Monday, January 29, 2007

Monday racing summary

Today was one of those days when my value philosophy did not pay dividends -- at least not on the face of it. I proposed four horses to back this morning. Three of them won, and the fourth came home second. Unfortunately, the only horse to reach my suggested value price was, you guessed it, the horse that didn't win.

Doubtless I will get a few emails from new members saying my system is 'rubbish' because instead of picking up 2 or 3 points profit today, we ended up a point down. But in the long run you will only make a profit from betting if you consistently achieve value for money when you strike a bet. Sure we often miss short-priced winners, and we missed three today. But betting to value prices means we also avoid many, many short-priced losers.

Avoiding these value-less losers means we make a profit long term, and that is where we need to be looking -- long term. Today was just a day -- one day -- in my (and yours) betting career, and I know from experience to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. So far this month I have produced a profit in excess of 70 points backing horses to value, so I figure my methods must have some merits.

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