Carthys Cross, and so he should be!

Not the kind of day I would choose to bow out on at the end of the month, but apart from a lack of profitability, today did produce a quite remarkable race. In the first race at Towcester four horses lined up to contest the beginners chase. Three of the runners had a realistic chance of winning, whilst Chain started the 28/1 outsider making up the numbers.

The three main protagonists were well clear of Chain, when first one tipped up over a fence to leave leave two runners out in front. Then a second horse fell, leaving my selection Carthy's Cross with a 20 length lead over the no-hoper. It seemed all Carthy's Cross had to do was get over the last three fences to take the race. Well, he didn't fall, but instead two out he refused to jump at all! Chain came past to take the lead, and although Carthy's Cross gave a hint he might get back on top, we saw the most unlikely of winners. That race will definitely feature on Question Of Sport at some point.

Getting back to my results -- I had four bets, but with no success as three selections were runners-up and the other failed to place. I had three lay bets, and although two of these were successful, Dig Deep won his race at 4/1 and I ended up a point down.

At the end of an eventful day, my reward was a 5 point loss.

Weekly results

The end of another month is here, and I shall be posting another good set of results in my newsletter next week-end. But unfortunately this past week will not have played any positive part in those profitable figures. As I mentioned in last week's results post, I anticipate a few indifferent weeks whilst we make the transition from the Jumps season to the Flat. Still, it's not much fun if you are a new subscriber, or checking out my service.

Over the past seven days the Back-To-Win selections have just about managed to break even, whilst the three Lay bets I had, returned a net loss of a fraction over 4 points. So nothing at all special to boast about, and indeed a loss of 3 points overall. No excuses, but I shall be doing my best to re-coup these losses and get my head back in front again this week.

Profit for the week:- Win Bets 1pt, Lay Bets -4pts loss

Thursday racing summary

Worthwhile prices were not widely available today, and only two bets qualified as final selections. Krakatau came home in front in the last race of the evening at Southwell, available at 17/2 on WBX before being backed in to a starting price of 11/2

My lay bet was Madaarek who lined up for the class 5 handicap over 10 furlongs at Beverley this afternoon. With two outings under his belt last season, and a 'blow-out' already this year, he was still a maiden nonetheless, and on his handicap debut he was carrying top weight. Stepping up in trip as well, I thought the price of 8/11 was ridiculously short for a horse in a handicap race with no winning form, yet carrying the biggest penalty, and I layed him for 3 points. The market got its money back this time, but we layers did not have to give much back at those prices.

So I gave back some of my profits from Krakatau, but realised a net gain of more than 5 points on the day.

Wednesday racing summary

I was very disappointed to put up such a poor show today. Although my four selections were at healthy prices up to 9/1 only the shortest one at 9/4 even got in the frame.

My only winning horse was sadly also my only lay bet of the day. Malyana won her maiden last autumn, but had not been seen on a track since then. Making her handicap debut today at Epsom she was giving weight away to all but three of her rivals. I thought this would be a stiff task for her first run of the season. She had the run of the race, but looked like being overhauled in the last half-furlong. To her credit she dug deep and just prevailed, taking with her over 2 points of my profits.

So I drew a complete blank today, and gave back over 6 points profit. I shall be looking to tomorrow to iron out the blip in proceedings.

CashMaster software

I don’t know how you feel about so-called betting systems – some people swear by them, and yet some people swear AT them! Personally, I find a good system can be an excellent foundation to a betting strategy, if used as an initial filter to arrive at a number of potential selections. But I can count the number of systems I would use as a stand-alone method on the fingers of one hand.

If you are in a hurry you can click here to check out a remarkable software program called Cash-Master.

So it is very seldom you will ever hear me getting excited about horse racing software systems. The reason is this – because 99% of them will never make you any money!

That said, there is one software program that I am truly glad to have discovered – and that is Cash-Master. Many of you will have heard of Cash-Master as it is one of the best-selling programs available. Quite possibly you have a copy already. But if you haven’t, I promise you this unique software program is unlike anything you have seen or tried before. Just like the testimonials I was reading on their website, I too found myself making good profits within a few short days.

Almost every software program I have ever tested simply manipulates form data to produce a rating for each horse in a race. Different programs use different data, from different sources, and they use the data in different ways to produce different sets of rankings. You are then left to place your money on the horse with the highest rating.

Employ any one of these systems over a period of time, and chances are you will slowly but steadily lose money. If you are really lucky you will break even.

The reason for this is that 99% of systems ignore the crucial factor for long-term profits – consistently achieving a value price. If you fail to bet horses at prices too big compared to their actual chance of winning, then over time you will lose money. Period.

So you can appreciate that when I was asked to review Cash-Master on a trial I was just as sceptical as usual. As it turns out, for once I was wrong! When you see Cash-Master in action for yourself, you will immediately see how it is so much more than a just selection system. I call it my ‘profits-booster’.

With the Cash Master System not only do you get a powerful software program, but also a comprehensive operating manual with solid money-management advice and risk-reduction strategies. You get access to their proprietary Mega Buster selection system, plus many other free bonuses, and a 100% Money Back guarantee if you are not happy – a ‘No Lose’ situation.

So how exactly does it all work?

All you will be required to do is visit specific free internet sites for information and then enter those details into the program. Cash-Master will then tell you exactly what to do. The software runs in any Microsoft Windows operating system. There is NOT a lot of tedious data entry involved. Everything is clearly explained in the step-by-step instruction manual.

Suffice to say that I am more than happy to recommend Cash-Master. When used in conjunction with a solid selection system, this software will prove an invaluable tool to ensure you maximise your profits.

Make sure you get straight over to the Cash-Master website, order yourself a copy (there is a no-quibble money-back guarantee), and begin ‘paper trading’ with this software today.

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Tuesday racing summary

Following on from yesterday, the account is 'treading water' at the moment. Too many losers negating the returns from too few winners. I had seven qualifying win bets today - a lot more than usual - but still ended up being a point behind at the end of the day. Just two winners returned at 5/4 and 11/4 on the exchanges were not enough to regain the losses on the other five selections.

I can take a little comfort, because the back-to-win account is over 30 points in front this month; and days like today, although frustrating, do little damage to our overall profit.

No lay bets today, so a loss of around 1 point overall.

Bid For Gold only secures bronze

A small loss on the account today as three losers wiped out my profit from one winner. These included Bid For Gold who could only manage third place. Classic Role came home in front, and could have been backed at 9/4 during the course of the morning on Betfair. But this still left me the best part of a point down on the day.

The price on my only lay bet never fell as low as the 13/8 I was looking for. Mystic Dancer was contesting his third maiden race, only this time he was taking on a trip some 3 furlongs further than he had raced before. I was hoping the trainer/jockey combination of Stoute and Dettori would have punters piling on and artificially depressing the price, but that didn't happen. I got the outcome right though, as the colt finished fourth more than 6 lengths down on the winner.

Weekend racing summary and weekly results

Apologies to those who have missed my posts for a couple of days. I've been away for a family week-end, and had the time to get my daily message out from my lap-top, but not a lot of spare time I'm afraid. Spent a fantastic day at Wrest Park in Bedfordshire yesterday. A stately home where they held a St Georges Day pageant in the grounds -- scores of knights-in-armour, a dragon, and St George of course! Kids had a whale of a time, and I would recommend it for next year.

Ahead of my post this evening I wanted to bring everything up-to-speed with an overview of the weekend and the week's results.

As normal, it's proving difficult to find many value opportunities at lengthy prices in this changeover period between the Jumps season and the Flat. With little form to go on it is a challenge to come up with solid bets in the flat races, and I have been scratching around for value in the jumps races. Consequently the selections have been poor, more often than not the favourites in their races, and showing only moderate returns when we find a winner.

On Friday evening I did pinpoint Union Jack Jackson who won at 11/2. Across Friday, Saturday and Sunday the Win Bets returned a profit of around 4 points overall.

I suggested 5 horses to oppose, and in contrast to the month's results so far, three of them went and won. These were only single-point bets and no higher than 13/8 so no real damage dome at all.

The Back-To-Win bets continue in good form, with a profit returned of over 15 points. I anticipate an up-and-down period for a week or three, as we get through to the Flat Season proper. On the other hand, I shall be looking for many opportunities to lay horses, with the form being uncertain in the early parts of the season. This past week the Lay account has turned in a solid 9 points.

Profit for the week :- Win Bets 15.5pts, Lay Bets 9.5pts

Betting On Horse Racing : Sensible Money Management (part 4)

Author: Max Redd http://www.reddracing.co.uk

If you want to make ‘serious’ money from betting on horse racing, then you have to take the whole business of betting seriously. Treat betting as a mere ‘distraction’ and your entertainment will almost certainly come at a cost.

In Part One of this series of articles on sensible money management, I said that much of the reason people will lose money through betting is because of bad habits. How do you overcome bad habits? Discipline, of course!

If you were running your own business, you would treat it as a business and not a hobby. You would get to your desk on time each morning. As well as doing the things you enjoy about your business, you would attend to all the mundane tasks necessary for things to run smoothly. You would file your tax returns on time. You would have a business plan and you would set budgets for attainable growth. You would aim to make a profit by earning more in revenue than you spend in costs. You would not continue to sell a product at a loss. Etc., etc.

To run a business takes a lot of self-discipline, and so it is with making a long-term profit from betting. It is not as easy as some people would have you believe. If this were true, then tens of thousands more people would be placing bets from their laptop by a pool in Spain, and there would be no more bookmakers in your local High Street!

If you are prepared to discipline yourself, then you are far more likely to elevate yourself from the 98% of punters who continually lose money through gambling.

The very first task you should undertake is to set up a separate account for your betting funds. It is essential you keep your betting activities separate from your other financial affairs, otherwise you will find it very difficult to see if you are making a profit, and how much return you are getting on your investment.

No-one needs to be reminded that you should only bet with money you can afford to lose, but the more money you can set aside for betting purposes, the more likely you are to see any worthwhile gains. You should view your betting bank as working capital, and an investment you have made in your own business.

Do not be tempted to place a bet using your credit card, or the debit card on your current account.

Anyone following my betting advisory service will know that I am always preaching about getting value when you bet. My philosophy makes perfect sense to me, but then I’ve been trying to drum the principle into peoples’ heads for years! But going back to the analogy of running a business, you wouldn’t pay £10 for a product from a wholesaler if you couldn’t sell it for any more than an average of £5. You may make the occasional sale at £15 or even £20 but if the average return is only £5 then in the long run you will lose money.

The same principle applies when backing a horse – don’t accept a price of 5/1 when the real chance of the horse winning should be represented by a price of 10/1

If you fancy a horse to win, but you cannot get the price you want, then have the discipline to let the horse run without your money on its back. Horse racing has been around for more than a century -- there will be other opportunities. You should not be betting purely for the thrill of risking money, and only putting your investment at risk with the potential of a good return.

Take the time to review how your strategy is working (or not). How much profit are you making? Which systems or tipsters are making you the most? Without continual review, you will not be able to maximise your returns (nor indeed limit your losses).

Your betting bank should be large enough to absorb any losing runs you will encounter from time to time. This is akin to managing your cash-flow of your business. Having a “large bank” does not necessarily mean having a lot of money sunk into your betting account. Moreover, it means you should be staking only a small proportion of your bank on each bet.

The same £1,000 bank fund could be divided into a large bank of 1,000 points, ie £1 per bet. Or it could be divided into a relatively small bank of just 10 points, ie £100 per bet.

As your bank grows, then the same small percentage of your total funds will represent a higher monetary value.

Do not be tempted to increase your stake on any particular bet. Set your proportional stakes plan and stick to it. Yes, review your stakes from time to time, but never alter your stakes on a whim, on hearsay of a strong bet, or for any other irrational reason. Be wary of getting greedy.

This is a good time to warn you of the perils of betting whilst under the influence. Never bet after having a drink. The reasons should not need further explanation.

If your method of selection is losing you money, then stop betting.

Allow me to expand upon the last statement. If you have a losing day, do not be quick to toss your system in the bin or cancel your subscription to your favourite tipster! Everybody has losing days, indeed everyone has losing weeks and bad months. However, after a reasonable period of time you will be fairly certain whether or not a particular source of bets is returning worthwhile profits.

Discipline will play a big part in managing your portfolio of systems. On the one hand you should not be too hasty to give up on a profitable system, if it suffers a downturn in performance. At the same time, you should be prepared to relegate a system from your portfolio if it is consistently losing money.

Always ‘paper-trade’ a system or tipster over a significant period of time (I would suggest at least two months) before actually committing any of your betting funds. If you are then confident enough to risk your own money on a system, then equally you should be prepared to endure two losing months before dropping it.

If you do find yourself starting to lose money at any point, never be tempted to chase your losses. Do not increase your stakes in an effort to re-coup what you have lost, as you may well find yourself with even greater, unnecessary losses.

To summarise, treat your betting activities in a business-like fashion. Develop a plan and have the discipline to stick to it. Below is a list of Do’s and Don’t’s. For those who need help to adopt a disciplined approach, stick by these rules and you will not go too far wrong!

DO’s and DON’T’s

DO have a separate account for your betting funds
DO try to get value in the price of your bets
DO keep records
DO take the time to analyse your betting
DO be wary risking a high percentage of your bank
DO operate with a bank of suitable size
DO change or drop a losing system

Do NOT bet when you are drunk
Do NOT get too greedy
Do NOT bet without paying consideration to the price
Do NOT bet if you cannot get the price YOU want
Do NOT try and get rich quick
Do NOT chase your losses

About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

Thursday racing summary

A gratifying day, and four successful bets from four. I had three win bets, each of which did exactly what is says on the tin -- namely "win". Lead On, Hattan, and Abragante, at 10/11 and 2/1 and 6/1 respectively with better prices advised and available on the exchanges

I proposed two bets to lay, with Valery Borzov losing, and Adagio not meeting my price requirements. As Adagio won his race, it underlines (in my opinion) the importance of sticking to my guideline prices. Every punter owes it to themselves to get value when they bet, and at today's prices this horse was too much of a risk to warrant a lay bet. The horse was making his seasonal re-appearance after a good performance in the Dewhurst Stakes last autumn. However, in that race the market only rated him a 25/1 chance. Today's race was also to be over a slightly longer distance. For these reasons I would not be backing the horse, and at a price around the even money mark I was prepared to lay bets. In the event the horse produced a good performance to win, and I was proven right to be offering backers only a short price about him.

Good to see the win bets producing such handsome returns, and all told I pocketed more than 12 points profit.