Wednesday, May 02, 2007

Last Sovereign sees me quids in

A much better day enjoyed today than of late, as both accounts returned a welcome profit. From my three win bets, two returned to the Winner's Enclosure and netted a 6 point profit. Cee Bargara was available to back on the exchanges at 10/3 before going off at 9/4 and even better value was Rare Coincidence at 7/2 on Betfair.

I suggested we oppose three of the warmest favourites of the day, and all three were successfully overturned. The shortest of these was Last Sovereign at 4/7 odds on, who was running at Kempton this evening. Laying odds-on favourites in handicaps is almost a hobby of mine. Why punters will readily accept such a ridiculously short price on a horse in a race where every runner is supposed (theoretically at least) to have an equal chance at the weights, is completely beyond me. Today, Last Sovereign was also stepping up slightly in trip, and also carrying 6lb more than for his last win. Sure, you could argue he would take these challenges in his stride - but a price of 4/7 represents a 64% chance of winning, when each horse in this 14 runner race should theoretically have a much lower 7% chance. Indeed, today he found a horse that would beat him, and we collected.

Over 9 points profit to add to the account overall once evening racing had finished.

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