21, 2007

Wednesday racing summary

A day to catch our breath after the exhileration of yesterday. Just one Win Bet on Nimby Run, which came home the disappointing last finisher after maintaining a prominent position for a good portion of the race.

I had no Lay Bets to put forward, so a drop of a single point on the day.

Betting In-Running - Don't Try This At Home Kids!

Betting on the exchanges has many advantages - better value, lay as well as back, no closed accounts, etc. (read my article about betting on the exchanges) and one feature is the opportunity to continue betting on the outcome of an event, even whilst it is still in progress. This is known as betting "in-running".

But this article from Betfair clearly shows how trading in the in-running markets is like betting on steroids, and definitely not for the faint-hearted. Gave me palpitations just reading about it!

Published on the Betfair web site 20th February 18:20hrs

Trading Up hits Betfair peak during amazing Taunton win

Trading Up did just that during in-running betting on Betfair on Tuesday – hitting the market high of 1000 before romping home in a dramatic race at Taunton.

The Irish gelding was a massive 23 lengths back four jumps from home, but reeled in his opponents to land a whopping win for punters who got on at Betfair’s ceiling price.

Of course, when there are long winners there are short-priced losers and there was a trio of them in the two mile seven furlong Handicap Chase.

Punters were convinced that Irish contender Mighty Moose would win but he was pegged back on the final straight by Trading Up to dash the hopes of backers who took the gelding’s price down to 1.06.

Gunship also looked likely to land first prize and was matched at a low of 1.34 before unseating Richard Johnson two from home. (This was my lay bet of the day)

And it was another Irish horse, Treasulier, who completed the threesome of odds-on losers. The 10-year-old was matched at 1.8 before eventually finishing in second place.

There you have it, extreme betting from Betfair!

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

Five Go Mad In Taunton

Well, four in Taunton and one in Sedgefield to be precise. Rocky's Girl made it five winners from six today, and more than 19 points profit from backing horses to win. I've had many messages of congratulations, and thank you to everyone who has taken the trouble to drop me a line. Let's enjoy today, but not get carried away. "One swallow does not a summer make..." and all that. From experience I can tell you that fortune has a nasty habit of turning around a biting you in the bum every so often. So let's put our winnings in the bank, and I promise I will try to maintain my form.

My lay bet was Gunship in the handicap chase, again at Taunton. He had only won once in his eleven starts, and that was on his last outing in a class 5 event. Today he was stepping up in class, and carrying an extra 11lbs for his previous win. This I felt would be a serious burden in today's stamina-sapping ground. He was in pole position when entering the home straight, but I think his legs were weary when he unseated Richard Johnson, and I'm not sure he wouldn't have been passed before the line anyway. This successful bet netted me an extra 2 points profit, and so far this month I have successfully opposed 15 from 17 race favourites (or at least morning favourites).

In total, a fraction over 21 points profit for the day.

Monday, February 19, 2007

Bellissimo!

The marketing guys selling that well-known Irish stout tell us "good things come to those who wait" and never a truer word spoken today. I didn't get my message out until after 1 o'clock this lunchtime, but I think it was worth the delay.

Five back-to-win selections, and three of them reached my recommended value prices. Two of these went on to win. Camden Bella gave us more than our fair share of entertainment at Carlisle, as she rallied from 6 lengths down after the last to just get her nose in front on the line. I managed to get matched at 13/2 but I've had messages saying 8/1 was available on the exchanges. Well done to everyone who got best prices, but I will be putting on the account what I was able to get personally. Another favourite of mine this season, Lou Lou Nivernais also brought home the bacon at Market Rasen. More than 8 points profit today.

My only lay bet was to be a decent 4 point bet against the morning favourite in Camden Bella's race, Brooklyn Breeze. However, his price never fell to the value I was looking for so it goes down on the account as a 'no bet'.

Week-end racing summary and weekly results

Apologies for posting the week-end action a bit late. I took the family up to Cheshire to visit friends, took in a day at the racing at Haydock on Saturday, and we didn't get back to Tring until yesterday evening.

I returned over 5 points profit from my win bets on Saturday - but it could have been a whole lot better! I tipped up L'Aventure in the Red Square Vodka Gold Cup Chase at Haydock, and into the last furlong she was coming home with a 'wet sail'! If you were watching I'm sure you thought she was going to win. I was doing my pieces at the track I can tell you! But she found one of the other mares, also carrying a light weight, just too good, just held off by a length at a price of 14/1. Never mind.

In the same race I was opposing the morning line favourite Kilbeggan Blade. He was coming off a hat-trick of wins culminating in a class 3 victory. However, today he was stepping up to class 1 and asked to carry yet more weight - this time another 12lbs. In the heavy going I felt this would be just too much, and indeed he didn't even finish. So I got back my stake on L'Aventure.

On Sunday I had the one bet on Radnor lad at Towcester, but he finished 3rd.

A most satisfying week for both accounts, after a very quiet start to the month, especially with my Win Bets. This week the back-to-win account moved forward by 11.5 points, and the lay bets returned almost 14 points profit:- 25 points profit overall.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 11.5pts, Lay Bets 13.5pts

Friday, February 16, 2007

Friday racing summary

A quiet day today, with one placed win bet and my sole lay bet not making a final selection. Mokum finished 2nd in the handicap chase at Sandown. I think we got good value at upwards of 6/1 and he only failed to beat the favourite.

I advised to be against Be Telling if the price fell below 4/6 odds-on. The market actually went the other way so you should have avoided this one if following my advice correctly. The horse had been well clear of the field in a similar event at Huntingdon last time out, and had the race at his mercy when he fell. So it could be argued he had the form to win this race. However, he was raised 7lbs despite falling, and the doubt over his jumping remained. So if I could lay bets against him at well below odds-on then that would have been good value in my opinion. As it happens his price drifted from a low of around 1.7 - 1.8 out to 2.7 at the off, so we never had the chance to get enough value - and this was a profitable decision as he won very easily.

Thursday, February 15, 2007

Canada Street paves the way

All change today, and a wind of better fortune blew my way. Before today, so far this month I've had just 2 winners, and the back-to-win account had fallen a little over a point. So a lot of form study for no gain. But, when you have confidence in your approach, it pays to remain disciplined and continue doing what has proven profitable in the past.

Three winners from four bets, and a shade over 6 points profit. Canada Street returned the best value, winning at 5/2 but available at 4/1 on the exchanges during the morning.

The day wasn't spoilt either by my two lay bets -- both odds-on favourites. As an aside, and I know it's after-timing, but I was sorely tempted to lay Sculastic at Kelso. The horse is still a maiden but was offered at 1/6 odds-on today. This is a ridiculous price, but I honestly couldn't see any of his rivals beating him, so I didn't take it any further. No wonder bookies make money, when punters are prepared to take such skinny odds! Anyway, I did oppose Snow Patrol in the first maiden hurdle at Chepstow -- but he won. Only cost me a point though.

Then I was against Boomshakalaka in division two of the maiden hurdle, but this time risking 3 points. This was only the horse's third run, and his debut jumping obstacles. To date his only winning form is in a class 6 National Hunt Flat race, on good to firm ground. Today he was running around the stiff track at Chepstow, in testing ground, so there were doubts surrounding his stamina. Yet he was still sent off the 8/13 favourite. Doubtless the Henderson/Fitzgerald trainer/jockey combination helped artificially depress the price. He came in second, and at a price odds-on I was able to increase my stake and still only risk my 3 points.

By the end of the afternoon I had picked up a shade over 11 points profit for my efforts. A welcome result after a slow first half to the month.

Wednesday, February 14, 2007

Wednesday racing summary

I drew a complete blank today. Three back-to-win selections were available with potentially good returns, but all three lost.

I proposed opposing two race favourites, and although both lost, because they were not offered at low enough prices the risk was too great for me, and I did not bet.

Not a day to write home about, but its just a day. One small piece of a much bigger jigsaw. Today I lost 3 points profit, but to put it into context I have moved the account forward by more than 7 points over the past week. The last 30 days shows a profit well in excess of 70 points! One reason alone to have a betting bank of at least 100 points, is so that a losing day where the account dips by three ticks is of very little concern or consequence. An appropriately-sized bankroll allows you to move forward with confidence and discipline.

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Far-out day!

Phareight Dei was a welcome winner at Folkestone today -- only my second so far this month, but brings the account back into profit. The exchanges were offering a tasty 11/2 about this horse first thing this morning, before shrinking to 7/2 by start time. My other selection Tanzanite Dawn did not perform as well, but this loss still left me 4.5 points up.

Yet another successful lay bet today, and the tally is ten from eleven so far this month -- all morning line favourites, if not eventual race favourites. Today Monda was contesting a 6f handicap at Southwell. She has been running in several handicaps of this calibre of late, without success, and I saw nothing to persuade me today would be the day she came home in front. Especially having been put up 3lbs since her last run. She was close enough turning into the home straight, but as others showed a turn of foot she remained one-paced and finished 7th.

A good day, and 5.5 points profit.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Monday racing summary

Park Lane Princess was my only back-to-win bet today. Around lunchtime you could have backed this filly at 5/2 before her price came right in to 13/8F. The value had certainly gone by the time the tapes went up, so hopefully a good few of you will have avoided this one. But officially it has to go down as a losing bet.

My good form continues with my lay bets, and I got another three well-fancied horses beaten again today. I was convinced The Local would fail to get his head in front today. He has contested several class 3 handicaps of late, and not found the winners enclosure. Although his handicap mark has fallen accordingly, he was in fact up a pound since his last effort. What convinced me to go against him was a step up in trip that was bound to be exaggerated by the heavy going today at Plumpton. Those who watched the race will have seen the horses practically 'treading water' on the home stretch. Taking a price of a shade under 11/4 available on the exchanges around lunchtime, I laid him 5 points to lose, and he staggered in 3rd.

My two other lay bets were also successful, so a welcome 7 points profit in total, and 6 points overall for the day, taking the loss on Park Lane Princess into account.

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

With my only bet failing to reach its value price, there is nothing to report and the account remains unchanged.

Altogether a very quiet week, due in no uncertain terms to the bad weather. I had just three Win Bets, and all lost, so three points to come off the account here. Only four Lay Bets in the past seven days. But better news here as all four were successful bets, albeit for just a single point each. So no damage done overall.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets -3pts, Lay Bets 4pts

Saturday, February 10, 2007

Subbie goes down

The disappointing run of form continued today with my win bets. Two more failed to score this afternoon, and I fear I'm heading for a losing week on this side of the book.

By contrast, although relatively quiet with fewer bets than normal because the bad weather has curtailed a sizeable portion of the racing, this week has so far been pretty good for my lay bets. Another morning line favourite was successfully opposed today, as Spot The Subbie went down at Lingfield. Having won on his last two outings he was as short as 6/4 this morning. However, he was stepping up in class to contest this afternoon's race, and carrying an extra 6lbs since his last win. I thought it was too stiff a task for him, and he finished second to the eventual race favourite. I also suggested going against Ashley Brook in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury, but although he lost, his price never quite dipped as short as the 2/1 I was looking for, and goes down as a 'no bet'.

A loss of one point overall today.

Friday, February 09, 2007

Friday racing summary

The snowy weather is currently playing havoc with the racing schedule, even the all-weather(?) meets. One win bet today, which finished 3rd, so a point to take off the account balance.

My only lay bet didn't materialise as Wolverhampton was abandoned to snow after the third race.

It's been a totally atypical week so far -- far fewer proposed selections than normal, and even fewer selections reaching a value price. Consequently there hasn't been much action to speak of. Let's hope the global warming everyone has been raving on about kicks in soon, so we can enjoy some more profitable punting!

Play The Tote Scoop6 - Not The Lottery

By Malcolm Boyle

The Tote Scoop6 is far better value than the National Lottery, it's for serious punters who want a chance of winning a huge return on a tiny stake. The Tote Scoop6 is like the National Lottery for the more discerning. It offers potentially huge dividends for a very modest investment.

The differences are equally obvious - the National Lottery is strictly for mug punters only. Unfortunately for Lottery owners Camelot, they seem to be in short supply in this country now, as the public has turned up its nose at the Lotto.

By contrast, 100,000 players every week are investing in the Tote Scoop6, in the belief that they are in control of their destiny regarding the wager. To an extent, they are correct, and they certainly have far more control than is the case in the National Lottery.

Odds of more than 14 million to one govern the Lotto, whereas Tote Scoop6 punters can reduce their odds dramatically, by making their own decisions regarding the horses that they nominate to carry their cash.

Sorry to labour the point, but the Lottery is an example of everything that is wrong in today's society - a quick fix, characterless contest. It's almost distasteful to compare the moronic pursuit of the plastic balls to the Sport of Kings. When investing in the Tote Scoop6, punters know that months of endeavour have helped to produce each of the six races that make up the Tote Scoop card each week.

Just viewing a jockey, weighing less than 8st, trying to control half a ton of thoroughbred should be enough to convince you of the Scoop6's supremacy. After all, your cash is surely far better spent supporting an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of people, than on the corporate, tacky Lottery.

Anyone with even a fleeting interest in the sport will tell you how they were affected by the loss of Persian Punch in April, and how racing can produce extreme emotions, both good and bad for different reasons. I haven't seen a weekly or monthly magazine for 'Lotto' supporters, or television programmes that attempt to educate punters about which balls might come out in any particular sequence!

Scoop6 Tactics

The Tote Scoop6, then, is for the more skilful client. They can select short-priced favourites, or opt for more speculative runners, if they're trying to win the swag for themselves, not wishing to share the dividend with anybody else.

Informed clients can insure against losing, if for example they have selected the first four winners, by laying horses on the internet.

The Tote placepot part of the wager also offers investors the chance to win plenty of cash without actually selecting a winner at all!

The potential rewards of Tote Scoop6 are considerable. First of all, the Place Fund is a useful consolation if you don't land the big win, but all your selections are placed. The average dividend pays £572, which is similar to the average placepot return. Of course the dividend can vary dramatically, but as most of the races feature competitive TV racing with good size fields, there is always the potential for a four-figure return.

As recently as Lincoln Handicap day back in March last year, the Place Fund returned a dividend of £6,336, on the back of some good competitive racing from Doncaster and Newbury. The other benefit of the Place consolation is that it can prolong your enjoyment of the TV racing if your win selections have gone down.

Should you win the Win Fund by picking all six winners, you'll be looking at an average payment to date of around £93,000. Again, the dividend will vary depending upon the size of the rollover pool and the number of winners. However, it's worth pointing out that the Win Fund return for Tote Scoop6 regularly beats the equivalent SP accumulator bet. What's more, if you're a single winner there's the chance of an absolutely monstrous win.

Ron Nicholson is the best example of this in recent times. Ron landed a huge win of £878,939 for a £4 bet in April last year. That beats most bookmakers' traditional limits on payouts.

On top of the Win Fund, there's always the chance of the Bonus the following week. The Bonus is difficult to win, so rollovers build up fast. The average Bonus return to date stands at just under £200,000, with the record payout being £853,245, landed by a syndicate at Newmarket in August 2003 - not a bad return on top of the Win and Place winnings the previous week!

85% of Scoop6 investments come via individual players, with syndicates making up the rest of the pool. Syndicates are available to anyone who wishes to team up with family, friends or work colleagues, who can pool their resources and enter permutations that give such clients a more realistic chance of scooping the pool.

Many heads are better than one

One tactic employed by syndicates is to select two runners in what appear to be the four hardest races to judge, and bank on just one horse in the other two events. The total stake for such a wager would be £32, via a 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 1 x 1 entry, which equals sixteen bets (at £2 per line).

Dropping back to basics, just ask yourself what is the realistic price of selecting the first ball that drops out of the 'Lotto' machine. The answer of course is 48/1, whilst (before form is analysed) the price of any horse to win a ten-runner event (as an example) is 9/1.

Cynics would suggest that 'Lotto' players have six chances (via the number of selections), which reduce those 48/1 odds. The realist in me suggests however, that the further you get into the 'competition', the harder it is to win.

After the fifth ball is known, for example, the realistic odds for a chosen number to emerge are 43/1. Compare that to the sixth and final leg of the Placepot, and you will quickly determine that the further you go in the Tote Scoop6, the easier it is to ensure that you do not lose on your original stake. That's a scenario that is impossible to organise within the lottery format.

Lottery players could argue that the 'bonus ball' enters the equation after the sixth ball is drawn, but Tote Scoop6 investors would react by suggesting that the 'place fund' is still running for them, if their first five selections had been successful.

Finally, I should endorse the cynic's view that good causes have seen only a small percentage of the National Lottery money, which was promised all those years ago, unlike the fat cats, who have been lapping up the cream for the last ten years.

By contrast, all the profits that emerge from the Tote Scoop6 go back into the horse racing industry, and I refer you back to the earlier paragraphs of this article if you wish to know why that can only be a good thing.

In short, brainless balls are for losers - hail the Tote Scoop6!

Thursday, February 08, 2007

Thursday racing summary

It was no real surprise that none of my win bets were available at any kind of value price today. With so many withdrawn horses because of the weather, the fancied horses' prices all shrank. No matter. No damage to the account.

My single lay bet was against Red Raptor at Southwell. The horse has yet to produce any winning form, although he did come very close in a similar race about a month ago at Lingfield. My thoughts were this was a one-off as he isn't an improving type, so I decided to be against him if the price was favourable. He finished fourth the 3/1 joint-favourite, and in so doing put another point in my pocket.

Wednesday, February 07, 2007

He came, but he didn't conquer

Another quiet day as the cold snap claimed the two jumps meetings again. I did have three proposed bets at Lingfield, but neither of my two win bets reached my value price. This meant we missed a winner with Super Frank, but also avoided Rain And Shade which lost at odds-on. It's been an extremely quiet month so far when it has come to finding horses to back at value prices. But these periods soon pass, and before you know it we are backing half a dozen horses each day!

My single lay bet was successful, as I got Roman Boy beaten. Five years ago this horse had a rating of 80 and was showing solid form in class 4 events. However, he has been running in several class 6 handicaps this year, and yet to win. Stepping up in class today, I saw no reason to believe he would suddenly pull a win out of the hat against better competition. He finished fourth.

Come the end of the afternoon, I am one point better off.

The Value Horse Method

If you have been a member of my service for any length of time, or perhaps you've read a few of my articles on my web site, one thing I sincerely hope you recognise is that I bet only when I believe I am getting value for money. Betting for value, and with the odds in your favour, is the only sure way to make a long-term profit from gambling.

Today I want to introduce you to the Value Horse Method which will show you how to uncover the 'value' bet in any race-card.

Have you ever thought how satisfying it would be to have a method of selecting horses that consistently produces profit, month after month? How good would it feel to know that the odds compilers are powerless to protect themselves from your selections? If you want to make that dream become a reality you need to read about the patented "Value Horse Method". This low-risk betting method is not only unique, it is also bullet-proof and market-resistant.

If like me, you are a professional gambler who makes a living from betting on UK horse racing the "Value Horse Method" will become the main weapon in your betting armoury. I first learnt of this method a couple years back, and its teachings are still the cornerstone of my betting strategy. If you are new to betting on UK horse racing the "Value Horse Method" is the best way of consistently finding value bets and profiting by punting on horse races.

If you were offered odds of 100/1 on it snowing next Christmas would you take the bet? If you would, you could class yourself as a "value bettor". You INVEST your money rather than GAMBLE as probability is on your side. If you took the same bet for the next 100 years, in all probability, you would make a healthy profit.

I have made a living from betting for more than 10 years, not from betting on snow at Xmas but by finding "value horses". On an average day I will often find more than five horses that represent excellent value because the odds that are being offered are far higher than they should be, given the probability that the horse will win.

In the book "The Value Horse Method" you will discover exactly how to find these horses and how to make betting on them into a low risk, high reward method of betting.

If you are following my advice on a daily basis, this book will give you a unique insight into how I find horses worthy of putting up as a bet. If you prefer not to rely on professional tipsters, and are much happier when you can pick horses yourself, then this guide will pay for itself many times over.

Discover the "Value Horse Method" at www.reddracing.co.uk/vhm

Tuesday, February 06, 2007

Weather takes it toll on today's racing

Both Market Rasen and Sedgefield jumps meetings were abandoned today as frost had gotten into the ground. I had nothing lined up for Southwell, so nothing to report on.

Monday, February 05, 2007

Monday racing summary

No win bets to report on today, as all three of my proposed bets remained too short in price.

My sole lay bet on the other hand saw me get Sir Douglas successfully beaten. This colt seems to be a true "close but no cigar" horse. Since his only win in a maiden he has come within a few lengths of the winner in several races, without actually getting his own head in front. I'm sure he will win a race at some point, but today I was happy that he would have at least another horse in front of him at the finishing post. He finished second, so still doesn't get to smoke that cigar.

A solitary point to add to the account.

10 Mini-Systems For The Week-End Punter

By Denny Nash

Here are 10 mini horse racing systems that are perfect for the weekend warrior.

1. Look for horses that finished in the money, that is first, second or third at their last four starts in their current campaign.

2. Play any non-placed run if it finished its most recent race within two lengths of the winner.

3. Try a horse whose last run was on the same track as today unless it is shipped from a major track (Belmont, Churchill, Santa Anita) to a minor track (Penn National, Turf Paradise, Mountaineer). This little method will give you a few good horses to check out and regularly comes up with some good winners.

4. If a horse was a favorite or low odds (3-1 or less) in its last race and today is over 10-1 in the same type race or lesser, take a shot! This method can return some big longshots.

5. Don't bet on a horse that won at longshot odds its last race and is running at favoratism or low odds today. If you weren't there for the wedding why go to the funeral? If this is the case, look instead for a horse with a low morning lines (3-1 or less) and is going to post over 3-1 odds.

6. Look for a horse that is a proven a winner at either the track or distance. Or box the top 3 money-earners at either the track or distance. This is a powerful handicapping tool that's simple to use when betting horses.

7. If a horse is a heavy favorite due to a big class drop or favorable distance change, look for another horse that is doing the same exact thing only being ignored at higher odds - this little gem can really make your day at the race track.

8. Never play more than 2 race tracks at a time. It's so tempting with Satellite simulcasting but unless you want to blow through your money in about 30 minutes, don't do it.

9. Have a goal in mind. If you go to the track and say, I'd like to win $50 today, that's a goal. But if you say, I only want to lose $50 that's a goal too. And your mind will make sure you achieve it. So what's better to have as a goal, reasonable winnings or tolerable losses? It's up to you.

10. Look for threes. Anytime a horse is doing something for a third time, that can be a very good thing. 3rd time Lasix, 3rd time blinkers, 3rd race off a layoff, 3rd race in a new class - for whatever reason this is a horse racing miracle number. Keep your eye on it.

Those should have you cashing many tickets and buying many of your buddies a beer or two.

Denny Nash is a full-time horse player and senior handicapper for http://www.bet-won.com

Sunday, February 04, 2007

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

One win bet today, at Fontwell, where I had a punt on Isam Top at 12/1. Unfortunately it came to nothing, and brings a disappointing week backing horses to win to a close.

The loss was clawed back with a successful lay bet against Kings Quay at Musselburgh. Contesting the class 2 Scottish County Hurdle this was easily his stiffest task to date, with his winning form only at class 4, so I was happy to oppose him. He was sent off the 5/2 favourite and found one horse too good on the day.

This week has been disappointing from the perspective of backing horses to win. I managed only one winner, and made a loss of over 2.5 points. However, my lay bets more than made up for this loss, returning a welcome profit a shade over 21 points. This figure was bolstered by my successful 5-point bet against Skippers Brig (2/7 odds-on favourite on Wednesday) which produced a 17.5 point profit - one of my more inspired bets of late.

Worthy of note (in my humble opinion) was my record-breaking month of January which returned a 94 point profit!!

Profit for the week :- Win Bets -2.5pts, Lay Bets 21pts

Saturday, February 03, 2007

Climb every Mountain

Unfortunately none of my back-to-win selections reached their value price, so I didn't have any bets today. For those of you following my Win Bets only, this may have been a frustrating day without any 'action'. But it is easier on the pocket in the long run to remain disciplined, and risk your money only with the promise of a good return.

There was no movement either on the lay bet account, come the end of the afternoon. Mountain has some top class flat form, but today at Sandown he was jumping obstacles in public for the first time. I generally like to take horses on in this situation, hoping they will not settle into the new discipline, and at 5/6 odds-on I was only risking a single point on Mountain. Although he won, it was only by a length, and not the impressive win you might expect from a horse officially rated 35lbs better than his nearest rival. I re-couped the loss by getting Coat Of Honour beaten at Wetherby.

Despite the potential action today, at the end of play the account remains as it did this morning.

Friday, February 02, 2007

Breath-taking Gaspara

With no lay bets today, and only one win bet qualifying as a final selection, this was a relatively quiet day for me. But although I put my money down just the once, I still collected. The 2/5F Classic Fiddle was taking all the money in the novice hurdle at Chepstow. This resulted in all the other prices being pushed out, and value to be had about my selection Gaspara. Champion jockey Tony McCoy pushed the filly out to win by a comfortable 10 lengths at 3/1 and there was plenty of 100/30 to be had on the exchanges.

A tidy profit on the day of over three points.

Timmy Murphy without a paddle

I got February off to a good start yesterday. I had one win bet, and one lay bet. Ever Special didn't live up to his name at Towcester, but at 9/1 and above on the exchanges he was good value all the same.

I managed to get another odds-on hotpot overturned as well. Over The Creek has some good form over hurdles, and also at a higher grade than yesterday's competition. So this was why his price was so short, coupled with the Timmy Murphy/Pipe combination. But, and its a big 'but' in my book, this was his first outing in public over the bigger fences. I think it's wise to be cautious when a horse is making their chasing debut, and at such a short price the lay bet was the shrewdest investment to make. What did he do? He unseated his jockey, and presented me with over 5.5 points profit. Thank you.