I've just finished reading a feature on Matt Watson. If you don't know, Matt is first and foremost a musician by trade. He looked at the probability side of betting, and with a penchant for all things analytical, decided he would make betting pay by re-visiting a well-explored method of staking.
I found it a very absorbing read, and if you want to read the interview in full just click on the link below:
Read the interview with Matt Watson HERE
I'm currently in the doldrums when it comes to making profits from betting. Having barely broken even so far this month, it would be very easy to start "searching" for bets to try and make some quick profit and get back on track. But this ill-discipline is where many punters go wrong. If you have a strategy that has proven profitable over time, then you must have confidence in yourself that your methods work.
Every punter will experience periods where no bets ever seem to go in, and profits seem to ebb away after all your hard work to build them up.
It's in these times of low confidence you need to maintain the attitutude of a professional. It will only be a matter of time before results start to happen again for you, and your profit curve takes an upward turn once again.
I've just read a very sensible article by Flo Jordan posted at HorseRacingArticles.co.uk. He talks about four very basic, but oh-so-critical rules he lives by to maintain success from betting. I recommend you read the article in full, and just follow the link below. A lot of it is "Successful Betting 101" stuff, but we all need a refresher sometimes.
CLICK HERE for "The Four Rules Of Successful Betting"
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I've just finished reading Henry McAnenly's latest article at HorseRacingArticles.co.uk
An interesting piece about getting started as a full-time punter. If you would like to read it, follow the link below.
Equipping Yourself For Success As A Professional Punter CLICK HERE
I regularly get emails asking me how I started out as a professional punter, do I have any tips to getting started, is it easy leaving a job to go full-time on your own, and so on. I have written an article recently on HorseRacingArticles.co.uk which describes a typical day for me. It is not written to show off or boast in any way, rather I hope it will serve as inspiration for any of you who aspire to quitting the rat race and earning your leaving from betting.
If anybody has any comments on the article please feel free to post them here.
A Day In The Life Of A Professional Gambler - CLICK HERE
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I noticed Henry McAnenly has posted a new article at HorseRacingArticles.co.uk
It's called "So you want to be a professional gambler?" and he speaks a great deal of common sense to anyone with aspirations of making a living from betting. And most of it really is just plain ol' common sense, but we all sometimes forget the basics, don't we?
So if you want to read the article just follow this link:
So You Want To Be A Professional Gambler - CLICK HERE
This piece starts with an email I received not too long ago from a new member to my racing advice service. In the mail the new lady member informed me how she had fallen victim to one of the oldest tipster scams around. Unfortunately this type of con is all too commonplace, and in this case made a victim of a lady with little knowledge of betting. What is more concerning, is that for the con-artists to continue using these methods means there must be a never-ending supply of unwary people forming a queue to be exploited.
I write this article hoping I might at least make a few people aware of what to look out for.
The story starts with the typical piece of junk mail which regularly gets posted through our letterbox. It contains incredible promises of huge profits to be gained from following this guy's betting advice. As 'proof' of this guy's expertise there is a page of simply brilliant results, of dozens of horses winning at big prices.
Now admittedly, I myself guarantee a significant income to members of my betting service. However, what I do offer any potential member is the opportunity to try my service first hand, with a free trial. This tipster was looking for the initial month's membership fee up front, sent to an anonymous PO Box.
So, my first piece of advice would be "never send a tipster any money, until you are satisfied of his credentials." Ask for a trial period with his service before you agree to send any money. If he replies with a 'no' then you have not lost anything.
More often than not, you will find no way of getting hold of the tipster to put this question to him -- no email address, no telephone number, only the anonymous PO Box address. This strange wish to remain incommunicado should also tell you a lot about him!
Returning to the story of our friendly neighbourhood tipster and his glossy piece of marketing copy -- after sending off a cheque for a not insignificant amount of money, the lady in question received a 'newsline' telephone number, and it was suggested she call the number every day for the tips. I know what you are probably thinking, but in this case it did not turn out to be a premium rate number that costs goodness only knows how much to call each day. This is an often used trick, and everyone should be very much aware of the high costs involved when calling telephone numbers pre-fixed '090' especially if they have already paid a membership fee.
After following the tips for a week or so, the results were only poor to average, and certainly nowhere near those advertised by the convincing marketing literature.
The next piece of advice may be a cliche, but is still holds true -- "if it seems too good to be true, then it most probably is!"
After about a week, this lady received another letter, telling her that if she wanted to hear about a 'sure-fire winner' in Australia's Melbourne Cup, then she needed to call another number.
When she called she spoke to a man who explained that for her to receive details of the horse, she must first agree to place some money on it, on behalf of the tipster. His lame excuse was that because he had been so successful with his betting in the past, all the bookmakers had closed his accounts, and he now finds it difficult to place bets himself.
The lady was asked to put £200 on for this tipster, and in addition whatever she could afford to wager herself. The horse in question, if we were to be taken in by the hype from this tipster, "categorically could not lose".
She placed her money with her high street bookmaker, and I suspect you are well ahead of me and can guess exactly what happened. In fact, she lost £300 in total.
Two things to bring to your attention here -- firstly, the tipster takes absolutely zero risk in this transaction. If the horse fails to win, then it is just you that loses money. If it happens to win, then you will be forced into mailing the con-man his share of the profits. Secondly, as if you didn't know, there is no such thing as a 'sure thing' in any race. Even more so in such a high profile race as the Melbourne Cup -- its the biggest race of the year in Australian horse racing, and each and every one of the horses will have been entered with a chance of winning.
This kind of scam is even less believable nowadays. What with the betting exchanges, the situation where various bookmakers have closed your accounts is now completely irrelevant. Companies such as Betfair have no concern that you are a winning customer, and they will never shut down your account.
Whenever you are shown a set of 'incredible' results from a tipster, the first thing you should do is ask if these results include ALL the selections given. In other words, try and find out if the tipster trying to hide any losers which would subtract from his results? The previous lesson also applies here: can you easily contact the tipster, and how quickly and positively does he give his response?
If the results are actually complete, then we can analyse them a bit further: note down the total number of bets. This is the total we would have laid out. By way of an example let's say that there are 100 bets -- you would have placed 100 points in bets.
Let's say that when you add up all the claimed winners, the returns add up to 203 points. So, you would have invested 100 points in 100 bets, which returned 203 points to make a profit of 103 points. Outstanding profits indeed!
But now let's take a reality check! 103 points profit on an investment of 100 points gives us a return on investment of 203% This is calculated by dividing the 203 points returned, by the 100 points originally invested.
If you were to ask any professional punter, they will suggest a good return is 120% -- very good is 130% -- and anything over 140% is at best unsustainable, and at worst an outright fabrication. Myself, I give myself a pat on the back when I achieve over 130% ROI for any particular month, and more likely I will only achieve around 120% - 125%
To summarize,
1. Be wary of any service that asks you to call a premium rate number for your selections. You should be aware that you will be spending over £100 every month on telephone calls BEFORE you have even started to make any profit.
2. Do not be fooled by someone who suggests they have a 'dead-cert' winner that cannot lose. Every horse, in every race has some chance of coming first, and so you will never find a horse 100% certain to win.
3. Never be afraid to question a tipsters results -- never take them at face value.
4. Do not send a tipster any of your money until he has proven himself to you over a period of time, or he has been recommended to you personally by a trustworthy person.
5. Be cautious of any tipster who hides behind an anonymous PO Box number, or proves awkward to contact. Does he reply to your questions promptly and credibly?
6. If it seems too good to be true, then it most surely is.
7. Never allow yourself to be persuaded to place a bet on behalf of a tipster. His excuse that he cannot place bets personally does not hold water when we can now take advantage of betting exchanges, and only means he is hoping you will take all the risk in placing his bets.
8. Is the tipsters claimed Return On Investment realistic -- you would be wise to suspect anything over 150%, which you will probably find is an exaggeration.
Found this article today which not only highlights the utter dedication of some of our horse racing jockeys, but also brought to my attention the sheer gruelling routine many of the journeymen jockeys put themselves through:
http://www.horseracingarticles.co.uk/Article/The-Spirit-Of-True-Competition-In-Horse-Racing/33
Considering bookmakers pay differing amounts on each way bets, depending on whether a race is a handicap or a conditions race, it is well worth knowing the difference.
My latest article is a 'beginners guide' to handicap races, and you can read the full story at this link:
http://EzineArticles.com/?id=815071
When I am visiting a race course I am still bewildered by the number of people I meet who still neither bet online, or use the betting exchanges such as Betfair. I would not be surprised if it is still the vast majority of punters who prefer to do business in their local high street bookmakers shop.
I have penned an article with ten compelling reasons to use the betting exchanges. Just follow this link to read the article....
http://www.articlesfactory.com/articles/sports/ten-compelling-reasons-to-open-a-betting-exchange-account.html
Just how important is the Going when considering a bet? Weighing up the chances of a horse winning a particular race is a bit like completing a jigsaw. And I'm not talking about the jigsaw you bought for your 2 year-old last Christmas. I'm talking about one of those 2,000 piece monsters you never seem to be able to finish.
I discuss the subject of the Going in my latest article at www.horseracingarticles.co.uk
Here is the article link:
http://www.horseracingarticles.co.uk/Article/How-Information-On-The-Going-Can-Help-You-Increase-Your-Betting-Profits/25
What is the most important thing you look for when analysing a new system, or a new tipster, and their sets of results?
Do you look for a high strike rate? Perhaps you are looking for a minimum of 30%
Do you look for decent winning prices? Maybe you want an average of at least 3/1
If you don’t already, what you should be doing is COMBINING these two benchmarks to see if you are getting VALUE and hence making a profit.
The only way you will make a profit from betting over the long term is if you consistently back horses at prices HIGHER than their actual chance of winning. In other words, when you get a VALUE price.
Equally, you will make money if you consistently lay bets on horses to lose at prices too LOW when compared to their actual chance of winning. This is how bookmakers have made their money for generations.
For example, if you consistently back horses with a 50% chance of winning, but always back at odds better than evens, you will make a profit. If you back 5/1 (chance) horses at prices of 6/1 then you will make a profit over time.
It’s obvious really, but too many times people get carried away with strike rates, and "never backing odds-on", when both these benchmarks are irrelevant if price does not also come into the equation.
A strike rate of 50% might seem impressive, but if it is achieved with horses at prices less than evens, you will lose money.
If a tipster’s average winning price was 4/5 odds-on, it might on the face of it seem like his tips were very poor value that anyone could pick. But if you learned he had a strike rate of 70% then it’s a different story. He is getting an average price of 4/5 about horses which should be priced at just 3/7 odds-on.
Prices and strike rates are all relative, and intrinsically linked with VALUE
Common misconceptions are that you cannot make money by backing short-priced horses, or that you only make money by selecting horses at higher prices. Both these theories have an element of truth, but need qualifying further for them to be totally true.
Myth #1 : Short-price horses are always poor value
The horse with the shortest price in a race is the favourite, and we all know that if we blindly backed the favourite in every race we would lose money – this is a fact. But the reason we would lose money is because the prices are manipulated by the bookmakers, such that the price of a horse is generally too short compared to its actual chance of winning.
For example, you would expect a horse priced at Even money to win 50% of the time – WRONG!! – in fact even money chances win only around 44% of the time. This is how bookmakers make their profit.
Let me show you how: The even money horse runs 100 races, and we as punters place our bets each time at even money. We will collect from the bookmaker only 44 times, but 56 times the bookmaker will keep our money.
But short-priced horses can still make you a profit – if the price is still too high compared to the chance of the horse winning. For example, a horse at even money is great value if it actually has a 60% chance of winning. You would be getting even money about a horse that should be priced at 4/6
Myth #2 : You can only make a profit by backing higher-priced horses
Of all the horses in a race, the favourite with the shortest price will win the most often – fact. So how can we make money by backing horses further down the market, with better prices. Well, the same theory applies as above – only back horses at a price higher than their actual chance of winning.
If you decide to only back horses at 10/1 but your system produces a strike rate of 8% then you will lose money. If, however, your strike rate is 12% then you will make a profit.
This is because you are backing horses at 10/1 (11.0) when their actual chance of winning is 12% and represented by a price of 8.33. You are getting a price of 11.0 for something that is actually only worth 8.33 – that is why you will profit.
Hopefully you can see that the key to making the profit here, is NOT the 10/1 price alone, nor the 12% strike rate, but getting the two together and achieving VALUE
Higher prices that still do not represent value, will still lead to a loss.
Let me give you an example of how by simply getting a better price about your selections can make the difference between winning and losing money:
Example One:
Zabenz Won 15/8
Briery Fox Lost 7/4
Fire Dragon Lost 6/4
Warlord Won 2/1
Blazing Guns Lost 9/4
Vicario Lost 13/8
Go On Ahead Lost 2/1
Harrowman Lost 15/8
Cloudy Lane Won 11/4
Supreme Prince Lost 13/8
Example Two:
Zabenz Won 2/1
Briery Fox Lost 15/8
Fire Dragon Lost 13/8
Warlord Won 9/4
Blazing Guns Lost 5/2
Vicario Lost 7/4
Go On Ahead Lost 9/4
Harrowman Lost 2/1
Cloudy Lane Won 3/1
Supreme Prince Lost 7/4
What is the difference between the two sets of results above? The same horses ran in the same races, with the same results. Both sets of results have a strike rate of 30%
The difference is in the prices. Each price has been increased by just one notch.
Let’s examine the difference this makes on our return:
In Example One we invest 10 x £100 = £1,000
Our return is £287 + £300 + £375 = £962 so we lose £38
In Example Two we invest the same amount of £1,000
However, our return is now £300 + £325 + £400 = £1,025 so we make a profit of £25
Mathematically, why did we lose money with Example One, yet make a profit with Example Two?
This is why:
In both cases we achieved a strike rate of 30% -- we scored 3 times from 10 attempts -- so our horses had a 30% chance of winning. A 30% chance is represented by a price of 3.33
In Example One the average winning price was the average of 15/8 (2.87), 2/1 (3.00) and 11/4 (3.75) which is 3.21
You can see, we were getting an average price of just 3.21 about horses which should have been priced at 3.33 – the price was too low compared to the actual chance of winning, and that is why we lost money over a series of bets.
In Example Two the average winning price was the average of 2/1 (3.00), 9/4 (3.25) and 3/1 (4.00) which is 3.42
You can see, we were getting an average price of 3.42 about horses which should have been priced at 3.33 – the price was higher when compared to the actual chance of winning, and that is why we made a profit over a series of bets.
How do you get extra value when placing bets?
1) Know what price you want. You wouldn’t go into Tesco’s and ask for a tin of beans, at whatever price the store wanted to charge.
2) If you cannot get the price you want, then do not bet. If you can learn to accept the disappointment of missing the occasional short-priced winner, than you will never have to suffer the pain of a short-priced loser.
3) Bet on the exchanges. Prices on the exchanges are typically 20% higher than those offered by high street bookmakers. Check out sites such as Betfair, Betdaq, and WBX World Bet Exchange.
Follow this link for Betfair www.reddracing.co.uk/betfair
Follow this link for Betdaq www.reddracing.co.uk/betdaq
Follow this link for WBX www.reddracing.co.uk/wbx
4) Post and forget your bets on the exchanges. No more sitting in front of your PC waiting for a price. Post your request for the price YOU want on a betting exchange, and you can walk away knowing that if your price is matched you have gotten a value bet – if it isn’t matched your bet will be cancelled and your money returned. You are in control of the price, not the bookmaker.
In Summary
The key lesson I want people to learn from this article is to gain the discipline of seeking value in any bets they place. If you find no value, then keep your money safe and watch the race. If you can learn to risk your money only when you have the prospect of a satisfactory return, then you will elevate yourself from 98% of punters who continue to lose money.
If you are a member of my service, pay attention to my advised prices, and only bet when you can get these prices. When I reach a 100% strike rate, only then should you bet at any price(!!) – until then you owe it to yourself to get VALUE
Recommended Reading....
The Value Horse Method is a fully comprehensive guide which will show you how to find the value bets in any race-card. Many professional gamblers, myself included, regularly practice the teachings in this guide to produce consistent profits and income. Visit www.reddracing.co.uk/vhm to find out more.
How do you avoid doing your money when betting on National Hunt horse racing? By definition jumps racing brings with it additional risk every time your horse leaves the ground. Making a profit from punting over the sticks is treacherous enough without falling for the bookmakers’ seductive bets which often leave the unwary punters pot-less.
So to help you swerve those rushes of blood to the head I have devised a set of National Hunt punting rules. Sticking to these rules may mean you miss a few winners throughout the season, and although you may not win a fortune by following them, they will probably stop you from losing one. We’ll leave that to the less-savvy punters shall we?
If you have a passion for horse racing, then for pure exhilaration there can be nothing quite as spectacular as seeing thirty or forty horses thunder off across the Melling Road at the start of the Grand National. Or perhaps you marvel at the athletic prowess of the winner of the Cheltenham Gold Cup as they stretch clear of the field up the hill towards the finish line at Prestbury Park?
Traditionally the National Hunt jumps racing season would start around early November and carry on throughout the winter months. The climax of the season is still the Cheltenham Festival in March, with the Grand National in April at Aintree.
Today you will find national hunt meetings pretty much all year round, and although the summer meetings are thinner on the ground and lower key, there still exists the opportunity to profit from horses racing over obstacles.
Here are my Golden Rules for betting on National Hunt horse racing:
Rule #1
When the rains come in the deep mid-winter, and the going turns proper heavy, look out for horses who have already demonstrated form in these kind of conditions. In reality, not many horses actually enjoy galloping through mud. If you can uncover a horse which relishes testing ground – even if the price suggests they are something of an outsider, and with recent form figures reading like a row of duck eggs – you may well be sitting on a good value bet.
Rule #2
This rule is about horses who are taking a step up to race in a better class of race and at one of the more imposing tracks. Where you have a number of steeplechasers, who are already performing well in quality races at the top tracks, it is easy to over-estimate the chances of a ‘live’ outsider who jumps well and won last time out, albeit in a lower grade race at a provincial track. In these situations, it is often better to lump on the fancied horses along with everyone else. Admittedly this will often result in poor value prices at the top of the market, and the profitable move may well be to keep your money safe, and sit these races out.
Rule #3
As an addendum to the last Rule, this one is so simple, but none-the-less true. When you are trying to pick winners at Cheltenham, and especially at the festival in March, it pays dividends to give extra merit to those runners who have already shown winning form around this unique race-course. If a horse has managed to win here, they should be credited with a real chance to triumph again.
Rule #4
A long-standing myth that two-and-a-half-mile chasers possess the best characteristics to win the Grand National is utter rubbish. Why? Well, for starters the Grand National is staged over more than FOUR miles. Find a horse who can stay forever, and who jumps for fun, and you will have a horse capable of winning the greatest steeple-chase in the world.
Rule #5
Let’s imagine you have narrowed down your selections in a jumps race to just two horses. One is piloted by a top-20 jumps jockey, and the other is ridden by a less-able jockey who gets to claim a weight allowance over his rivals. In this situation my advice would be to choose the professional every time. In Flat races, a weight advantage of a few pounds can make all the difference, and trainers will often make clever use of talented apprentice riders to gain a competitive edge. Over the sticks however, it will often pay to side with the proven skills of the experienced horseman, even if it means sacrificing a little weight to your rivals. After all, they are a winning jockey for a reason.
Rule #6
A horse who turns in a fine performance at a flat, easy or ‘fast’ track may not necessarily produce the same performance at a more testing race-course. To me this seems one of the most obvious statements when studying National Hunt form, but it is one that punters ignore time and again, getting their fingers burnt in the process. If a horse has jotted up an impressive sequence of wins at easy tracks such as Musselburgh, Fakenham, Hereford, Taunton, Southwell, and Aintree’s Mildmay course, they should not necessarily be considered a ‘steering job’ when they contest a race at a course with a more testing profile. Of particular note should be courses with an uphill finish such as Cheltenham, Sandown Park, Hexham, Carlisle, and the daddy of finishes at Towcester.
Rule #7
There exists an old maxim which says “never bet odds-on in a novice chase”. This rule needs modifying slightly. If such a short price is based solely upon a horse’s hurdling form, then in the long-run you would be wise to steer clear. When a horse is tackling the bigger obstacles in public for the first time, it is not the time to lump on with all your ‘hard-earned’ without the prospect of at least doubling your money. However, if the horse has already shown some decent ability over fences (boasting a win or perhaps finishing close up in a previous novice chase) then its chances of winning as an odds-on shot are probably no better or worse than in any other kind of race.
Rule #8
One of the biggest betting minefields in jumps racing is when top-flight horses are on the comeback trail after injury. This is precisely when to treat horses with caution, but all too often punters will jump right in and throw this caution, and their money, to the wind. It is very difficult for a trainer to bring a top horse back into a high-grade contest at the same level of form as before the horse suffered an injury. Yet just because a horse is seen once again on a race-track, many punters will expect to see this kind of form repeated first time out. Bookmakers will take advantage of this high-expectation and keep prices short – based purely upon the animal’s reputation and historic form. But the low prices are not a true reflection of the horse’s actual chance of winning on the day. In these instances it may well be more prudent to watch and learn, to gauge the horse’s level of fitness. Alternatively, the shrewd punter will take advantage of punters plunging on the false favourite, and seek value in one of the other runners.
Rule #9
During the course of the jumps season there are several two mile handicap hurdles with bountiful pots of prize money. Finding the winner in these races is incredibly difficult, as they tend to be over-subscribed and doggedly competitive down to the money and prestige on offer. Similar to the big-field summer handicaps on the Flat, it seems horses often land these races in turn. Consequently, the cautious punter will reduce his stakes on these races to a minimum. A more fruitful avenue to take would be to concentrate upon the longer handicap hurdle races run over three miles plus. These stamina-sapping contests are more likely to be won by distance specialists who have already proved they can stay the longer trip. Winning stayers have a habit of cropping up in these distance handicaps time and again.
Rule #10
Finally, the clue is in the name, and this sport of kings is called jumps racing. If you can spot the true equine athletes who bend their back and jump seemingly for fun, tackling obstacles with relish, then you will unearth a plentiful seam of winners over time. Equally, beware of the self-styled ‘experts’ who declare “he may not be a fluent hurdler now, but he is shaping to be a fine chaser in the future”. In reality, the chances are he will be just as poor, if not worse, over the larger, less forgiving fences.
I hope that by following some or all of these rules, you can begin to think a little more outside the box, distance yourself from the madding crowd, and take some money back off those bookies during the otherwise gloomy winter months.
There are currently four all-weather tracks in the UK, with a further course in development in Essex. This year there will be £5million in prize money on offer for the all-weather season, so racing promises to be the most competitive and exciting yet. In this article I will take you around the venues, and reveal my key tips and advice for making a killing when betting on horse racing on the sand.
All-weather racing often receives the same response from horse racing fans as Marmite gets from lovers of toast – you either love it, or you hate it!
Admittedly, the opportunity to watch low-grade horses running on the sand at a February meeting at Southwell may not have the same allure as the Gold Cup on Ladies Day at Ascot in the height of summer. But that is no reason for all-weather snobbery. In fact, the UK all-weather racing scene is going from strength to strength. And this is good news, hopefully, for punters who endeavour to grind out a profit betting on races run “on the beach”.
The four venues in the UK that currently stage all-weather flat racing are Lingfield Park in Surrey, Wolverhampton in the Midlands, Kempton Park near Heathrow, and Southwell in Nottinghamshire. However, this year that list will be boosted to five because a new track is opening at Great Leighs in Essex.
Forget the forecast
The all-weather horse racing championship kicks into gear just as the traditional flat racing turf season comes to a close in the autumn. The all-weather season gets under way in November and culminates in a grand finale at Lingfield Park in March with the running of the Winter Derby. With around £5 million in prize money, jockeys’ and trainers’ championships up for grabs, and opportunities for horses of varying levels of ability, this season has been the most competitive ever staged in the UK.
So which jockeys, horses and trainers should we be following on the all-weather, and how can racing at one artificial track differ compared with that at another? Hopefully, if you follow this abbreviated guide you will soon be on course to make some serious dosh from the sand!
It may boast a catch-all monicker, but all-weather racing actually differs slightly at each of the four venues which currently stage the sport in the UK. This is a factor well worth being aware of before you decide to have a bet at a particular track. With the exception of Kempton, the courses are left-handed. Racing at Wolverhampton and Southwell takes place around lozenge-shaped tracks, while Lingfield’s configuration is more triangular. I will expand upon the significance of this a bit further on.
One fundamental point you need to get to grips with early on is how the actual racing surface differs from one course to another. Two types of sand are currently used. All-weather races held at both Wolverhampton and Lingfield are now run on a material called Polytrack, which is a kind of rubberised sand which minimises the impact of ‘kickback’ – the effect the horses produce as they thunder over a loose-topped sandy surface. Polytrack’s consistent nature means that most races can be run at a good pace, so when having a bet at Lingfield or Wolverhampton it’s worth remembering the importance of backing a horse which will see out the trip.
With that in mind, it would be less of a concern for a horse with good form over 12 furlongs at these two courses to get stepped down to race, say, over 10 furlongs. But it may be more of a problem for a horse which has been doing well over, say, 6 furlongs if its next challenge was to run over a mile or further.
Horses for courses
However, a different racing material known as Fibresand is employed at Southwell. Generally speaking, this produces a more demanding surface compared with Polytrack. If all-weather racing at Wolverhampton and Lingfield is similar to running on the equivalent of fast going on turf, then Southwell’s Fibresand is closer to a turf equivalent of racing on soft or even heavy ground.
Take note of this factor when a horse which has performed well at Wolverhampton or Lingfield is then asked to contest a race at Southwell – even if the distance is the same. Before having a bet in this instance, you should be happy the horse will see out the trip on this different surface.
Lingfield’s sharp contours and relatively short finishing straight mean it tends to favour horses who can race up with the pace (or ‘handily’) rather than long-striding gallopers who need time to wind up their run. The layout of the track means that horses drawn in double figures tend to be at a disadvantage for races run up to a mile. Low-drawn horses who can race handily should enjoy a definite advantage when it comes to sprint races over the minimum trip of 5 furlongs.
It’s a similar story at Wolverhampton. Once again, horses drawn low in 5 and 6-furlong races usually have an advantage. It’s difficult for horses to swing wide into the straight without compromising their chances. But for race distances over a mile or more the impact of the draw diminishes rapidly.
We’ve already heard that the racing surface at Southwell is different to the other tracks and this means the kickback is far more pronounced here than elsewhere. The next time you go to the beach, get someone to throw handfuls of sand in your face and see how much you like it! For that reason, Southwell tends to benefit horses who can race ‘prominently’ or who are described as ‘strong travellers’ because they will avoid as much kickback as possible.
Sticking to these guidelines for all-weather betting should help you take a little more cash from the bookies’ satchels than the average punter. Happy punting!
Bookmakers have been laying bets on horses to lose ever since horse racing began. As punters having a bet on a horse, we are actually involved with laying horses every time we have a bet. We are simply on the other end of the transaction. To back a horse, there will always be somebody who must to lay the bet. Yet so many people think they are unfamiliar with laying horses, so they shy away from it entirely.
This article will not show you how to make a profit by laying horses. It will not even explain exactly how you lay a bet on a horse to lose. My intention when writing this article is merely to demonstrate that laying bets on a betting exchange is not some kind of ‘black art’ and there is nothing ‘smoke and mirrors’ about it.
Traditionally it has always been the bookmaker who has taken on the role of laying bets. This allocation of responsibilities is something we are all used to, and comfortable with. But let’s examine the mechanics of placing a bet:
In this example, let’s assume we are going to back a horse called General Account at a price of 3/1 and for a stake of £10
We approach a bookmaker and this is what we are offering: we are prepared to risk our stake of £10 on the chance of this horse General Account winning the race. The price we are happy to accept is 3/1 If the horse loses, we will give the bookmaker our stake money. However, if the horse wins we shall take our stake back, and furthermore, we demand that the bookmaker gives us three times our stake money as profit.
In placing this bet, we are of the opinion that this horse will win – it stands to reason, if we didn’t think it would win, we would not risk our stake money.
I make no apologies if this explanation of placing a bet is perfectly obvious to everybody. Like I said earlier, we are all totally familiar with this typical transaction.
Now remember, in order for a bet to be struck, the bookmaker must also agree to the terms on the table. To lay the bet at the price of 3/1, the bookmaker is happy to risk three times our stake. To take our bet, the bookmaker is of the opinion that General Account will NOT win the race. If he thought the horse was going to win, he would not accept our bet, or at least he certainly would not wish to risk so much money, and would not agree to a bet at 3/1
Hopefully you can see that the only difference between a punter and a bookmaker is their opinion of who will win the race – we think General Account will win, and the bookmaker disagrees, and we are BOTH prepared to put our money where our mouth is.
In effect, where a punter is betting that a horse will win, a bookmaker is simply betting that the horse will NOT win. It is no more complicated than that. Nothing devious, and nothing untoward.
Since 1999 and the introduction of Betfair as the first mainstream betting exchange, we all have the opportunity to play the role of bookmaker. Betting exchanges are simply a forum where you can find another punter who has the opposite opinion to you, and match his/her bet.
If you turn out to have the better judgement, then you will win. If your ‘opposite number’ on the betting exchange turns out to be right, then you will lose, and you will have to pay the man/woman their dues. It is no more complex than that.
At the end of the day, laying horses to lose may still not suit your betting temperament. But hopefully this article will have given you the confidence to find out more. Despite what you may read, making money by laying horses is no easier than trying to profit by backing horses. In fact there is absolutely no difference in terms of risk.
As a punter, if you are happy to put some money behind your opinion that a horse will win, there is absolutely no reason you shouldn’t also give yourself the opportunity to profit, if you feel a certain horse will not win a given race.
To learn more about the mechanics and ‘how to’ of placing bets on the exchanges, Betfair has a very good Help section and if you are new to betting exchanges I recommend you pay a visit.
Everyone knows that gambling is a business of risk. Professional gamblers will successfully manage their risks and make a profit, whilst 98% of punters who consistently lose money, also consistently fail to manage risk effectively.
This is the concluding part to this series of articles, where I have explored the key reasons most punters lose money, in a vain attempt to make money through betting.
We have seen the importance of always getting a value price when you bet. If you fail to strike bets which offer a satisfactory return on your investment, then ultimately you will lose money.
We have learned why you should have a sensible approach to staking. Never put too much of your betting bank at risk in one bet, in an attempt to get rich quick.
I pressed home the dangers of chasing your losses. Experienced gamblers appreciate that you will more often than not lose more bets than you win. Losing is part of gambling – accept this fact and you will not be tempted to compound your losses by trying to re-coup them by deviating from your staking plan.
In the most recent article, we looked at discipline, and why it is critical to treat your betting like a proper business if you want to achieve business-like results.
In this final section, I want to conclude by further exploring the topic of risk management, and developing a profitable portfolio of betting strategies.
Ask any number of professional gamblers and the vast majority will tell you they do not rely solely on one betting strategy alone. They spread their risk by employing several methods, and constantly reviewing the performance of each method. In effect, this is much like an investor managing a portfolio of stocks, shares, and investments. This echoes back to a previous article where I likened betting for profit to running a business.
The disadvantage of relying on just one betting method or system or tipster, is that if the strategy is not currently returning a profit, then you have no income. It's the classic 'eggs in a basket' scenario!
If you look at the Stock Market, the value of individual shares goes up and down on a daily basis. Whereas, over time, the value of the market as a whole has historically risen.
So it makes sense to have a number of betting strategies running concurrently. If during one particular month Tipster A is losing money, then probably System B is returning a profit. Your aim should be to manage your portfolio such that you generate a net income every month.
Developing a portfolio raises a number of questions:
1) Which strategies should I employ?
2) How many betting systems/tipsters should I have in my portfolio?
3) When should I relegate a system from my portfolio?
Developing your betting portfolio
To answer the first question – the obvious response is to follow profitable systems. But this is much easier said than done. Where do you find profitable methods, systems, and tipsters?
It will take you time to develop a good portfolio, but a good place to start is with your own methods. If you can read form, and you understand the concept of value, then you can develop your own methods of making good selections.
Whilst you are developing your own methods, you can employ the skills of one or more tipsters, and/or buy some ready-made systems. Before rushing out to buy a copy of the Racing Post and looking in the classified advertisements for tipsters, I recommend you search on Google under ‘tipster review’ or ‘horse racing tipster review’ or ‘betting tipster review’. Adverts will always say their tipster or system is the best, and makes amazing profits. But this is your money you are investing, and you owe it to yourself to do some home-work.
Look for a forum or discussion board where tipsters and systems are reviewed objectively by customers or people who have actually used the service.
How big should your portfolio be?
This is a question only you can answer really. The more strategies you have, the more your risk is spread across a number of income streams. You could also potentially earn more money. However, the more methods you employ the harder your portfolio will be to manage, and the more of your time will be taken up.
You will need to strike a balance where you are comfortable with the time-input and the return from the portfolio.
A sensible portfolio may have five or six strategies, with another two under review at any one time.
Managing your portfolio
In a previous chapter I suggested ‘paper-trading’ a method for at least two months to test its profitability. This means you should follow a method or tipster or system for two months to see if theoretically you would have made a profit. Once you are happy with the performance of a particular method, you can proceed to award it a place in your portfolio, and start trading with actual cash.
If the strategy doesn’t make the grade, then ‘file’ it for future reference.
You will have heard the old saying “If it ain’t broke don’t try to fix it” so you should not be too hasty to discard a particular betting method if it returns a losing month.
However, there is also the teaching “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If a system has earned a place in your portfolio by performing well for two months, then it makes sense to allow it two poor months before even considering it should be relegated. That said, if you are not happy with a system and it is losing money, then get rid of it!
Summary
Develop a portfolio of betting strategies to spread your risk and maintain a regular net income. Use a combination of your own personal methods, purchased systems, and subscription tipsters. Constantly review your profitability to highlight any under-performing strategies.
About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk
Author: Max Redd http://www.reddracing.co.uk
If you want to make ‘serious’ money from betting on horse racing, then you have to take the whole business of betting seriously. Treat betting as a mere ‘distraction’ and your entertainment will almost certainly come at a cost.
In Part One of this series of articles on sensible money management, I said that much of the reason people will lose money through betting is because of bad habits. How do you overcome bad habits? Discipline, of course!
If you were running your own business, you would treat it as a business and not a hobby. You would get to your desk on time each morning. As well as doing the things you enjoy about your business, you would attend to all the mundane tasks necessary for things to run smoothly. You would file your tax returns on time. You would have a business plan and you would set budgets for attainable growth. You would aim to make a profit by earning more in revenue than you spend in costs. You would not continue to sell a product at a loss. Etc., etc.
To run a business takes a lot of self-discipline, and so it is with making a long-term profit from betting. It is not as easy as some people would have you believe. If this were true, then tens of thousands more people would be placing bets from their laptop by a pool in Spain, and there would be no more bookmakers in your local High Street!
If you are prepared to discipline yourself, then you are far more likely to elevate yourself from the 98% of punters who continually lose money through gambling.
The very first task you should undertake is to set up a separate account for your betting funds. It is essential you keep your betting activities separate from your other financial affairs, otherwise you will find it very difficult to see if you are making a profit, and how much return you are getting on your investment.
No-one needs to be reminded that you should only bet with money you can afford to lose, but the more money you can set aside for betting purposes, the more likely you are to see any worthwhile gains. You should view your betting bank as working capital, and an investment you have made in your own business.
Do not be tempted to place a bet using your credit card, or the debit card on your current account.
Anyone following my betting advisory service will know that I am always preaching about getting value when you bet. My philosophy makes perfect sense to me, but then I’ve been trying to drum the principle into peoples’ heads for years! But going back to the analogy of running a business, you wouldn’t pay £10 for a product from a wholesaler if you couldn’t sell it for any more than an average of £5. You may make the occasional sale at £15 or even £20 but if the average return is only £5 then in the long run you will lose money.
The same principle applies when backing a horse – don’t accept a price of 5/1 when the real chance of the horse winning should be represented by a price of 10/1
If you fancy a horse to win, but you cannot get the price you want, then have the discipline to let the horse run without your money on its back. Horse racing has been around for more than a century -- there will be other opportunities. You should not be betting purely for the thrill of risking money, and only putting your investment at risk with the potential of a good return.
Take the time to review how your strategy is working (or not). How much profit are you making? Which systems or tipsters are making you the most? Without continual review, you will not be able to maximise your returns (nor indeed limit your losses).
Your betting bank should be large enough to absorb any losing runs you will encounter from time to time. This is akin to managing your cash-flow of your business. Having a “large bank” does not necessarily mean having a lot of money sunk into your betting account. Moreover, it means you should be staking only a small proportion of your bank on each bet.
The same £1,000 bank fund could be divided into a large bank of 1,000 points, ie £1 per bet. Or it could be divided into a relatively small bank of just 10 points, ie £100 per bet.
As your bank grows, then the same small percentage of your total funds will represent a higher monetary value.
Do not be tempted to increase your stake on any particular bet. Set your proportional stakes plan and stick to it. Yes, review your stakes from time to time, but never alter your stakes on a whim, on hearsay of a strong bet, or for any other irrational reason. Be wary of getting greedy.
This is a good time to warn you of the perils of betting whilst under the influence. Never bet after having a drink. The reasons should not need further explanation.
If your method of selection is losing you money, then stop betting.
Allow me to expand upon the last statement. If you have a losing day, do not be quick to toss your system in the bin or cancel your subscription to your favourite tipster! Everybody has losing days, indeed everyone has losing weeks and bad months. However, after a reasonable period of time you will be fairly certain whether or not a particular source of bets is returning worthwhile profits.
Discipline will play a big part in managing your portfolio of systems. On the one hand you should not be too hasty to give up on a profitable system, if it suffers a downturn in performance. At the same time, you should be prepared to relegate a system from your portfolio if it is consistently losing money.
Always ‘paper-trade’ a system or tipster over a significant period of time (I would suggest at least two months) before actually committing any of your betting funds. If you are then confident enough to risk your own money on a system, then equally you should be prepared to endure two losing months before dropping it.
If you do find yourself starting to lose money at any point, never be tempted to chase your losses. Do not increase your stakes in an effort to re-coup what you have lost, as you may well find yourself with even greater, unnecessary losses.
To summarise, treat your betting activities in a business-like fashion. Develop a plan and have the discipline to stick to it. Below is a list of Do’s and Don’t’s. For those who need help to adopt a disciplined approach, stick by these rules and you will not go too far wrong!
DO’s and DON’T’s
DO have a separate account for your betting funds
DO try to get value in the price of your bets
DO keep records
DO take the time to analyse your betting
DO be wary risking a high percentage of your bank
DO operate with a bank of suitable size
DO change or drop a losing system
Do NOT bet when you are drunk
Do NOT get too greedy
Do NOT bet without paying consideration to the price
Do NOT bet if you cannot get the price YOU want
Do NOT try and get rich quick
Do NOT chase your losses
About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk
You may well have heard the term dutching in the context of betting on horse racing. But do you know what it means? In this article I will attempt to explain the principles of dutching a horse race. I will also introduce you to an incredible piece of software that can help you make regular profits by dutching horse races.
We are all familiar with the idea of backing a horse to win a race, in order to secure a profit. Dutching is concerned with betting on more than one horse in a single race, and with the same aim, to make a profit.
More often than not, a typical punter will single out a particular horse in a race, as his choice to win. Let’s take an example of a 10-runner race. In a Win-Only market, there are only ten possible outcomes to this event: that one from each of the 10 runners will win the race.
No matter what anyone tells you, every horse that lines up at the beginning of a race has a chance of winning. The chance may only be a fraction of one per cent, but it is still a chance and a possibility. Don’t believe that to be true? Watch the prices on Betfair for every race for a whole year, and I promise you, you will not see a horse matched at 1000-1 before the race starts. Why not? Because to get matched at 1000-1 someone must be thinking the horse doesn’t even have one chance in a thousand of winning, and is prepared to lay your bet. There is always the possibility, no matter how remote, of any horse winning, provided each horse is allowed to run a true race.
If a horse was ever matched at 1000-1 before the start, you can be sure of an investigation into possible foul-play.
Going back to our horse in the 10-runner race – let’s say he is priced the 2-1 favourite. If we back this horse, we can expect only two results for our stake: either our horse will win, and we will collect our stake and a 2-point profit, or the horse will not win, and we will lose our stake.
So, on only one occasion from 10 possible results, will we make a profit – only when our horse wins.
What if we could improve our chances of winning?
What if we bet on two horses instead of just the one? Then there would be two occasions which would see us collecting, rather than just the one. This is the principle behind dutching a horse race.
A punter can select a number of horses to back in a race, and split his stake according to the price of each horse, such that which ever of his selections wins he will make the same profit.
You will find many calculators on the market, or even for free, which will tell you how to split your stake according to the price of each of your selections. Just type dutching calculator into a Google search.
Notice I didn’t say guaranteed profit. The risk with dutching is that one of the horses you have not backed, ends up winning the race. Your stake is spread across a number of runners, but if none of these horses wins, you will lose all of your stake. If you take dutching to the extreme and back every horse in a race, in a 100% book such as you will generally find on the betting exchanges, you will end up with no profit. The returns on your winning stake will cover the amounts placed on all the other selections, but with nothing over as a profit. When betting with a bookmaker, he will construct his book such that if you bet on all the horses you will actually lose money, and he will profit. This is his business after all!
To make a profit from dutching you must back the horses you feel could possibly win, and eliminate those that in your opinion have next to no chance of winning. Hopefully you will have again spotted the risk here: that is you eliminate a horse from your equations and WHAM! It pops up and wins in spite of your strenuous calculations!
Essentially, dutching a race is similar to laying horses to lose. If you back every horse in a race bar one, you are effectively opposing that horse and laying it to lose. Backing all but two, and you are laying those two runners, and so on….
Having said earlier that if you back every horse on a betting exchange you will break even at best, this is not 100% true. The betting exchanges, by their very nature, regularly offer up the opportunity to make a profit by backing every horse in a race. The key lies in backing every horse at the right price, by taking advantage of the fluctuating markets on the exchanges.
Let’s look at a very simple example – if we could back both horses in a 2-runner race at 11/10 then no matter which horse wins, we will pick up a profit. However, the catch here is that at any given point in time, these two horses will not BOTH be on offer at 11/10
But imagine this – at 12pm Horse A is priced at 11/10 and Horse B is at 10/11 to make a balanced book. We back Horse A.
An hour later the prices have changed due to consistent betting on Horse A. In fact the prices are now reversed and Horse A is the favourite at 10/11 and Horse B has drifted out to 11/10 Not too difficult to imagine is it? In fact similar situations occur every day. We now back Horse B at 11/10 and we have backed both runners at 11/10 Guaranteed profit – Hallelujah!
I have only touched on the subject of dutching in this article, but there are regular profits to be made on the betting exchanges, but only if you have a mind like a computer and a mouse-finger quicker than Clint Eastwood’s trigger-finger! Accurate calculations, quick decisions, and split-second reflexes are all necessary for success. Fortunately there are betting ‘bots’ (specially developed software) that can make these decisions and execute them for you instantly and automatically. The best of these is undoubtedly Bet Angel
If you pay a visit to their web site you can watch their training videos and learn far more about dutching with real life examples, than I can ever put into words in this article.
Summary – Dutching a horse race concerns backing more than one horse in a race, with the aim of making an equal profit whichever of your selections should win. The skill lies in successfully discounting horses as having little chance of winning, and leaving them un-backed. Dutching the betting markets for profit is made simple with the aid of a purpose-developed software tool such as Bet Angel
This is the third instalment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.
Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.
I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.
Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F
But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!
What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.
Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!
You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!
Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.
If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!
Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”
But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. As you might expect, we will be betting on the red.
We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1
I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.
One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.
I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.
There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.
If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.
For the best part of four years punters in the UK have had a secret weapon giving them that vital 'edge' to make a profit from betting on horse racing. Yet for the most part, hardly anyone has taken advantage. What am I talking about? Sectional timing.
In a nutshell, the technology exists to show the precise position and speed of a horse at any point in a given race. We can accurately depict the very nature of every race as it unfolds. The article below from the Guardian explains in more detail:
British punters can expect a revolution in the analysis of racing, following the news that a hi-tech radio-tracking system for horses will be introduced to the country's racetracks by the end of 2003.
The new technology, which can pinpoint a runner's position to within 20cm, four times a second, will also allow races to be broadcast in a "virtual" format, both over the internet and to the latest 3G mobile phones.
The radio-tracking system has been developed by Generics Group, a technology company based in Cambridge, and will be marketed as a joint venture with TurfTrax which already produces detailed going reports for the major tracks. The so-called Super 12 courses - including Ascot, Cheltenham, Aintree, Newmarket and Epsom - are likely to be the first to benefit from the new technology.
When it is introduced, the radio-tracking system will fill what is currently a void in the study of racing form.
While the form book offers winning distances, brief comments in running, a race-time and many other details, there is little empirical analysis of the way in which a race unfolds.
The Generics system will offer a three-dimensional view of a race, with details of precisely where every runner was at every stage, and exactly how fast it was going at the time.
It will also do so in a relatively simple way, using light weight radio transponders inserted into saddlebags, sending signals to small, mobile masts around the course.
"This technology fits nicely into horseracing," Andy Rhodes, who runs Generics' wireless innovation group, said yesterday. "It's low-cost and easily deployed, you can turn up, set it up, cover the races, take it down and move on.
"All the receivers are wireless and run off batteries, and can also easily work around obstacles, from the hill in the middle of the track at Warwick, to temporary grandstands."
The amount of information that the Generics technology could yield is immense. How fast was the early pace? How much ground did Unlucky Lad lose when he was snatched up two out? And how much ground and momentum did he concede by drifting across to the stands' rail shortly afterwards?
Questions such as these, and many more, will soon have a precise answer with a firm scientific basis.
"The difference when you compare this with sectional timing, like that at Newmarket, is that it works easily at every course, and you get readings every quarter of a second, not once a furlong," Rhodes says.
"You also get a picture of what's happening across the course, not just along the length of it. If a horse appears to drop back between two furlong markers, has it pulled up a little, or just moved across the course? You can also measure the true distance run by a horse, rather than just the linear distance, and with that you can also measure its speed at every point in the race."
The Generics data will clearly be highly valuable, which is why the two companies have already ploughed £1m into the project. It is the exploitation of this in-race data - via sale to broadcasters, racing publications and individual punters - which the companies will seek to exploit first, although applications on the net and via mobile phones will also be explored.
"In a sense," Rhodes says, "there is very little data, just an 'x' and a 'y' reading and a time. This means that the information will lend itself to transmissions over the net and on mobiles, making racing much more interactive."
An online database would allow form students to watch a race in a high-quality, "virtual" format a dozen times from every possible angle, while live webcasts using the technology could turn punters into television directors. If you can't pick out your horse, click a button, and the computer will helpfully paint it yellow. You could do the same to keep tabs on the favourite, or watch a jockey's-eye view of the closing stages.
Some may see such ideas as punting for the video-game generation, but the powers of race-analysis that should soon be at punters' fingertips are something that every clever backer will appreciate.
As the technology improves, it could also offer invaluable assistance to stewards' enquiries and investigations into alleged non-triers. Rhodes says: "You can use [the data] to do almost anything. It will allow punters to use more intelligence in their betting and, hopefully, will mean they are more successful."
And so the question remains - with this relatively simple technology ready and available, and with the additional form data it can obviously provide, why is it this 'revolution' has kept such a low profile?
To discover how you could add the 'secret weapon' of sectional timing data to your form study, go to www.reddracing.co.uk/turftrax
As the popularity of the betting exchanges grows, so more and more people are looking to profit from horse racing by laying horses to lose. But what is the best strategy? On the face of it, one might think that simply betting that the outsider will lose is a quick way to make easy money. In reality, the best horse to bet against is the race favourite.
Betting that the outsider at 20/1 will lose will be fine to start with, and doubtless you will soon develop a winning run of profits. However, sooner rather than later that 33/1 shot with ‘absolutely no chance’ will come home in front, and you may well have laid him at a price of 52.00 (for example) on Betfair. BOOM! There goes all your hard-earned winnings, and more!
Generally a horse will be the favourite because it has the weight of the market’s money behind it, which forces the price down. Simple economics. There will be a point however, where the horse’s price is too low compared to it’s actual chance of winning. Beyond this ‘true’ price is where the layers will start to make a profit.
So we go ahead with this strategy, and we proceed to lay every favourite, right? Wrong.
Horse racing favourites are often priced too low. This is how bookmakers have made their profit for generations. But they are not priced too low every time – sometimes a favourite is the most likely horse to win a race for very good reason.
If we took the simplified approach of laying every favourite, after a while betting on the exchanges we would remain around the break even point, because the exchange markets are a very efficient barometer of probability. However, after paying commission on our winnings, we would watch our account slowly draining away like water down a plug-hole. Not good.
So how do we know which favourites are true favourites, and which are weak or vulnerable?
One method is to analyse the positive aspects of a horse’s form. It will not surprise you to learn that more favourites win when they have fewer question marks against them. This is not rocket science, but taking the time to separate strong contenders from weak favourites will give you the ‘edge’ to make that all-important profit.
Below is a list of form criteria you can apply to the market leader in any given race:
1. Horse and Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today's race.
2. Horse and Track: Must have proven ability on either today's track or one with similar characteristics.
3. Horse and Recent Form: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.
4. Horse and Race Distance: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today's distance.
5. Horse and Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.
6. Horse and Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today's ground.
7. Trainer and Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.
8. Trainer and Recent Record: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days.
9. Jockey and Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.
Rating a favourite as ‘weak’ or otherwise is entirely subjective, but you may determine (for example) that a horse with 3 or more question marks or negatives over their form would be considered a horse worth opposing.
As always the question of price will come into the equation. A horse with several boxes left to ‘tick’ in the list above may be a favourite in a weak race at 5/1. This may be a fair price, and you may not want to get involved in laying him to lose.
On the other hand, when a 2yo filly steps hoof onto the track for the first time, and is offered at odds-on simply because she is ridden by Frankie Dettori on behalf of the Godolphin training empire, then you may want to consider taking her on.
In summary: race favourites are often a profitable source of potential Lay Bets, as they are often ‘over-bet’ and offered at prices too low compared to their actual chance of winning. Take the time to analyse key aspects of the horse’s form and judge whether they are a ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ favourite. If you decide they are vulnerable to defeat and the price is short enough, then you have identified a good lay bet.
If you are interested in laying horses to lose then I recommend you get yourself a copy of Henry McAnenly's best-selling eBook on the subject Betting Against Horses For Profit
