Tuesday horse racing summary

I took the wooden spoon home with me today, as all three of my bets cost me money. Neither of my two win bets were successful, and I had to pay out on my lay bet at York.

Septimus was contesting the stayers 2m Lonsdale Cup at York. He has plenty of form at this level to suggest he could win, but the big question mark was over the trip. Today's distance of 2 miles was 4f further than he had ever raced before, and he was up against several proven stayers. I felt he was worth opposing at the 5/4 level or below, and I layed bets for 3 points. The horse proved he could stay, and has a winning spirit, as he held off challenges to win by a length.

So not the best of days as the account took a hit of almost 6 points.

Monday horse racing summary

Well, we didn't see any action on the Win Bet account today, as none of my advised prices were reached. But I was on top form with my lay bets as I saw the two red hot favourites I suggested to oppose, get duly beaten.

Dr Faustus was eventually sent off as the 8/15F odds-on favourite for the opening race at Leicester this afternoon. He was stepping up in class, after finishing only 5th and five lengths behind the winner on his debut. I'm certain the Stoute/Ryan Moore trainer/jockey combination had something to do with the punters piling on, but I find it incredible that people were prepared to accept odds of almost two-to-one on about a horse that has never won, only run once, and contesting a more difficult race today! I happily put my money up to be matched, and duly collected when the horse found one of the 'unknowns' too good and he finished second.

My other lay bet was Handset, also at Leicester, and an even money favourite which also lost this afternoon. 3 points profit in total.

Sunday horse racing summary and weekly results

I added a couple of points profit to the account overall, thanks largely to a heavy bet against Bee Eater at Pontefract this afternoon. My sole win bet did not win.

I had two lay bets, and got off to a poor start when Record Breaker won its race at Pontefract at 3/1 But my focus this afternoon was on Bee Eater an hour later. She was running in the Listed fillies stakes, which represented a significant step up from class 3 handicap company. I felt she would find the task beyond her today, and I was surprised to see her price fall as low as 5/4 on the exchanges. I managed to get matched at 6/4 which was the eventual starting price, and layed bets for 6 points. On the day she found two horses get away from her, and she was never going to peg them back.

Two useful points to add to the bottom line.

The Win Bet account put in a very lacklustre performance this week, with only two winners, and a loss of nearly three points. On the other hand, I have done very well with the Lay Bets, returning a profit of just over 9 points to give an overall profit.

Profit for the week: Win Bets 3pts loss, Lay Bets 9pts

Royal Rocked

A poor set of results from my win bets resulted in a loss overall of 2 points today. All four of my win bets lost, with only Brassini even making the frame.

I was successful however, in laying the favourite for the class 2 handicap at Newmarket, Royal Rock. Following two recent wins, he was stepping up in class today, and shouldering a whopping 11lbs extra since his last outing. I felt the task of winning today was beyond him and I went against him for 2 points. When Royal Rock failed to make an impression on the race these were 2 welcome points profit, halving the loss for the day.

Want To Bet?

If you like having long-term punts on the football (Premiership Winners, most goals, Man Utd to finish above Chelsea, etc) then pay a visit to the sports betting blog 'Want To Bet' at http://wanttobet.blogspot.com/2007/08/special-long-term-bets.html

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Silver Suitor takes silver

I lost one point overall today. My two win bets both lost, but I managed to reduce this deficit with a successful lay bet at Newbury.

Silver Suitor was returning to the track after a recent win, but today he was stepping up in class, up in trip, and carrying an extra 5lbs. So it was asking a lot for him to win today, and I suggested anything under 11/4 would be short enough to make laying him an attractive prospect. If you had posted this price on Betfair this morning you would have gotten matched during the course of the afternoon. We collected as he found one horse too good for him, and one horse is all we needed.

Thursday horse racing summary

I couldn't resist backing Regency Red today at Beverley. With a name like 'Red' its a horse perhaps I should make an offer for! Most of his winning form has been on the all-weather, but he has won at this level in a handicap off the same mark as today, so a win was well within his compass. A disappointing step up to class 5 in a recent race would account for the faltering market confidence shown today, and prices up to 4/1 were available on the betting exchanges. My two other win bets were unsuccessful, leaving me with 2 points profit.

I suggested three horses to oppose today, and two of these became finalised bets. I suffered a loss when the first selection Ravarino won its race at Berverley. But I got most of this back less than 30 minutes later, after I successfully layed Hazlenut for 4 points.

Come the end of the afternoon and overall the account had neither moved forward nor back.

Blessed as Divine Spirit falters

A good day today, with two successful bets from three, and a return of almost 6 points profit. I had two win bets, and Bonjour Allure was a winner at a useful 5/2 with prices upwards of 7/2 available on the exchanges.

Divine Spirit was coming into a 5f sprint handicap at Beverley this afternoon off of two successive wins, and consequently he found himself in the position of race favourite. However, today he was stepping up in class and carrying a 9lb penalty for his latest success. I was convinced the handicapper had finally caught up with the horse, and went against him for 3 points. He trailed in last.

Tuesday horse racing summary

The account stayed as it was this morning, as the single point lost on my one win bet this afternoon was recouped with a successful lay bet this evening. In something of a repeat of yesterday, good value opportunities did not show themselves today. Two of my five recommendations to win were withdrawn, and because of several significant non-runners Tom Sayers was sent off odds-on instead of the juicy 4/1 I was looking for. Prince Des Neiges came in second at Brighton to add to the frustration.

I opposed Just Oscar at Musselburgh this evening. He was dropping back in class this evening, which is I guess the main reason he was always one of the shortest priced horses for the race throughout the day on the betting exchanges. However, he was still a maiden after 11 runs and off the same mark as last time I could not see his fortune changing. He ended up unplaced and was never threatening the whole course of the race.

Not so Superduper

The markets didn't move the way I expected today, and as a result, from my three back-to-win selections and three lay-to-lose selections only one became a final bet. The discipline of accepting only value prices paid off in our favour though, and meant we avoided three losing bets.

Superduper was the morning favourite for a 6f maiden race at Windsor this evening. The filly tried to make all in a similar race also at Windsor last time out, and I saw no reason to believe she would be successful this time. So I could not see why she was the lowest priced horse and I was happy to lay her to lose. The price on the filly drifted out to 10/3 at the off but 11/4 and below was freely available this morning. She finished 3 lengths shy of the winner again, and presented me with my only point of the day. But a point profit is better than no profit at all.

Sunday horse racing summary and weekly results

I was able to pinpoint three winners today! However, the bad news is that two of them were on the lay bet account which cost me nearly 5 points profit. I backed Finsbury at Leicester and he justified favouritism in the seller at 3/1

I blew 5 points on the lay bet account in about 10 minutes, when first Fisher Bridge won at Leicester, then Mountain Cat finished ahead of his rivals at Wolverhampton. 6/4 about a horse in a 13-runner handicap is always going to be short, when theoretically all horses should have the same chance of winning with their allotted weights. But furthermore, Mountain Cat had never won in this class and was running off a mark 5lbs higher than his best winning mark. To win today would take a career best performance. So you can see why I thought 6/4 was a particularly skinny price, and why I layed him for 2 points? However, he justified the price and took more than 3 points from me in the process.

The Win Bet account stormed back into the black for the week with a successful day yesterday, returning a solid 4 points profit for the last seven days. Although still running a loss for the month so far, the Lay Bets demonstrated a real return to form with a creditable 11 points profit this week.

Profit for the week: Win Bets 4 pts, Lay Bets 11 pts

Benandonner's gonnandunnit

Two well-priced value winners contributed to more than 11 points profit for my win bets this afternoon. I placed five win bets, and both High Curragh and Benandonner scored nicely, with both available at prices up to 7/1 and more on the betting exchanges.

A welcome return from the win bets was tempered a little with a loss of almost 2 points from my lay bets. Although I was successful by opposing Longspur at Newmarket, I was wrong about Strategic Mount who won at Ascot. The colt won a class 2 handicap similar to this last year at Goodwood. However, he has struggled since to carry the extra weight to victory and I did not think today would be the day he returned to the winners enclosure. Frankie Dettori played a big part in making sure the horse kept his nose in front today, again demonstrating why he is an elite jockey ranked amongst the very best in the world. However, by opposing him today he cost me the lion's share of 3 points as I layed the colt for 2 points at a fraction under 6/4

Overall this afternoon, we were able to put a fat and juicy round 10 points profit back in the satchel.

Friday racing summary

I suffered a 3 point loss to the account overall today. My four win bet selections all failed to score, and I only managed to gain a point back by successfully laying Snakes Head at Lingfield.

Snakes Head was still a maiden after seven starts, and today she was attempting a distance 2 furlongs further than she had ever raced. Punters were happy to take 2/1 on the exchanges during the day, and I felt this was plenty low enough to lay bets. She finished fourth and remains without a win to her name.

Strobe flashes to victory

Solid returns from both accounts today, and a more than pleasing profit of more than 12 points for the day. I had five win bets, of which the first and last, Fitzroy Crossing and Strobe, were first past the post.

All three of my lay selections were overturned, for a combined profit of 8 points. Ballroom Dancer was contesting a handicap race over a mile at Haydock this afternoon. The filly has a class 5 maiden to her name, but today she was racing 2 classes higher, and in handicap company where all but one horse was rated higher. I felt the price of 6/4 was an overestimation of her chances of winning, and went against her for 3 points. She finished last.

Blog shout!

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Wednesday racing summary

No movement on the account today, as the lay bets profited to make up for another poor show from the win bets.

I suggested 3 horses to oppose this afternoon, including Merchant Of Dubai in the Nursery race at Newcastle. He had won his maiden at this level last time out, but today he was giving a weight advantage to most of his rivals, and this was to be exaggerrated by a step up in trip. I was looking for a price of 9/4 or below, but I happily matched at a grossly over-bet 6/4 for 4 points. He finished fourth. I also got Ashmal beaten later in the afternoon, but my bet against El Alamein at Yarmouth didn't go ahead because his price never went low enough for me.

Tuesday racing summary

I drew a blank today, with four win bets failing to score.

I reclaimed a single point with a successful lay bet against Toy Top at Catterick. On her best form of last year, this race should have been within her compass. Stepping down to class 6 and having fallen in the weights, I imagine these were reasons for her favouritism in the morning. However, when I inspected the form closer she just does not seem to be getting close to putting her head in front of late. This is why I chose to oppose her. She went close, but not close enough to take my money, and in a similar race next time out I think she can finally get back to winning ways.

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Monday racing summary

The best part of 3 points profit overall today. Starry Messenger was my well-backed winner from three bets. Prices up to 13/8 could be matched on the exchanges this morning, before the price was backed down to 6/5 at the off.

Two losing bets meant a small loss on the Win Bet account, but an overall profit was secured with a successful 3 point lay bet against Northern Jem at Ripon. To date his only winning form has been to take a class 5 maiden, yet he was favourite to win this morning, in a handicap race in a higher class, and 2 furlongs further than he had ever raced. I was happy to lay him for 3 points if I could get matched at around 11/4 and punters brought the price tumbling down as low as 2/1 on the exchanges.

Sunday racing summary and weekly results

Well, if you follow my lay bets you will have suffered the same kick to that 'tender area' as me today! Ten points lost after two favourites came in against us.

I made a small profit with one winner at 7/2 from four win bets, but let's examine the damage made by those losing lay bets.

First up, Quick Release won at Chester. I managed to lay this horse at 3/1 which was significantly below the Starting Price of 4/1 so I was happy with this. I know it hurts at the time when the horse wins, but if you can look back and see that you have laid a horse below the SP, and be content with that, then you are starting to think like a professional. Lay horses below SP and you will make profit long-term.

Second selection was Gothenburg at Newbury. He was stepping up in class compared to his previous run in a class 5 maiden, and also moving into handicap company. I did not think a price shorter than evens was representative of his true chance of winning, and I went against him for 7 points. The horse proved me wrong on this occasion and he improved to win comfortably.

A solid performance from the Win Bet account this week, turning in around 5 points profit. But the Lay Bets had a pitiful week, making a big dent in the balance with 18 points lost. No excuses, such results do occur, and it's always a wrench to give back such a large chunk of your winnings in one go. But this is part and parcel of my betting diary, and I will continue to show you how fortunes can twist and turn, warts and all.

Profit for the week: Win Bets 5pts, Lay Bets 18pts loss

Saturday racing summary

A decent winner at 2/1 from two win bets made for a good day backing horses to win today. Peeping Fawn was widely available at up to 3/1 on the exchanges throughout the day, so a respectable 2 point profit overall.

A dark day for the lay bet account however. Look Busy was stepping up in class and into handicap company for the first time. The handicapper had also positioned the filly off the highest mark, so she would be giving weight away to all her competitors. So I was happy to oppose her. As it turned out, the handicapper didn't saddle her with enough of a penalty, and she improved to win, taking more than 8 points from me. There was small recompense when I successfully opposed Regent's Secret at Hamilton this evening, but it's not been the best of starts to the month on this side of the account, if that's not too much of an understatement.

Game, Third Set, and match

Two win bets and one winner at Goodwood made for a satisfying day today. Third Set scored a powerful victory at a starting price of 5/2 although better value at up to 7/2 was available during the day.

I had lined up Costume as my horse to oppose this afternoon, in the Oak Tree Stakes - a Group 3 race. Although this filly has raced credibly at this high level, there is still no getting away from the fact that she has only ever won a class 5 maiden. I was comfortable laying bets against her at 10/3 or lower, but the price didn't fall much below 4/1 and so she goes down as a 'no bet'.

So at the end of a sunny afternoon on the Sussex Downs we are 2.5 points better off.