Friday horse racing summary

Lingfield, 12:30
It looks like there may be jumps racing from Kelso today, but unfortunately I still find nothing I fancy backing. On the all-weather surface at Lingfield the first race is a 5f handicap. NICKEL SILVER has strong claims to the race, having won recently at Wolverhampton. However, Lingfield is a different surface and he has never raced here before, and I think that the price is much too short to back the horse, in a sprint handicap. So the value is to oppose him.
Lay to lose - Nickel Silver Result: Won

Kelso, 12:40
Not surprisingly the going is heavy after a period of snow and frost. This race is a novice hurdle over 2m. SIGNALMAN is the forecast favourite and certainly has the form to win the race. However, he is giving away 7lbs to all his rivals, and that may prove too much in the testing ground, so I am going to oppose him.
Lay to lose - Signalman Result: Meeting abandoned

Kelso, 1:40
This is a class 2 handicap hurdle over 2m. ISSAQUAH will be sent off the short priced favourite having won five of his seven starts. However, today he steps up in class, and is carrying an extra 13lbs since his last run. That is an awful lot of extra weight to carry in heavy going, and he will need to answer some big questions to win this afternoon.
Lay to lose - Issaquah Result: Meeting abandoned

Wolverhampton, 2:35
This is a lowly class 6 seller over 1m 1f on the all-weather. AHLAWY has won only three times in thirty runs, and has not got his nose in front since the summer of 2007, yet he is favourite for this race. Admittedly he is dropped in grade to compete today, but I don't see this as a reason he should be favourite, and in my opinion the value lies in laying bets against him to lose.
Lay to lose - Ahlawy Result: Won

Kelso, 2:40
This is a class 4 novice hurdle over 2m 6f. MOSCOW CATCH will be the favourite at around even money. He is stepping up in trip, and in the testing clay ground here at Kelso, and with the stiff uphill finish, this will require real staying qualities. He is too short to back, and I am going to lay bets against him.
Lay to lose - Moscow Catch Result: Meeting abandoned

Thursday horse racing summary

Southwell, 1:20
Its been six days now since we had a jumps meeting because of the cold snap. Two more relatively low grade meetings on the all weather today, and I haven't been able to identify any opportunities to back a horse to win. But low grade racing often throws up good opportunities to lay horses to lose. This first race under the microscope is a class 5 maiden race over 1m 3f. Wing Diva is the forecast favourite but this morning MUSASHI is top of the market. He is still a maiden in his second season and after 8 races, and I don't see any reason why today will be his day.
Lay to lose - Musashi Result: Lost

Southwell, 1:50
This is a class 6 sprint handicap over 5f. HALAAK is the favourite for the race, but I am going to oppose him. He is strong in the market based on his comfortable win two runs ago. But that was a race for 2 year olds only and today he is mixing it with older and stronger horses. He also steps back to the shortest trip, and is unproven over this distance.
Lay to lose - Halaak Result: Won

Great Leighs, 1:55
This is another sprint handicap, this time a class 5 affair. SILVANUS is a short priced favourite considering he has yet to win in handicap company. His only win to date was a maiden race, so he has only beaten horses that had never won themselves. He has good claims on this race, but the price is too short compared to his realistic chances of winning, so in my opinion the value lies in opposing him.
Lay to lose - Silvanus Result: Lost

Southwell, 3:20
Another handicap race to finish, this time over 7f. Old faithful WHITBARROW lines up this afternoon and is favourite this morning, yet hasn't put his head in front for a dozen races and more than a year. He has not won over 7f.
Lay to lose - Whitbarrow Result: Lost

Tuesday horse racing summary

Southwell, 1:10
This is a class 6 handicap race over a mile. RUN FREE comes to the track off of two wins in quick succession. However, he has been penalised another 5lbs since the latest run, and also steps up in trip today. I think he is too short and I shall be opposing him.
Lay to lose - Run Free Result: Lost

Monday horse racing summary

Wolverhampton, 2:10
With the two National Hunt cards wiped out by the artic weather today, we are afforded entertainment by the all-weather meetings at Lingfield and Wolverhampton. The card at Wolves kicks off with a class 5 handicap over 6f for fillies only. This type of race is tends to produce surprises. It is low level fare, for fillies who can be unreliable at the best of times, and over a fairly short trip. In sprint races, any disadvantage from the draw, or a slow start, or getting boxed in, means the jockey has less time to regain the advantage. And so I am going to oppose the forecast favourite TRIPLE AXEL whose price seems a little short and offers better value to lay in my opinion.
Lay to lose - Triple Axel Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:15
Another low level handicap, again contested over 6f. FANTASY FIGHTER is priced at 2/1 which suggests he has a one-in-three chance of winning. However, I think there are five other horses with claims on this race, and so I rate the chance of Fantasy Fighter more like one-in-six and so he should be priced around 5/1 In which case, I prefer to lay him to lose as his price is too short compared to his actual chance of winning.
Lay to lose - Fantasy Fighter Result: Lost

Wolverhampton, 2:40
This time a class 6 selling race run over a mile distance. Golden Bishop is the forecast favourite, but also likely to be near the top of the betting is REDARSENE The horse has returned just one win in eleven starts, and the fact that he is entered in such a low level race suggests a lack of confidence. Although he has won in handicap company that was six months ago so I don't see why he should be such a short price, and I shall oppose him today.
Lay to lose - Redarsene Result: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield, 2:45
This race is a class 5 handicap over 6f. Hellbender is the forecast favourite but my preference is for ROMANTIC QUEEN She comes here off the back of a win over the distance, and looks fairly treated so she should go close.
Back to win - Romantic Queen Result: unplaced

Wolverhampton, 3:40
This is a class 5 maiden over 7f. Rebel City is the likely favourite but I am siding with DUKE OF NORMANDY who showed improvement on his last run, and should strip fitter today at a value price.
Back to win - Duke Of Normandy Result: Meeting abandoned

Bahia draws a Blanca

Today's Analysis:
Taunton, 1:10
This is a class 3 novice hurdle for mares only and raced over 2m 3f, and today the going at Taunton is officially soft. Over Sixty will be the red hot favourite for this race, but at a prohibitively short price. I am going to play the odds in our favour and go for BAHIA BLANCA at a double figure price. She competed in a similar race earlier this month, and should have benefited from the run.
Verdict:
Back Bahaia Blanca at 12/1 (13.00) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 2:50
A class 4 handicap chase over 2m 7f. The forecast favourite is Iris's Prince but my preference is for the forecast second favourite ENROBLIM TROP He comes here off the back of a win under similar going at Folkestone at the beginning of the month.
Verdict:
Back Enroblim Trop at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Taunton, 3:25
Bumper races are typically unreliable as betting heats, with little form history to draw upon. If you do decide to play, often it is useful to see how the market is shaping up before making any final decisions. Pepe Simo from the Paul Nicholls yard will probably be odds on favourite this afternoon, which is ridiculously short with so many unknowns in the field. Instead, I shall go for PIPE BANNER for a bit of value.
Verdict:
Back Pipe Banner at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd

Monday horse racing summary

Musselburgh, 12:10
This is a class 5 maiden hurdle run over 2m 4f and the going at Musselburgh today is described as good to firm. Broadway Star is the likely favourite but my preference is for FORTYSECOND STREET He has had a run in public to get used to the race day atmosphere, and he will have come on for that run, and Howard Johnson has a good record at this track.
Verdict:
Back Fortysecond Street at 5/2 (3.50) Result: WON at 11/4

Newbury, 12:30
A class 3 novice chase, and the going today at Newbury is described as good to soft. PLANET OF SOUND has won at this level over hurdles, and returned a solid performance in his chasing debut at Sandown last month.
Verdict:
Back Planet Of Sound at 2/1 (3.00) Result: WON at 13/8F

Musselburgh, 12:45
Snowy is likely to be sent off the favourite for this class 4 handicap chase over 3m. However, I think it may be worth siding with OH YAH DANCER from the Nicky Richards yard. He is well treated based on his hurdles form, and if he can take to fences he will be a contender at a decent price.
Verdict:
Back Oh Yah Dancer at 13/2 (7.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 1:35
Despite only five runners this chase promises to be very competitive. Gone To Lunch will probably start as favourite, but I am going to look elsewhere in the field for the winner. Trigger The Light is tempting but I am going for MR POINTMENT He finished runner up in a class 1 chase recently, so I'm hoping he can take this class 2 race this afternoon.
Verdict:
Back Mr Pointment at 7/2 (4.50) Result: 2nd at 3/1

Newbury, 2:10
This is a class 2 hurdle race over 2m. Dave's Dream will probably be the market choice but I am plumping for CHINA GOLD saddled by Alan King. He shaped well in a class 3 maiden race last time out, and although today's race represents a step up in class, Alan King knows how to ready his horses.
Verdict:
Back China Gold at 4/1 (5.00) Result: 2nd at 9/4

Newbury, 2:45
This is a Grade 1 novice hurdle over 2m 5f and looks to be between Diamond Harry and MASSASOIT The morning prices show the market is heavily in favour of Diamond Harry, and it looks like he will go off at odds on. I am going to take the resultant value as the price on Massasoit is pushed out.
Verdict:
Back Massasoit at 5/2 (3.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:15
This is a class 3 novices handicap chase over 2m 6f. The two that take my eye are Calusa Caldera and NORTH ISLAND and I shall nominate the latter because after winning his chasing debut he is well treated compared to his hurdle form.
Verdict:
Back North Island 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced 9/2

Musselburgh, 3:30
This is a class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m. Kyber from the Jim Goldie yard will likely start as favourite, but I am looking further down the field at a horse called MASAFI saddled by Howard Johnson. He is dropping back in class today, and I think a race such as this is within his compass.
Verdict:
Back Masafi at 9/2 (5.50) Result: unplaced

Newbury, 3:50
Silver Blondin is the forecast favourite for the bumper, but my preference is for CHAPOLIMOSS ridden by Robert Thornton. The price seems good value to me for a horse from a yard that knows how to produce horses for National Hunt Flat races.
Verdict:
Back Chapolimoss at 7/1 (8.00) Result: unplaced

Sunday 21st December

Carlisle, 12:50 Skippers Brig lines up for a class 3 novice chase over 2m 4f in heavy going. He won his chasing debut at this course last month, in similar conditions, so deserves his place at the top of the market. Verdict: Back at 9/4 (3.25) Result: Won at 15/8

Carlisle, 1:25 This is a handicap chase over 3m. Nelliedonethat is the likely favourite. He has yet to win over fences, and has been put up 3lbs since his latest run. I think the heavy going and the extra weight will prove too much for him. Verdict: Lay at 11/4 (3.75) Result: 2nd at 9/4JF

Carlisle, 1:55 Another handicap chase, this time over 3m 2f. Royal Mackintosh will probably be sent off the favourite. So far his winning form is a couple of class 4 chases in novice company, so a win today would represent a career best performance. I would be tempted to lay him to lose at a short enough price. Verdict: Lay at 6/4 (2.50) Result: Won at 13/8F

Carlisle, 2:25 This is another handicap chase, and this time for mares only. Rosie All Over will be a short priced favourite and considering she has not won in this level of company before, over hurdles nor fences, I think the value would be to oppose her. Verdict: Lay at evens (2.00) Result: Lost at 6/4F

Carlisle, 3:00 Deuteronomy contests this handicap chase over 2m 4f. He has the form in the book to win this kind of race so is worth a punt. Verdict: Back at 9/2 (5.50) Result: Lost at 7/2

Carlisle, 3:30 To conclude an afternoon of handicap chases, yet another handicap chase! Nicozetto won last time out, and can handle heavy going. I am a little concerned about the sharp trip, as he has been contesting races up at 3m of late. But he could prove good value. Verdict: Back at 6/1 (7.00) Result: Lost at 11/2

Account Bets:
Carlisle 3:00, Deuteronomy: back to win at 9/2 (5.50) or better
Carlisle 3:30, Nicozetto: back to win at 6/1 (7.00) or better

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I picked the right Charlie

Another solid performance today, and just over 2 points profit to show for my efforts. My first selection didn't reach my advised price, so goes down as a 'no bet'. This was followed by a losing bet, but happily I finished the day with a winner at Southwell. You would be skint following Charles Parnell blindly, but he was back down to a winning mark today in a class 5 handicap. Today's race was particularly weak, and was never going to take a special horse to win, and at better than 3/1 I thought his price was representing good value. He followed up his recent second with a win today, and ensured I returned a profit for the day.

Profit so far this month: 10 points
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I'm definitely not Bleu

A good start to a new month, with both the back-to-win account, and the lay-to-lose account returning a profit. This morning I suggested three horses we should back, and two of them duly went on to win. First up was Don't Be Bleu at Folkestone. Making his chasing debut, he had three wins at this level over hurdles, so I felt a price of 2/1 was ample if he could only translate his hurdling ability to fences. It was a good choice as he came home the winner. This was followed up by SingleB winning at Wolverhampton.

I proposed just the one lay bet today, namely the race favourite Dayia in the 3:40 race. The horse lost, and presented me with another 4 points profit.

Total profit so far this month: 8 points
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