Loose Connections

Another relatively quite day, but this time no movement on the account overall. From four proposed win bets, a non-runner and two horses being much shorter than I anticipated meant we only had one final selection, which was Timber Treasure at Ripon. The horse was unplaced, and so a single point lost to the account.

This lost point was regained when I successfully saw Guest Connections overturned at Ripon. Admittedly he lost by only a nose, then how many times have our win bets lost by just a nose? Whether he lost by a nose or 28 lengths he still lost and the lay bet takes the stakes. Guest Connections has a low strike rate with only three wins from 33 starts, and hadn't put his nose in front for almost two years. As short as 11/4 on the exchanges I thought it was a value bet to say he would fail again today. I was very nearly wrong, which means I was right.