Monday, January 05, 2009

Monday horse racing summary

Wolverhampton, 2:10
With the two National Hunt cards wiped out by the artic weather today, we are afforded entertainment by the all-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. The card at Wolves kicks off with a class 5 handicap over 6f for fillies only. This type of race is tends to produce surprises. It is low level fare, for fillies who can be unreliable at the best of times, and over a fairly short trip. In sprint races, any disadvantage from the draw, or a slow start, or getting boxed in, means the jockey has less time to regain the advantage. And so I am going to oppose the forecast favourite TRIPLE AXEL whose price seems a little short and offers better value to lay in my opinion.
Lay to lose - Triple Axel Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:15
Another low level handicap, again contested over 6f. FANTASY FIGHTER is priced at 2/1 which suggests he has a one-in-three chance of winning. However, I think there are five other horses with claims on this race, and so I rate the chance of Fantasy Fighter more like one-in-six and so he should be priced around 5/1 In which case, I prefer to lay him to lose as his price is too short compared to his actual chance of winning.
Lay to lose - Fantasy Fighter Result: Lost

Wolverhampton, 2:40
This time a class 6 selling race run over a mile distance. Golden Bishop is the forecast favourite, but also likely to be near the top of the betting is REDARSENE The horse has returned just one win in eleven starts, and the fact that he is entered in such a low level race suggests a lack of confidence. Although he has won in handicap company that was six months ago so I don't see why he should be such a short price, and I shall oppose him today.
Lay to lose - Redarsene Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:45
This race is a class 5 handicap over 6f. Hellbender is the forecast favourite but my preference is for ROMANTIC QUEEN She comes here off the back of a win over the distance, and looks fairly treated so she should go close.
Back to win - Romantic Queen Result: unplaced

Wolverhampton, 3:40
This is a class 5 maiden over 7f. Rebel City is the likely favourite but I am siding with DUKE OF NORMANDY who showed improvement on his last run, and should strip fitter today at a value price.
Back to win - Duke Of Normandy Result: Meeting abandoned

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